ATL: HARVEY - Models

[aperson]

Would anyone have ECMWF qpf runs from 00z available? That run looks alarming from a precipitation perspective.

[BRweather]

Would anyone have ECMWF qpf runs from 00z available? That run looks alarming from a precipitation perspective.

It is pretty nasty. Some places look to be approaching close to 60 inches. Definitely an area of 45+ inches where Harvey is now located

[bamajammer4eva]

This is a few days out so could change a bit still which would be better news for Texas but not good news for someone else. If the trough was deeper than shown and picked up Harvey, what would happen? I would guess it would move Northeast over water and as far East as the Mid Louisiana coast would become a possibility as it was shown before?

[BRweather]

This is a few days out so could change a bit still which would be better news for Texas but not good news for someone else. If the trough was deeper than shown and picked up Harvey, what would happen? I would guess it would move Northeast over water and as far East as the Mid Louisiana coast would become a possibility as it was shown before?

If the trough influences it more, I think the furthest east it can realistically go is maybe Cameron parish in extreme SW Louisiana. Because it will still be fighting the ridge over the gulf. Lot of time left and many model runs

[forecasterjack]

Would anyone have ECMWF qpf runs from 00z available? That run looks alarming from a precipitation perspective.

ECMWF full resolution QPF for free: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/95 ... 0000z.html

[cajungal]

Horrible for Texas for still several more days. Really feel for them. But better news for us in central and SE Louisiana. Rain is remaining well to our west and models are trending away from bringing Harvey near us. So far haven't got any rain except for a few sprinkles and the sun is out.

[tolakram]

Latest GFS total precip at 192 hours

[tolakram]

The Euro (via Weatherbell) is similar.

[forecasterjack]

:uarrow: The Euro (via Weatherbell) is similar.

Here's a link to where you can get Euro QPF for free https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/95 ... 0000z.html

[forecasterjack]

HRRR giving signals that the heaviest rain may actually fall well NE of the center. Out by that band in Houston. Maybe areas right near Corpus Christi get spared a bit? Certainly better mesoscale moisture flux/convergence by Houston but the cores of TC's can be incredibly efficient rainmakers https://weather.us/model-charts/rapid-u ... 2000z.html

[Steve]

Latest rundown:

NAM 12z - spins over the same area w heaviest rains SE of Austin. Rains out near original landfall point at 84 hours.

GFS initially is similar to NAM but it eventually moves it South of San Antonio and rains out in the Big Bend.

NAVGEM 06z spins it around farther south and then gets offshore then landfalls around Galveston Bay as a mid grade tropical storm. 12z running now.

EURO 00z posts above. Similar to NAVGEM in getting offshore but landfalls back around the original point of entry. Updated run starts in :30

HWRF 12z just spins around Deep South Texas for the duration of its run slowly weakening.

As for rainfall, here's the GFS. 20+ concentrated WSW of Houston and east of San Antonio.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1&ypos=356

[stormreader]

Latest rundown:

NAM 12z - spins over the same area w heaviest rains SE of Austin. Rains out near original landfall point at 84 hours.

GFS initially is similar to NAM but it eventually moves it South of San Antonio and rains out in the Big Bend.

NAVGEM 06z spins it around farther south and then gets offshore then landfalls around Galveston Bay as a mid grade tropical storm. 12z running now.

EURO 00z posts above. Similar to NAVGEM in getting offshore but landfalls back around the original point of entry. Updated run starts in :30

HWRF 12z just spins around Deep South Texas for the duration of its run slowly weakening.

As for rainfall, here's the GFS. 20+ concentrated WSW of Austin and east of San Antonio.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1&ypos=356

Thanks Steve. Now all we need is the 12z Euro. Should be coming up shortly. Looking forward to those posts.

[Steve]

No problem. I corrected that one to read WSW oh Houston.

[stormreader]

Latest Euro anyone??

[WeatherEmperor]

Latest Euro anyone??

96hrs 12z Euro




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[mcheer23]

Latest Euro anyone??

987 mb storm making landfall near matagorda

[N2FSU]

+72hr

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF is running https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/90 ... 2100z.html

[forecasterjack]

Latest Euro anyone??

Check it out: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/90 ... 2100z.html use menus to the left of the image to look at different parameters/times etc.

[hd44]

HRRR going nuts with the heavy rain shield. This just gets bigger with time as multiple bands merge.