ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

will that blob to the sw of fl side be crossing over the state too thanks

I think the big blob off the south coast will eventually go away, now that the trough goes across the entire state maybe we could see a development around Daytona, lets see.

Yeah, the one off Daytona looks more promising.

Right now, JBastardi is saying the low off Tampa Bay could become Irma.

Guess I'll just wait and see.

Can you post a link to that quote? Thanks

[Emmett_Brown]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/901476846562422785




It was this tweet

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central
Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of
Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, this system has
the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression
early next week after it moves off the northeast coast of Florida
on Sunday. The low is forecast to move close to the southeastern
coast of the United States and merge with a cold front by mid-week.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the low is expected to
cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas through early next week. Heavy rain is also
expected to continue over portions of southern and central Florida
during the next day or two. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office for more information on
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[xironman]

Looking at the visibles it should form off the east coast.

[Sanibel]

Rained all night 2nd night in a row...Pond over the berm and into back yard at Tropical Storm levels...


Same weak steering environment as Harvey...If this gets over water it should form...

[GeneratorPower]

Rained all night 2nd night in a row...Pond over the berm and into back yard at Tropical Storm levels...


Same weak steering environment as Harvey...If this gets over water it should form...

This could be a SWFL thing. That blob over the gulf is ominous.

[forecasterjack]

92L is going to have to do a lot to impress me. I guess it's DMIN so I should lower my expectations lol but it's not looking too hot at the moment: https://weather.us/satellite/florida/sa ... .html#play

[Blinhart]

92L is going to have to do a lot to impress me. I guess it's DMIN so I should lower my expectations lol but it's not looking too hot at the moment: https://weather.us/satellite/florida/sa ... .html#play

I think the way this improves and moves will actually have a lot of influence on Harvey I would think.

[forecasterjack]

92L is going to have to do a lot to impress me. I guess it's DMIN so I should lower my expectations lol but it's not looking too hot at the moment: https://weather.us/satellite/florida/sa ... .html#play

I think the way this improves and moves will actually have a lot of influence on Harvey I would think.

That's an interesting thought. I was noticing the influences going the other directions. Anvil motion on that look I linked to showed N shear from Harvey ripping up 92L. But I could see if 92L got its act together somehow and popped a hole in that FL ridge, it could allow Harvey more room to move East. Fascinating setup

[Blinhart]

92L is going to have to do a lot to impress me. I guess it's DMIN so I should lower my expectations lol but it's not looking too hot at the moment: https://weather.us/satellite/florida/sa ... .html#play

I think the way this improves and moves will actually have a lot of influence on Harvey I would think.

That's an interesting thought. I was noticing the influences going the other directions. Anvil motion on that look I linked to showed N shear from Harvey ripping up 92L. But I could see if 92L got its act together somehow and popped a hole in that FL ridge, it could allow Harvey more room to move East. Fascinating setup

I actually just started to think about this, and the setup is very interesting. The timing, location and size of 92L cyclone genesis will have more influence than I had thought of, but now that I am seeing they are saying Harvey can be around 8 to 10 days from now is a scary thought.

[forecasterjack]

I think the way this improves and moves will actually have a lot of influence on Harvey I would think.

That's an interesting thought. I was noticing the influences going the other directions. Anvil motion on that look I linked to showed N shear from Harvey ripping up 92L. But I could see if 92L got its act together somehow and popped a hole in that FL ridge, it could allow Harvey more room to move East. Fascinating setup

I actually just started to think about this, and the setup is very interesting. The timing, location and size of 92L cyclone genesis will have more influence than I had thought of, but now that I am seeing they are saying Harvey can be around 8 to 10 days from now is a scary thought.

I could definitely see it being here 6-7 days from now but most guidance has it either in Oklahoma or Mexico. ECMWF PWAT showing the core in OK by day 7.5: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/95 ... 1800z.html deep tropical moisture left in its wake though. Hopefully there isn't anything to squeeze that moisture out. By then a pop up shower could flood an entire city...

[xironman]

I think the way this improves and moves will actually have a lot of influence on Harvey I would think.

That's an interesting thought. I was noticing the influences going the other directions. Anvil motion on that look I linked to showed N shear from Harvey ripping up 92L. But I could see if 92L got its act together somehow and popped a hole in that FL ridge, it could allow Harvey more room to move East. Fascinating setup

I actually just started to think about this, and the setup is very interesting. The timing, location and size of 92L cyclone genesis will have more influence than I had thought of, but now that I am seeing they are saying Harvey can be around 8 to 10 days from now is a scary thought.

92L will probably be in the vicinity of Hatteras by Tuesday afternoon.

[forecasterjack]

That's an interesting thought. I was noticing the influences going the other directions. Anvil motion on that look I linked to showed N shear from Harvey ripping up 92L. But I could see if 92L got its act together somehow and popped a hole in that FL ridge, it could allow Harvey more room to move East. Fascinating setup

I actually just started to think about this, and the setup is very interesting. The timing, location and size of 92L cyclone genesis will have more influence than I had thought of, but now that I am seeing they are saying Harvey can be around 8 to 10 days from now is a scary thought.

92L will probably be in the vicinity of Hatteras by Tuesday afternoon.

Definitely agree with this. The million dollar question is how strong and in what form... I say weak STS

[xironman]

I actually just started to think about this, and the setup is very interesting. The timing, location and size of 92L cyclone genesis will have more influence than I had thought of, but now that I am seeing they are saying Harvey can be around 8 to 10 days from now is a scary thought.

92L will probably be in the vicinity of Hatteras by Tuesday afternoon.

Definitely agree with this. The million dollar question is how strong and in what form... I say weak STS

I think there will be a decent spin off the east coast of FL by tomorrow. Now the dynamics of that and the front are interesting. My guess is STS transitioning to TC further north. Most models are saying tropical storm force winds off the OBX by Tuesday.

[forecasterjack]

Could be serious coastal flooding in VA if GFS's Irma solution pans out.

[forecasterjack]

how do I upload images here?

[WeatherLovingDoc]

how do I upload images here?

How can you upload images from your own computer ?
viewtopic.php?f=7&t=96553

Posting of images/models/graphics

Any posting of images/models/graphics from a pay subscriber site is not allowed on Storm 2K. However, if the image/model/graphic in question has been shared through social media (Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, etc.) by the subscriber site itself, then the re-posting of that image/model/graphic is acceptable.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=116209

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central
Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of
Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, this system has
the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression
early next week after it moves off the northeast coast of Florida
on Sunday. The low is forecast to move close to the southeastern
coast of the United States and merge with a cold front by mid-week.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the low is expected to
cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas through early next week. Heavy rain is also
expected to continue over portions of the Florida peninsula during
the next day or two. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office for more information on
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[codygo]

Can anyone tell me how to find Harvey Models for my project

[Emmett_Brown]

Can anyone tell me how to find Harvey Models for my project

This page has models and current info for active storms: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/