ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

IMO, based on videos taken during the eyewall, I think Harvey was stronger than 115kts at landfall. Maybe 120kts or 125kts.

[swampgator92]

As far as wind damage goes, the areas that got the worst winds (Cat 2 Sustained, Cat 3/4 Gusts) had a population of 10,000 or so people. If this had hit 30 miles to the south, it would have barreled into metro Corpus Christi with a population of half a million.

The worst surge appears to have hit national wildlife refuges where birds live.

The damage in Rockport I've seen are not the cataclysmic total destruction of concrete block buildings you see in a Hurricane Andrew. Mobile homes and manufactured homes did poorly but that's to be expected in Cat 2 winds. There are isolated pockets of total destruction but all in all not so bad considering the hype.

We'll see what happens with the flooding. That has the potential to be really bad especially in the metro areas like Houston, San Antonio, and Austin if the feeder bands hit in bad spots but the area that will get the most rain is cow country too. Lots and lots of lots of nothing.

It reminds me a little of that Cat 4 storm that hit cow country in Texas and bothered nobody.

This could have been sooooooooooooooooooooooo much worse. Nothing compared to Andrew.

[galvbay]

"It reminds me a little of that Cat 4 storm that hit cow country in Texas and bothered nobody."

Opinions will vary on that statement!!

[tolakram]

An example of a local resource you should be following.

 https://twitter.com/NWSCorpus/status/901439539088166912



NWS Corpus Christi ✔ @NWSCorpus
At 8am, Victoria is still seeing wind gusts up to 83 mph with sustained winds at 57 mph. #Harvey
9:41 AM - Aug 26, 2017

That report has been proven wrong due to equipment issues.

No, a rainfall report was wrong, this report stands according to their twitter feed.

 https://twitter.com/NWSCorpus/status/901411448856948736




The 16.12 rainfall report from 2SW Victoria is likely erroneous. We apologize for the inconvenience.
7:50 AM - Aug 26, 2017

[BobHarlem]

As far as wind damage goes, the areas that got the worst winds (Cat 2 Sustained, Cat 3/4 Gusts) had a population of 10,000 or so people. If this had hit 30 miles to the south, it would have barreled into metro Corpus Christi with a population of half a million.

The worst surge appears to have hit national wildlife refuges where birds live.

The damage in Rockport I've seen are not the cataclysmic total destruction of concrete block buildings you see in a Hurricane Andrew. Mobile homes and manufactured homes did poorly but that's to be expected in Cat 2 winds. There are isolated pockets of total destruction but all in all not so bad considering the hype.

We'll see what happens with the flooding. That has the potential to be really bad especially in the metro areas like Houston, San Antonio, and Austin if the feeder bands hit in bad spots but the area that will get the most rain is cow country too. Lots and lots of lots of nothing.

It reminds me a little of that Cat 4 storm that hit cow country in Texas and bothered nobody.

This could have been sooooooooooooooooooooooo much worse. Nothing compared to Andrew.

What reports north of Rockport or the right quad? I haven't seen anything yet. Seems a bit premature to say that.

In fact reports from Rockport have entire apartment builds colllapsed, etc.

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/901453097595265024




 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/901452375180931072

[tolakram]

000
NOUS44 KCRP 261413
PNSCRP
TXZ229>234-239>247-270213-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
913 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...Storm Total Rainfall Reports...

Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon
6 SSE Austwell 14.46 in 0759 AM 08/26 28.30N/96.82W
San Antonio River Near Mcfad 13.82 in 0515 AM 08/26 28.53N/97.04W
6 SSE Austwell 12.45 in 0815 AM 08/26 28.30N/96.82W
Coleto Creek At Arnold Road 9.60 in 0745 AM 08/26 28.86N/97.23W
4 NNE Weesatche 9.17 in 0700 AM 08/26 28.89N/97.38W
Coleto Creek At Arnold Road 8.35 in 0645 AM 08/26 28.86N/97.23W
Garcitas Creek Near Inez 6.85 in 0815 AM 08/26 28.89N/96.82W
4 ENE Victoria 6.28 in 0804 AM 08/26 28.86N/96.92W
1 E Victoria 6.16 in 0418 AM 08/26 28.83N/96.95W
5 W Corpus Christi 3.54 in 0831 AM 08/26 27.70N/97.39W
4 W Three Rivers 3.26 in 0730 AM 08/26 28.47N/98.25W
Corpus Christi Nws 3.25 in 0600 AM 08/26 27.78N/97.51W
5 W Corpus Christi 3.08 in 0701 AM 08/26 27.70N/97.39W
Abv Nueces Rv 2.68 in 0800 AM 08/26 27.93N/97.77W
Abv Nueces Rv 2.44 in 0700 AM 08/26 27.93N/97.77W

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

[tolakram]

SOURCE YOUR INFORMATION



There will be a lot of false reports so be careful to source your information, provide links if at all possible.

