ATL: HARVEY - Models

[PTrackerLA]

Back offshore/on the coast at 72

[Janie2006]

Wow GFS not wanting to move Harvey much at all on this run. I don't understand how the trough has little to no effect on Harvey in this run. Either going to be a big winner or a big loser..

Probably because GFS has the trough in the Northeast, really, so it doesn't pick up the system.

[tolakram]

Back to the coast.

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF fairly close to the 0Z run. Slightly farther S on Sunday AM and a hint stronger. Check it all out yourself: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

[Steve]

Looking more and more likely Harvey's going to landfall north of Corpus Christi - Somewhere between Rockport and Port O'Connor.

Agreed. If it moves in at the wrong angle for where you are at a given location and you sit on the perimeter for 4-5-6 hours rather than getting a few destructive bands in, get a break and then you get the other side, I don't know what's worse. Probably being under the eyewall. So hopefully that's farther north than the city as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=485

Looking at the 12z ECMWF at 500mb, you can see what happens. There's a big push of high pressure coming in at the end of 72 hours from the west coast. It's going to eventually get drawn up in front of that most likely.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Back onshore

[Wx_Warrior]

Thats Cat 1-ish in Port O'Connor area

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF significantly weaker/farther west than 0Z. Would be great news for Houston who wouldn't have to deal with a cat 3 landfall, but bad news for Corpus who would have to deal with even more extended impact. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/texas/sea-level-pressure/20170828-0600z.html

[Wx_Warrior]

[tolakram]

[OntarioEggplant]

Wow the 12Z Euro has moved significantly closer to the GFS... We finally have some decent agreement!! Not good news for the flooding situation in South Central and southeast Texas though

[OntarioEggplant]

12Z Euro also has a max 59.66" of rain in southeast Texas at hour 150

[tolakram]

Next Friday!

[mcheer23]

12Z Euro also has a max 59.66" of rain in southeast Texas at hour 150

Where in SE Texas

[OntarioEggplant]

12Z Euro also has a max 59.66" of rain in southeast Texas at hour 150

Where in SE Texas

Near Port Lavaca and Victoria

[Wx_Warrior]

euro

[tolakram]

I'm not sold on any model solution yet. I think it will get back over water, but then what is still up in the air IMO.

[Wx_Warrior]

Another interesting run, this time from EURO. Will it lean & commit to GFS? Have to call that the 10th wonder of the world.

[Stormcenter]

Nothing to back up what I'm to state so don't flame me, just my opinion. I think both the EURO and GFS are out to lunch. I just cannot fathom Harvey being around
the same general area a week from today. Not with the constantly changing weather patterns. Something is going to pick-up Harvey much sooner than Thursday and Friday.
Like I said just my opinion.