Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands (Invest 93L is up)

[ColdMiser123]

Strong signal on the EPS for a significant system down the road from this disturbance. Many members out to sea, but a few threaten the east coast. Worth watching.

[sma10]

Strong signal on the EPS for a significant system down the road from this disturbance. Many members out to sea, but a few threaten the east coast. Worth watching.

Yep, and appears to be decent agreement thru 240 hours amongst the Big 2. That alone is already in fantasy-land; no point to even speculate past that about the "east coast trough"

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions may
be conducive for slow development by the middle of next week while
the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[blp]

Too early to know where this is going especially with how poor the models have performed this year. I would not put to much faith though on anything too strong like what the GFS is showing. The MDR is not the most favorable area this year. I think this will slip into the Caribbean with the low level flow. Needs to be watched.

[gatorcane]

Yeah I agree blp. We just don't know where this may end up of it develops. Too early for sure and I do think the GFS is too bullish out of the gates as usual. The wave is certainly coming off at a prime time with the climatological peak of the season approaching.

[WeatherHoon]

Harvey definitely taught me to keep my mouth shut when looking at models past 5 days.

[smithtim]

You can see the wave over Western Africa on this loop. Looks vigorous and already has spin:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

WOW! Explains why nhc making note about it with probabilities before even gets into Atlantic, which I found interesting ( or perhaps should say concerning).

IMHO most likely see devlopment unless it moves into strong shear enviorment early... way to early to know how much, track etc but definitely gonna be watching this one closely!!!

[CyclonicFury]

00z GFS, UKMET and CMC all on board with development of this system. Will be interesting to see the 00z ECMWF. Think we have a chance to get a CV long tracker out of this one as SAL has eased up a bit from earlier this month.

[blp]

00z GFS is out to lunch on the intensity. Reason I know is because the CMC has 1003mb low at 240hr versus GFS which has 940mb. Never is the CMC weaker than anybody. Euro also is weak at 1007mb. I rest my case.

This one might get close and scrap the islands.

[sma10]

00z GFS is out to lunch on the intensity. Reason I know is because the CMC has 1003mb low at 240hr versus GFS which has 940mb. Never is the CMC weaker than anybody. Euro also is weak at 1007mb. I rest my case.

This one might get close and scrap the islands.

And should this indeed struggle in the eastern/central atlantic, we'll get the usual bellyaching about how the air is too dry, King Tutt, what a disappointment, etc.. etc... all the while setting the stage for potential mischief further west.

[AubreyStorm]

2am

[AubreyStorm]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean tonight or early Monday. Environmental
conditions may be conducive for slow development by the middle of
next week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[HurricaneEric]

00z Euro hours 144-192. At 987mb.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

[AutoPenalti]

00z Euro hours 144-192. At 987mb.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Uh, is that ridge moving in tandem with future 93L?

[SFLcane]

Huge trof waiting to kick out

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

00z 27 August GFS makes Jose/Irma/Katia very strong hurricane reminiscent of Harvey (cat. 4) and makes him/she/she hit Nova Scotia as strong Cat. 2 or minimal Cat. 3 hurricane. Remember Hurricane Juan? This could be a problem. GFS isn't very reliable model right now, but if it did it could make me *i won't say that*.

[RL3AO]

If we get a fish storm (barring Bermuda/Nova Scotia impact) like the GFS is showing, it would probably be the storm that helps the Atlantic end up above average for ACE this season.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean tonight or early Monday. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for slow development by the middle
of next week while the wave moves westward about 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
The next African easterly wave to push across the Main Development Region now is up to a 70% chance for development during 1st week of Sep.



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/901788555705507840

[ColdMiser123]

Strong signal once again from the 6z GFS Ensembles. The ensemble distribution can also be seen well, with paths ranging from Florida to Bermuda.