ATL: HARVEY - Models

[msp]

HRRR going nuts with the heavy rain shield. This just gets bigger with time as multiple bands merge.

It's been consistent with almost every run today in showing Houston getting pummeled

Also new euro takes it back offshore, strengthens, then passes up thru western Houston metro

[Steve]

Euro in pain mode through 120 hours. If it's right, gonna be tough for the mid Texas coast, SE Texas and Houston metro. No one will see a repeat of what they saw just north of Corpus Christ last night, but get ready. Euro is probably one of worst cases.

[wxman22]

I notice not only has the HRRR been consistent on very heavy rainfall accumulations through Sunday Morning in the Houston area but the NAM 3k, WRF ARW, and the RGEM also...

[hd44]

Euro in pain mode through 120 hours. If it's right, gonna be tough for the mid Texas coast, SE Texas and Houston metro. No one will see a repeat of what they saw just north of Corpus Christ last night, but get ready. Euro is probably one of worst cases.

Shifted more to looking at the meso models since it is over land to see the banding features. Hrrr/wrf arw slam Houston.

[Steve]

Euro in pain mode through 120 hours. If it's right, gonna be tough for the mid Texas coast, SE Texas and Houston metro. No one will see a repeat of what they saw just north of Corpus Christ last night, but get ready. Euro is probably one of worst cases.

Shifted more to looking at the meso models since it is over land to see the banding features. Hrrr/wrf arw slam Houston.

In some respects they have led the way. They've been way off too, but definitely have been useful with Harvey and in some cases partially gained some respect with me. On the other hand, the European is the European which right or wrong always gets respect from me 96H and in even if I disagree with it.

[shah83]

The mesoscale rainfall predictions are more concerning than at least the GFS rainfall map. This is just two day rainfall, and if there is something like what goes on with the Euro...

[tailgater]

Heading to Odessa Tx. Sunday morning from Baton Rouge to make a delivery, I shouldn't have any problems if I go I 49 up to I-20 right? I have to be back Tuesday morning,

[stormreader]

Thank you to those who posted the 12z Euro. Decent chance it may be back offshore. Important for Houston metro if track is west of Houston, say up the coast with second landfall near Sabine Pass. That is not as likely, I don't think, as a trek just west of Galveston and over Houston. It's all bad, but west of Houston might mean 10 inches or so less rain.

[stormreader]

Rather east of Houston somewhat less rain.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro run

[galveston-d]

Being selfish here in Galveston - hope it doesn't go back out into the GOM at all! This wee bit of rain flooded my kitchen and my neighbors say the main street - Broadway - is flooded out on both ends. I hope it goes north and dissipates as I have seen on GFS. GFS does show quite a bit of rain for us still but it would be much worse - I think - if it did a south and east track.

[forecasterjack]

Thank you to those who posted the 12z Euro. Decent chance it may be back offshore. Important for Houston metro if track is west of Houston, say up the coast with second landfall near Sabine Pass. That is not as likely, I don't think, as a trek just west of Galveston and over Houston. It's all bad, but west of Houston might mean 10 inches or so less rain.

Euro makes second landfall basically half way between Corpus and Galveston. You can check it out yourself: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/96 ... 0600z.html use the menus to the left of the image to select different parameters and times.

[forecasterjack]

My biggest concern with a SE track over GOM is the renewed potential for strong TS to weak Hurricane force winds over the same places that got blasted with the cat 4 stuff last night. ECWMF 12Z wind gusts: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/96 ... 1200z.html

[Steve]

My biggest concern with a SE track over GOM is the renewed potential for strong TS to weak Hurricane force winds over the same places that got blasted with the cat 4 stuff last night. ECWMF 12Z wind gusts: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/96 ... 1200z.html

Yeah. Debris is everywhere and 50-60mph gusts smash it into things. I had practically written a dissertation with links on the current models and closed the window on my phone. Bah. Summary is 18z NAMs 12/32km res bring the greatest rainfall training threat to between LaGrange and San Antonio. 3km is much closer to the coast and looks like it sets up Harris County to be under an onslaught of E/W training bands north of the circulation and straight out of the Gulf. That's a long 24-30 hour attack. HRRR 20z does a loop over its 18 hours and is heading SE to the Gulf earlier. HWRF 12z spins in loops moving west over time.

[forecasterjack]

My biggest concern with a SE track over GOM is the renewed potential for strong TS to weak Hurricane force winds over the same places that got blasted with the cat 4 stuff last night. ECWMF 12Z wind gusts: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/96 ... 1200z.html

Yeah. Debris is everywhere and 50-60mph gusts smash it into things. I had practically written a dissertation with links on the current models and closed the window on my phone. Bah. Summary is 18z NAMs 12/32km res bring the greatest rainfall training threat to between LaGrange and San Antonio. 3km is much closer to the coast and looks like it sets up Harris County to be under an onslaught of E/W training bands north of the circulation and straight out of the Gulf. That's a long 24-30 hour attack. HRRR 20z does a loop over its 18 hours and is heading SE to the Gulf earlier. HWRF 12z spins in loops moving west over time.

Here are a few links to help

Will do wind speed/direction for 10 AM Tuesday. You can select other parameters and times using the menus left of the images
ECMWF: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/95 ... 1500z.html
German: https://weather.us/model-charts/german/ ... 1500z.html
GFS: https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 1500z.html
CMC: https://weather.us/model-charts/can/953 ... 1500z.html
NAM 3km keeps it onshore at 1 AM Tuesday https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 0600z.html

enjoy!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Nam looking like transition to a hybrid system will be coming there.

[bamajammer4eva]

18z GFS op for 18z this coming Thursday gradual dissipation



Last 5 GEFS runs for 00z Thursday offshore instead which wouldn't be a good trend for E Tx/La

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tend to think the storm will not get back over water, and it move along the front.

[BRweather]

This is looking like something to monitor.

GFS ensembles seem to all be going fairly decently offshore.

And then half of them seem to go NNE while the other half go west.

[1900hurricane]

HRRR: the never-ending story of 18" of rain in 18 hours across portions of SETX.