ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.kristv.com/category/292861/live-stream Great live stream out of corpus

Looks to be a boat,, sitting int he middle of a road

[Ntxw]

It's been a long time since the US coastline has seen such an extraordinary eye of a major, and what an eye it is now.. Whether they give it a 110 or 115kts this is one of the most classic looking hurricanes to make landfall on the mainland.

[RL3AO]

For the record this is my 12th chase.

But I do understand the moderation of posts.

I will report what I see.

I'm glad you have some experience. I'm a little worried that you're talking about driving at night into a hurricane. You should have already been positioned there now. This will likely be a category 4 at landfall. Driving towards the center is crazy. Doing it at night is downright insane.

[Cunxi Huang]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.

we are having a top cat 3 here...

[ConvergenceZone]

About 3 more hours until landfall. We'll see if this hits Cat 4 status between now and then

[DodgeDemon2018]

So I have been reading that the loop shown in the EURO and GFS have shifted more west causing the storm to go well north of the South East Texas area. So is this final or is it still coming as NOAA still has it headed towards Galveston? I guess nobody will really know until it gets closer as these things are changing so fast, but it seems to be a complete miss of Houston right?

I guess, if you consider several feet of rain to be a "complete miss".

I just meant is the eye of the hurricane going to cross over Galveston as predicted. I understand the rain issue.

[NDG]

From the last dropsonde on the NE quadrant:

Mean wind in the lowest 300 ft: 118 knots

[Callista]

For the record this is my 12th chase.

But I do understand the moderation of posts.

I will report what I see.

I'm glad you have some experience. I'm a little worried that you're talking about driving at night into a hurricane. You should have already been positioned there now. This will likely be a category 4 at landfall. Driving towards the center is crazy. Doing it at night is downright insane.

I agree--I think they should stay where they are and wait for the next one. Riding out a hurricane in a strong building is fine, but in a car, it's foolhardy.

[galveston-d]

Lots of Tornado Warnings, the less talked about hazard with Harvey...

I am in Galveston and very tempted to turn my phone off - every 15 minutes another tornado warning/watch! On the radar I spotted one curve that could have been a tornado less than a mile from me - that was a while back.I shouldn't be this way but I find the constant blare of alarms from my phone annoying. We are safe as we can be.

[jdjaguar]

For the record this is my 12th chase.

But I do understand the moderation of posts.

I will report what I see.

For the record, in my opinion 11pm way too late for departure.

If you must chase, I would leave now.

Be safe.

[ColdFusion]

NHC pulling back on bit on the northward crawl possibility in the latest advisory

In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week.

[Callista]

Lots of Tornado Warnings, the less talked about hazard with Harvey...

I am in Galveston and very tempted to turn my phone off - every 15 minutes another tornado warning/watch! On the radar I spotted one curve that could have been a tornado less than a mile from me - that was a while back.I shouldn't be this way but I find the constant blare of alarms from my phone annoying. We are safe as we can be.

If you are already in your tornado shelter I don't see why you can't just put your phone on silent. It's not like you can take shelter when you're already in shelter. You're going to have to get some sleep sometime.

[RL3AO]

I understand the rain issue.

The rain is THE issue for the Houston area. We're talking about potentially the one of the worst flooding events in American history centered near Houston.

[Kazmit]

From the discussion:

Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength.

6-12 hours? I thought it was more like 3 hours...

[Callista]

Its speed has been rather erratic lately. It slows down, then leaps ahead quickly for no seeming reason.

[tolakram]

20:49z

[gatorcane]

Wonder if the storm2k users online record will be broken? I think the record was from Matthew bearing down on Florida from last year (though it says May):

In total there are 1373 users online :: 183 registered, 12 hidden and 1178 guests (based on users active over the past 15 minutes)
Most users ever online was 1581 on Mon May 29, 2017 2:08 pm

[artist]

http://www.kristv.com/category/292861/live-stream Great live stream out of corpus

Yesterday it worked fine for me. Today can't get past the commercial. Grrr

[Ntxw]

I understand the rain issue.

The rain is THE issue for the Houston area. We're talking about potentially the one of the worst flooding events in American history centered near Houston.

The whole area from Corpus to Houston may see in excess of 20-60" of rainfall! And Texas is a big state, that is some hefty real estate. 2-5 feet of rain..

[DodgeDemon2018]

So I have been reading that the loop shown in the EURO and GFS have shifted more west causing the storm to go well north of the South East Texas area. So is this final or is it still coming as NOAA still has it headed towards Galveston? I guess nobody will really know until it gets closer as these things are changing so fast, but it seems to be a complete miss of Houston right?

I guess, if you consider several feet of rain to be a "complete miss".

It's enough to cause a lot of trouble, but even if Houston gets only a "complete miss" with a couple feet of rain and some flooding, I'll feel they've dodged a bullet.

Red Cross has set up shelters and is preparing to respond, of course, as usual.

I am talking about the second loop I am wondering if the eye is hittinf Houston. Will this be a wind issue.