[jaguars_22]

We are still having hurricane force gusts and bout 70 sustained

[Frank P]

This is some serious rainfall just north and east of the Houston area and right into Galveston Bay

[Frank P]

Latest radar shot of the Houston area...

[swampgator92]

Look at the map. There's literally nothing where the northeast eyewall and worst winds hit. There's Matagorda Island and Aransas Wildlife Refuge. Fulton, Rockport got the western eyewall and I have seen no official reports of sustained winds greater than Cat 2 anywhere.

[TexWx]

Look at the map. There's literally nothing where the northeast eyewall and worst winds hit. There's Matagorda Island and Aransas Wildlife Refuge. Fulton, Rockport got the western eyewall and I have seen no official reports of sustained winds greater than Cat 2 anywhere.

I guess some of us are trying to see your point?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/901453097595265024



Mike Theiss ✔ @MikeTheiss
Extreme Damage in Rockport, Texas #HurricaneHarvey
10:35 AM - Aug 26, 2017

[forecasterjack]

Latest radar shot of the Houston area...

That band goes all the way back into the GOM. Brownsville radar loop: https://weather.us/radar-us/texas/refle ... .html#play

[tolakram]

Look at the map. There's literally nothing where the northeast eyewall and worst winds hit. There's Matagorda Island and Aransas Wildlife Refuge. Fulton, Rockport got the western eyewall and I have seen no official reports of sustained winds greater than Cat 2 anywhere.

You've given your opinion. Let's see what the day brings.

[JPmia]

Look at the map. There's literally nothing where the northeast eyewall and worst winds hit. There's Matagorda Island and Aransas Wildlife Refuge. Fulton, Rockport got the western eyewall and I have seen no official reports of sustained winds greater than Cat 2 anywhere.

All you have to do is go on Twitter to see the chaser photos coming out of Rockport. Or watch Jeff's video from last night.. he was receiving winds over 130mph with higher gusts. The official weather gauges broke in that area when the higher winds came in. He recorded them. Take a view of the video yourself: https://www.periscope.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1ynKOVjgorvxR

[forecasterjack]

This is some serious rainfall just north and east of the Houston area and right into Galveston Bay

Can see this band on GOES-16. Crazy moisture advection visible as low level clouds race NW under/to the east of that band. Wild setup https://weather.us/satellite/texas/sate ... .html#play

[Hurricane Andrew]

This thing is still far from over. We are looking at literally DAYS of gusty winds and extremely heavy rain, hindering emergency response, and creating life-threatening flooding conditions. I remember the flooding from Irene, which dropped maybe 10-15" over parts of my state. This thing could more than double that in areas that are FAR more prone to flooding than my own. Already damaged/unstable power lines, trees, etc could come down with 50-60mph gusts, which will certainly be ongoing for the duration of this event. This is NOT over.

[swampgator92]

I saw the chaser videos and he was screaming like a lunatic saying 130, 142, 150. He was looking at winds off doppler radar at 3000 feet in the air. He did not receive those winds on the surface. That video as horrible as it looked is consistent with 100 mph to 110 mph sustained winds. If he was in legit Cat 3/Cat 4 sustained winds, he would be dead because his truck would have flipped over.

[yzerfan]

Even if the eye degrades, as long as the skeleton (structure) is still intact, it will easily re-intensify once it loops back over water. I've never heard of landfalling major canes having this complex track modeling. I see this kind of complex setup of strong hurricanes/typhoons more often in the Pacific. Most of the time, the result is awful damage and loss of lives, not because of wind hazard, but because of tremendous volume of water.

Think of the storms that have traversed the Southeast US from like Mobile, AL to the Carolinas and offshore. Advisories have been re-initiated upon hitting the water. It doesn't take much being offshore at all as we already saw Harvey continue to strengthen very close to landfall today.

For a blast from the past, here's one of the later Ivan 2004 discos:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA