ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

error in the NHC discussion. The 48 hour forecast is actually back over the water. Pasch listed the point as inland

[storm_in_a_teacup]

error in the NHC discussion. The 48 hour forecast is actually back over the water. Pasch listed the point as inland

So what does that mean? It could restrengthen? Pull in more moisture?

[Alyono]

error in the NHC discussion. The 48 hour forecast is actually back over the water. Pasch listed the point as inland

So what does that mean? It could restrengthen? Pull in more moisture?

both

[tailgater]

Prayers with our friends in Texas.
Why do this events seem to happen at night so often. Rhetorical.
Try not to Panic and check on your neighbors. Daylight is coming soon, that should help a little.

[BRweather]

Okay is it an illusion on radar or is Harvey sinking south that quickly??

[GCANE]

I really hate to say this, but on a quick glance, I don't see any end in sight for the foreseeable future.

That 5000 CAPE pocket in the GOM is still there.
The high winds from Harvey are picking up the moisture from the water (WISHE - Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange) and throwing it into the boundary layer.

The latest and closest Sounding I could find is showing a nearly saturated air column.
Any forced lift will dump massive amounts of rain.

Also, TPW looks like it is deepening in the GOM and getting ready to dump even more rain.
Appears to still have the EPAC connect between Chiapas and Oaxaca.

Prayers and stay safe everyone.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[BRweather]

07z HRRR seems to confirm our fears

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/901628153784918018

[BRweather]

Seriously...I wonder how many quick tornadoes have occurred? Each one has to be exacerbating the problem tremendously.

[GCANE]

That train is also picking up very high ThetaE (367) air over the same hot pool of water.

[aperson]

From an evac perspective, what happens here next? I don't understand how any part of Houston can endure this for 3 or more days. The 3rd band that set up on radar basically has all of houston covered by nonstop rain now.

[BRweather]

One of the most intense bands yet is setting up offshore and it stretches all the way back to Brownsville. This one is looking nasty on water-vapor and what the radar is picking up.

[LearnedHat]

I really hate to say this, but on a quick glance, I don't see any end in sight for the foreseeable future.

That 5000 CAPE pocket in the GOM is still there.
The high winds from Harvey are picking up the moisture from the water (WISHE - Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange) and throwing it into the boundary layer.

The latest and closest Sounding I could find is showing a nearly saturated air column.
Any forced lift will dump massive amounts of rain.

Also, TPW looks like it is deepening in the GOM and getting ready to dump even more rain.
Appears to still have the EPAC connect between Chiapas and Oaxaca.

Prayers and stay safe everyone.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

What does the flow across Mexico from eastern pacific mean/provide?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/901740516026572801




 https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/901739118585110528




 https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/901725713128194049

[BRweather]

The center looks to be moving almost SSE now on radar. And it definitely does not look to be moving 1 mph any longer. It is tough to pin the exact center, but seems to be moving faster.

[GCANE]

I really hate to say this, but on a quick glance, I don't see any end in sight for the foreseeable future.

That 5000 CAPE pocket in the GOM is still there.
The high winds from Harvey are picking up the moisture from the water (WISHE - Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange) and throwing it into the boundary layer.

The latest and closest Sounding I could find is showing a nearly saturated air column.
Any forced lift will dump massive amounts of rain.

Also, TPW looks like it is deepening in the GOM and getting ready to dump even more rain.
Appears to still have the EPAC connect between Chiapas and Oaxaca.

Prayers and stay safe everyone.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

What does the flow across Mexico from eastern pacific mean/provide?

More moist air that feeds into Harvey that would lead to rain.
However as Harvey weakens, pressure goes up, I think that feed will cut off soon.

[tailgater]

I really hate to say this, but on a quick glance, I don't see any end in sight for the foreseeable future.

That 5000 CAPE pocket in the GOM is still there.
The high winds from Harvey are picking up the moisture from the water (WISHE - Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange) and throwing it into the boundary layer.

The latest and closest Sounding I could find is showing a nearly saturated air column.
Any forced lift will dump massive amounts of rain.

Also, TPW looks like it is deepening in the GOM and getting ready to dump even more rain.
Appears to still have the EPAC connect between Chiapas and Oaxaca.

Prayers and stay safe everyone.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

http://i.imgur.com/FGBF7bF.gif

http://i.imgur.com/pjD48yD.gif

What does the flow across Mexico from eastern pacific mean/provide?

It means that Harvey has a long fetch of deep tropical moisture to pull from.

[GCANE]

Seriously...I wonder how many quick tornadoes have occurred? Each one has to be exacerbating the problem tremendously.

Looks like the tornado threat may be done for a while.
It may come back this afternoon, especially if there is a break in the cloud cover over land and there is some prolonged heating of the ground.

[GCANE]

Nasty looking MCS

[GCANE]

Feeder band developed east of Brownsville about an hour ago and sweeping across the GOM.
Looks like its picking up steam.
May come on shore in about 1.5 hours.
Watching this one closely.