ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave C]

You can see drier air pulling in to radar presentation off extreme south Texas, eroding rain bands in southern semicircle.

[jlauderdal]

The NHC is always extra conservative at major intensity milestones... INVEST>TC, TS>Hurricane, Hurricane > Major.

Their forecasting skill is still second to none, but when classifying storms they act like picky art critics.

they call it like they see it and use science instead of trying to create headlines..everyone has been warned regardless and there should be no excuses..we need to be able to trust what they are seeing and not wondering if this is a time they artificially increased or decreased...if you are told too evacuate and you dont because its not a major then TS and that doesnt stand for tropical storm

[txwatcher91]

If the Euro/GFS idea is correct, this will basically stall in the Corpus Christi to Victoria area through Tuesday at least, with a good chunk of the storm still over water. Weakening would be much slower and the rain would likely be more intense due to a stronger system pulling moisture inland.

[Ntxw]

Latest RGB image

[MGC]

NAS Corpus Christi reporting 35KTS gust to 45KTS...MGC

[FireRat]

Harvey certainly looks like a Cat 3, at least. Darn, if this storm was in the WPAC it probably would be estimated at 115 kts based on appearance. The storm is going to be at least comparable to Ike, so that's bad enough y'all. Leave now if in the path and near water!!

[Hammy]

You can see drier air pulling in to radar presentation off extreme south Texas, eroding rain bands in southern semicircle.

Big dry slot in the western eyewall showing up on satellite as well.

[Janie2006]

If people haven't prepared/evacuated by now then they're stuck where they are, or are very close to being so. That's a pretty good reason for heeding the advisories, yes? Now is the time to have the hatches battened, not going sightseeing or trying to drive to the Circle K.

And I do have a lot to say about language and rhetoric regarding NOAA. Now isn't the time or place to get into it, but I think they have invested a lot of time and money into the language currently being used to reach Jane Q. Public....there are issues there well beyond NHC's purview.

[JPmia]

At this rate I hope it is a cat 2 at landfall. If two of the costliest storms on record are "only cat 2s" at landfall, maybe people will stop with this absurd fascination of "major hurricanes".

Seems to be a case study on the limitations of the Saffir Simpson Scale.. Cat 2 winds, but Cat 4/5 storm surge/flooding potential.

[Yellow Evan]

Harvey certainly looks like a Cat 3, at least. Darn, if this storm was in the WPAC it probably would be estimated at 115 kts based on appearance. The storm is going to be at least comparable to Ike, so that's bad enough y'all. Leave now if in the path and near water!!

Dvorak estimates are at T5.0/90 knots right now, so if anything it'd be a bit weaker.

[SoupBone]

You can see drier air pulling in to radar presentation off extreme south Texas, eroding rain bands in southern semicircle.

Big dry slot in the western eyewall showing up on satellite as well.

Can you post a link, please?

[AubreyStorm]

Vía Twitter

88D Radar detecting winds of 140+ MPH in the eye of #Harvey

[FLpanhandle91]

Folks. That is no dry spot. That is the opening of a much larger eye! The inner eye wall has finally dissipated. Supported on radar and goes-16. Get ready for lift off!

[CrazyC83]

The categories don't mean much in terms of impacts. Whether winds are 105, 110, 120 or 130 mph, the wind only impacts a relatively small area. The storm surge and (especially) rainfall will be much more impacting - and likely catastrophic. It's all splitting hairs...

[RL3AO]

Check out the new thunderstorm forming on the western eyewall.

[BYG Jacob]

You can see drier air pulling in to radar presentation off extreme south Texas, eroding rain bands in southern semicircle.

Big dry slot in the western eyewall showing up on satellite as well.

Can you post a link, please?

This maybe?

[Aric Dunn]

Check out the new thunderstorm forming on the western eyewall.

that convection inside the eye is the remains of the old eyewall still trying to maintian. the eye is about twice that .. still needs to clear out.

[SoupBone]

Am I reading this correctly? 30kts shear over pushing past Houston?

[RL3AO]

Am I reading this correctly? 30kts shear over pushing past Houston?

Shear maps are incredibly misleading with strong hurricanes. They modify the environment so much.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, looks like that eye is just offshore now. Coming in quickly. May make landfall by 8:00 or 9:00 like some were saying