ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

USAF hasn't reached center yet but just reported raw data FL 117 knots and SFMR 98 knots.

[artist]

USAF
182900 2718N 09604W 6971 02919 9763 +115 +109 148110 112 079 003 01
182930 2717N 09605W 6962 02904 9727 +118 +113 149113 114 084 004 01
183000 2716N 09606W 6970 02874 9719 +120 //// 149115 116 088 011 01
183030 2715N 09607W 6967 02853 9704 +126 +126 153115 117 092 010 00
183100 2715N 09608W 6966 02828 9669 +138 +138 160115 117 094 009 00
183130 2714N 09609W 6978 02790 9636 +147 +147 164108 113 098 007 00
183200 2713N 09610W 6958 02797 9597 +137 //// 167098 106 097 005 05
$$
;

[BYG Jacob]

Recon plane found pressure at 943

[Langinbang187]

Alright enough is enough. This is a category 3 Hurricane.

[RL3AO]

Alright enough is enough. This is a category 3 Hurricane.

They'll upgrade by 2pm CT when the position statement comes out.

[tarheelprogrammer]

These winds are at the top of the scale.........but no cat 3?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Alright enough is enough. This is a category 3 Hurricane.

Agreed. This is a major..

[ronjon]

182800 2720N 09601W 6967 02955 //// +115 //// 147104 106 075 002 01
182830 2719N 09602W 6968 02936 //// +114 //// 146108 109 077 002 01
182900 2718N 09604W 6971 02919 9763 +115 +109 148110 112 079 003 01
182930 2717N 09605W 6962 02904 9727 +118 +113 149113 114 084 004 01
183000 2716N 09606W 6970 02874 9719 +120 //// 149115 116 088 011 01
183030 2715N 09607W 6967 02853 9704 +126 +126 153115 117 092 010 00
183100 2715N 09608W 6966 02828 9669 +138 +138 160115 117 094 009 00
183130 2714N 09609W 6978 02790 9636 +147 +147 164108 113 098 007 00

That should be enough for an upgrade.

Can someone point to the column with surface winds listed?

[Exalt]

These winds are at the top of the scale.........but no cat 3?

It'll be upgraded most likely at 3PM EDT/2PM CDT

[jdjaguar]

182800 2720N 09601W 6967 02955 //// +115 //// 147104 106 075 002 01
182830 2719N 09602W 6968 02936 //// +114 //// 146108 109 077 002 01
182900 2718N 09604W 6971 02919 9763 +115 +109 148110 112 079 003 01
182930 2717N 09605W 6962 02904 9727 +118 +113 149113 114 084 004 01
183000 2716N 09606W 6970 02874 9719 +120 //// 149115 116 088 011 01
183030 2715N 09607W 6967 02853 9704 +126 +126 153115 117 092 010 00
183100 2715N 09608W 6966 02828 9669 +138 +138 160115 117 094 009 00
183130 2714N 09609W 6978 02790 9636 +147 +147 164108 113 098 007 00

That should be enough for an upgrade.

Can someone point to the column with surface winds listed?

Third from the right

[Texashawk]

Sure seems like he's moving almost due north over the last hour or two. He's pretty close to Corpus Christi's latitude at this point. If I live near Matagorda Bay, should I start getting nervous?

[Exalt]

This doesn't look like dry air to me, that'd be too irregular, definitely the eye, you can see the storms intensifying around the larger eye, there's just slight banding in relation to the old eye for some reason attempting to stay afloat, OR the old eye is contracting extremely fast.

[Cunxi Huang]

flight-level 117 kt, SFMR 98 kt, really enough for a cat 3. Let's wait for 19z NHC update.

[tolakram]

182800 2720N 09601W 6967 02955 //// +115 //// 147104 106 075 002 01
182830 2719N 09602W 6968 02936 //// +114 //// 146108 109 077 002 01
182900 2718N 09604W 6971 02919 9763 +115 +109 148110 112 079 003 01
182930 2717N 09605W 6962 02904 9727 +118 +113 149113 114 084 004 01
183000 2716N 09606W 6970 02874 9719 +120 //// 149115 116 088 011 01
183030 2715N 09607W 6967 02853 9704 +126 +126 153115 117 092 010 00
183100 2715N 09608W 6966 02828 9669 +138 +138 160115 117 094 009 00
183130 2714N 09609W 6978 02790 9636 +147 +147 164108 113 098 007 00

That should be enough for an upgrade.

Can someone point to the column with surface winds listed?

109
112
114
116
117
117
113

That's flight level (or 1 second, I can't find the darn key). Surface of 98kts (the next column) should be enough for a cat 3, 96kts required.

[artist]

182800 2720N 09601W 6967 02955 //// +115 //// 147104 106 075 002 01
182830 2719N 09602W 6968 02936 //// +114 //// 146108 109 077 002 01
182900 2718N 09604W 6971 02919 9763 +115 +109 148110 112 079 003 01
182930 2717N 09605W 6962 02904 9727 +118 +113 149113 114 084 004 01
183000 2716N 09606W 6970 02874 9719 +120 //// 149115 116 088 011 01
183030 2715N 09607W 6967 02853 9704 +126 +126 153115 117 092 010 00
183100 2715N 09608W 6966 02828 9669 +138 +138 160115 117 094 009 00
183130 2714N 09609W 6978 02790 9636 +147 +147 164108 113 098 007 00

That should be enough for an upgrade.

Can someone point to the column with surface winds listed?

Lower of each line, third from right, example I've hilghb lighted in red bottom line

[BYG Jacob]

NOAA2 doing donuts around the center, looking for a specific drop point?

[jdjaguar]

182800 2720N 09601W 6967 02955 //// +115 //// 147104 106 075 002 01
182830 2719N 09602W 6968 02936 //// +114 //// 146108 109 077 002 01
182900 2718N 09604W 6971 02919 9763 +115 +109 148110 112 079 003 01
182930 2717N 09605W 6962 02904 9727 +118 +113 149113 114 084 004 01
183000 2716N 09606W 6970 02874 9719 +120 //// 149115 116 088 011 01
183030 2715N 09607W 6967 02853 9704 +126 +126 153115 117 092 010 00
183100 2715N 09608W 6966 02828 9669 +138 +138 160115 117 094 009 00
183130 2714N 09609W 6978 02790 9636 +147 +147 164108 113 098 007 00

That should be enough for an upgrade.

Can someone point to the column with surface winds listed?

109
112
114
116
117
117
113

those are flight level readings in the 4th column (from the right)

[BYG Jacob]

Can someone point to the column with surface winds listed?

109
112
114
116
117
117
113

That's flight level (or 1 second, I can't find the darn key). Surface of 98kts (the next column) should be enough for a cat 3, 96kts required.

My bad, I'm used to MPH, not knots.

[RL3AO]

If I live near Matagorda Bay, should I start getting nervous?

Um...that's gonna be ground zero for surge, rain, and maybe near the right side of the eyewall.

[Praxus]

Looks like a pinhole eye now. Would be very surprised not to see Cat 3 at the next update.