ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Steve]

Nothing to back up what I'm to state so don't flame me, just my opinion. I think both the EURO and GFS are out to lunch. I just cannot fathom Harvey being around
the same general area a week from today. Not with the constantly changing weather patterns. Something is going to pick-up Harvey much sooner than Thursday and Friday.
Like I said just my opinion.

It sure is atypical for August. But the models are sort of coming around in one form or another as they sort of hinted at all week (with some diversions) that there would be a long slow resolution process for Harvey. Good luck up there man.

[BRweather]

Lets all remember guys

This is days 5-7. There are still a TON of model runs left and you can bet they are still going to change.

Lets not all jump on one solution after 12 hours because in another 12-24 hours it might be completely different.

[Steve]

Lets all remember guys

This is days 5-7. There are still a TON of model runs left and you can bet they are still going to change.

Lets not all jump on one solution after 12 hours because in another 12-24 hours it might be completely different.

I'm sure that no one is 100% on the NHC track or any specific model. And certainly in the sub-tropics like the tropics, things can change on a dime. But working with the modeling you can pretty much be sure there are a good 3+ days of rain ahead for South Texas and maybe another 2 or 3 after that.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The euro had a run real similar to this, I believe two nights ago on the 0z, but then the next 5 runs showed an east track into the gulf then up into south LA. So yes it did side with the gfs temporarily but could do another 180 and all change come tonight's runs .

[stormreader]

I'm not sold on any model solution yet. I think it will get back over water, but then what is still up in the air IMO.

Yes. The whole situation with the stall and the loop. Most assuredly, the hurricane will come to basic stop near landfall. But what will the nature of that "stop" be. Will it go inland 25 miles or so?? or will it wobble in circles right along the coast?? Sort of in and out, up and down.... I'm of a mind to think that Harvey will hug the coast with the stall doing this wobbling thing. In that case it still draws strength from the Gulf, and the weakening is much slower. After that the movement....looking more likely that it will move up into the E Texas mainland, but not a done deal. Still several days away, the relationship between the competing ridges could change.

[utweather]

GFS run, now back and trapped with dissipation over TX.

Wow, that is gonna be some serious flooding in south central texas overflowing back to the coast on that run. I was thinking there was a possibility of it going further nw towards west central Texas in no mans land and dying there but idk now.

[PTrackerLA]

The euro had a run real similar to this, I believe two nights ago on the 0z, but then the next 5 runs showed an east track into the gulf then up into south LA. So yes it did side with the gfs temporarily but could do another 180 and all change come tonight's runs .

Model runs have been much more favorable for Louisiana today and QPF values have fallen considerably. We'll see if this holds.

[South Texas Storms]

The euro had a run real similar to this, I believe two nights ago on the 0z, but then the next 5 runs showed an east track into the gulf then up into south LA. So yes it did side with the gfs temporarily but could do another 180 and all change come tonight's runs .

Model runs have been much more favorable for Louisiana today and QPF values have fallen considerably. We'll see if this holds.

Yeah there's been a decent westward shift in the guidance today.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

They sure did. But unfortunately this looks like something that's not going to move out tomorrow, Sunday, or Monday so many more model flip flops to come

[Steve]

They sure did. But unfortunately this looks like something that's not going to move out tomorrow, Sunday, or Monday so many more model flip flops to come

Usually as strong storms weaken, the feeder bands start wrapping out. While it appears many of us in LA but not in SWLA dodged a bullet, all it takes is one feeder band sitting over you N/S or NW/SE to get you.

[randall27]

Hopefully it stays shifted west, we are basically stuck on a platform offshore south of Louisiana.

[cajungal]

Way too early to say Louisiana dodged a bullet. Looking better for now for SE Louisiana. But not set in stone what Harvey will do after Texas. Could possibly still get in the gulf and come further east. I am still watching and got my can goods and water just in case.

[HurricaneBrain]

H90

[Steve]

Way too early to say Louisiana dodged a bullet. Looking better for now for SE Louisiana. But not set in stone what Harvey will do after Texas. Could possibly still get in the gulf and come further east. I am still watching and got my can goods and water just in case.

I didn't say we dodged a bullet just that we appear to have. 1) We aren't about to experience a landfalling major hurricane today; and 2) models have been showing less of a threat with time. That doesn't mean there won't be bad effects in SE/SC LA under specific conditions. The farther west the less likely one will get off without bigger effects. Y'all in Terrebonne are closer to the action, and certainly over toward Morgan City and Patterson they have had some nasty bands today already. Stay safe down that way. You're much closer to the heavier rainfall prognostications. 7 Day per GFS 12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 6&ypos=769

[Steve]

H90

Almost where it's at now brain!

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z has 0Z position where it is now.

[ROCK]

GFS doesn't look like it wants to take it in much?

[tolakram]

Run is In, back out, in and dissipate by 144 hours.

[tolakram]

[Garnetcat5]

Where can I find the models. Close to brazos river no one is saying evacuate but khou show brazos at Richmond flooding I'm freaking run to Albuquerque to my daughters or stay omg