ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

What's the hold up with the 10pm update?

[wxman57]

Just heard them say that the waves and surges in Galveston shouldn't get worse, I think it is way too early to say that with a possibility of this staying at or near the coast for almost a week, that would cause tides, surges and waves to build up the whole time.

Not with the winds continuing to decrease. Peak will be tonight.

[floridasun78]

TWC: Reports of building collapse in Rockport... please tell me its not the same place as that livestream was

yes their say home want down in rockport likely jeff house

[JaxGator]

Really hoping this doesn't become the El Reno of Hurricane chasers.

What's that?

The El Reno tornado in 2013 was the first time storm chasers actually died from a tornado while chasing. It killed even professional scientific chasers like Tim Samaras.

Oh man, that would be horrible to think about, but thankfully, they're ok.

[Nate-Gillson]

Jeff P must be feeling very relieved that the eye is finally reaching his location.

[wxman57]

What's the hold up with the 10pm update?

Another west shift, probably. West of Matagorda Bay for next Mon-Wed. No, just came in. Gets as far east as 96W. About 30 miles west between days 4-5.

[1900hurricane]

15.8ºC eye temp is actually the warmest yet.

[MetroMike]

Official landfall now

[yzerfan]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be
complete.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Harvey has
just made landfall on the Texas coast over the northern end of San
Jose Island about 4 miles (6 km) east of Rockport. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to slow its forward motion and move slowly over
southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours while the center of Harvey is over southeastern Texas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at
Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 111 mph (178 km/h)
and a wind gust of 131 mph (211 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over
through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...9 to 13 ft
Port O'Connor to Sargent...6 to 9 ft
N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Port Aransas...5 to 8 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...4 to 6 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...3 to 5 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring along the coast in the Port
Aransas to Port O'Connor area and should spread over other portions
of the hurricane warning area during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in other portions of the
hurricane and tropical storm warning areas. Tropical storm
conditions are likely to persist along portions of the coast through
at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Siker]

Jeff is online again!

[KC7NEC]

What's the hold up with the 10pm update?

My guess is they want to get it right. Awaiting landfall and want the speed and pressure correct.

[artist]

Jeff is back up
https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1DXGyOrdzvPxM

[tolakram]

Jeff is online again!

Are you sure you're not watching the recorded video? Still offline for me.

[Kingarabian]

Jeff is online again!

It's online? Keeps giving me the replay.

[Ntxw]

15.8ºC eye temp is actually the warmest yet.

http://i.imgur.com/MFATHWd.gif

I have been in awe of the eye all evening. Storms just don't do this as they make landfall. Andrew being one of the best cases.

[CryHavoc]

Jeff is online again!

Are you sure you're not watching the recorded video? Still offline for me.

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1BdxYWPqQvAG ... broadcasts

Definitely online now.

[sbcc]

Jeff is online again!

It's online? Keeps giving me the replay.

Jeff is back. Blue shed, gone. https://www.periscope.tv/w/1BdxYWPqQvAGX

EDIT: Reports of the demise of the blue shed were premature. IT LIVES!

[MetroMike]

Jeff is back up
https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1DXGyOrdzvPxM

They wont be driving out of there.

[Sanibel]

The angle is just right right now for a serious surge ram up San Antonio Bay...

[1900hurricane]

Jeff is online again!

Are you sure you're not watching the recorded video? Still offline for me.

New link here:

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BdxYWPqQvAGX