ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

At least it looks like the Corpus Christi metro area will miss the worst case scenario, although it'll still be bad there.

[NDG]

Eye is warming, don't expect any kind of weakening the next few hours.

https://i.imgbox.com/q1LaPU9L.gif

And outflow is expanding to its SW quadrant, something that was missing yesterday.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Eye is warming, don't expect any kind of weakening the next few hours.

It is making a run at cat 4 that is for sure. Recon hitting center again anytime soon?

[Steve]

It has a good 10 hrs if not a little longer over water so there is still a good chance for Cat 4, IMO.

Jeez another 10 hours... Yeah there shouldn't be a problem for it then. It'll be making landfall when people are sleeping...

Unless it skids at the coast or takes a N jog farther than it has, it just seems like it will be at the shore way quicker than that. I trust NDG more than I trust myself. But if you look at the 7 1/2 hour run of the Visible Loop, it closed way more ground than it has left in that time. I think maybe 5-6 hours?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[artist]

Is southerngal still in Beaumont? Twc said there is flooding there already

[Portaransas]

Looking at radar, if it maintains current speed, it can't have more than 4 hours more until landfall.

[Extratropical94]

Eye is warming, don't expect any kind of weakening the next few hours.

https://i.imgbox.com/q1LaPU9L.gif

It is making a run at cat 4 that is for sure. Recon hitting center again anytime soon?

NOAA plane went in just a few minutes ago. 941.5 extrapolated and maximum FL winds of 120 in NE quadrant.

[GCANE]

Damn.
The convective cap is lifting along the coast.
Also the shrinking eye and due north track.
Another round of RI could be in the works soon.

[Hurrilurker]

Looking at radar, if it maintains current speed, it can't have more than 4 hours more until landfall.

If so that could be bad since the pressure still dropping (now 942 apparently) and if the winds are cranking up as it hits shore that won't be good. Then again, I guess more time could allow it to strengthen more, but ERCs might disrupt and weaken it too.

[MrStormX]

Radar shows strong convection attempting to wrap around the eye in all quadrants.

[xironman]

At least it looks like the Corpus Christi metro area will miss the worst case scenario, although it'll still be bad there.

With a cyclonic loop in the future you never know

[Exalt]

Damn.
The convective cap is lifting along the coast.
Also the shrinking eye and due north track.
Another round of RI could be in the works soon.

Right on track for landfall as well, I mean, there are far worse worst case scenarios, but out of the options at hand here, this is definitely the worst thing that could've happened, an early EWRC and RI up until landfall as a Cat 3 (and possible Cat 4?).. All I have to say is oh no

[SunnyThoughts]

Showing pic on twc from port aransas with a car half submerged in flood waters already. Nobody in the car though thank goodness. Scratch that...corpus christi is the area. Storm tracker Brandon Clement

[artist]

Eye is warming, don't expect any kind of weakening the next few hours.

It is making a run at cat 4 that is for sure. Recon hitting center again anytime soon?

Yes and here you can see position of both planes if you click on ther and click multiple missions, then go back to missions and click 18 and 19
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium

[JPmia]

I think we're going to hear a lot about the areas of Holiday Beach and Lamar.. just north of Rockport on State Road 35 (LBJ Causeway). Bunch of trailer parks and mostly residential, but square in the path of the core. I hope those folks got out of there.

[HurricaneBrain]

Yes, there are spots here in Beaumont definitely flooded.

Is southerngal still in Beaumont? Twc said there is flooding there already

[northjaxpro]

Damn.
The convective cap is lifting along the coast.
Also the shrinking eye and due north track.
Another round of RI could be in the works soon.
]

Yes GCANE. this is what I think is going on and my worst fears are coming to fruition. Harvey is not yet done bombing out. Incredible!

[ScottNAtlanta]

It has a good 10 hrs if not a little longer over water so there is still a good chance for Cat 4, IMO.

Jeez another 10 hours... Yeah there shouldn't be a problem for it then. It'll be making landfall when people are sleeping...

Unless it skids at the coast or takes a N jog farther than it has, it just seems like it will be at the shore way quicker than that. I trust NDG more than I trust myself. But if you look at the 7 1/2 hour run of the Visible Loop, it closed way more ground than it has left in that time. I think maybe 5-6 hours?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It is forecast to slow dow at some point and I have noticed pressures out west have been rising

[xironman]

Damn.
The convective cap is lifting along the coast.

It is that time of day

[artist]

000
URNT15 KWBC 251921
NOAA2 1809A HARVEY HDOB 32 20170825
191200 2737N 09615W 7468 02399 9835 +147 +133 105096 097 063 005 00
191230 2736N 09616W 7446 02406 9813 +147 +130 103100 102 068 006 00
191300 2734N 09617W 7411 02415 9778 +148 +136 103104 105 072 012 00
191330 2732N 09618W 7358 02447 9744 +144 +135 100109 113 074 017 00
191400 2730N 09619W 7357 02414 9700 +149 //// 103113 115 085 017 01
191430 2728N 09620W 7309 02426 9654 +144 //// 103118 120 093 018 01
191500 2726N 09621W 7236 02460 9591 +152 //// 106109 118 095 011 01
191530 2724N 09622W 7243 02413 9539 +161 +152 106085 087 094 007 00
191600 2722N 09623W 7238 02381 9495 +167 +151 104069 074 082 004 00
191630 2721N 09624W 7170 02435 9455 +170 +162 100050 055 061 004 00
191700 2719N 09625W 7145 02448 9429 +175 +160 098030 036 037 004 00
191730 2717N 09626W 7214 02357 9416 +187 +153 097009 015 016 002 00
191800 2715N 09627W 7173 02405 9419 +182 +159 313010 017 014 002 00
191830 2713N 09628W 7140 02460 9428 +185 +153 293030 038 017 002 00
191900 2711N 09627W 7210 02393 9446 +187 +154 275045 050 020 002 03
191930 2711N 09624W 7203 02400 9446 +188 +156 254049 051 /// /// 03
192000 2713N 09623W 7152 02445 9431 +183 +158 229040 044 028 002 03
192030 2715N 09623W 7233 02337 9419 +189 +159 199025 029 021 003 00
192100 2717N 09624W 7154 02432 9415 +192 +133 162023 025 018 002 03
192130 2719N 09623W 7159 02432 9432 +180 +142 141034 041 033 003 00