ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BRweather]

If the GFS wins the model war, it would be a huge break for east Texas. Not near the rainfall totals in the last couple of runs.

It could epically fail too.

[BRweather]

Feeder band developed east of Brownsville about an hour ago and sweeping across the GOM.
Looks like its picking up steam.
May come on shore in about 1.5 hours.
Watching this one closely.

This one has me the most worried.

[beachbum123]

Northeast Waller county some areas between 16 and 17 inches of rain so far per hcfws.

Still raining!!

Waiting for the sun to rise!

[GCANE]

Feeder band in the GOM getting cold cloud tops.
Intensifying quickly.
Going over the hot spot now.

[Texas Snowman]

At 4:58 a.m. on 8/27/17...

"@HerzogWeather -- PLEASE STAY HOME!

@NWSHouston now reports over 1000 high water rescues and confirms 5 fatalities."

[Texas Snowman]

At 4:57 a.m. on 8/27/17...

"@HerzogWeather -- #BREAKING: @NWSHouston now calls this "Epic catastrophic flooding" around the Houston and Galveston areas.

I have never seen this language."

[Texas Snowman]

At 5:53 a.m. on 8/27/17...

"@HerzogWeather -- #BREAKING: New message from emergency manager is DO NOT GET INTO YOUR ATTIC - GET ON THE ROOF! If calling 911, stay on line until answered."

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Police chief saying don't go into attic without ax. Houston NWS says better to go onto roof.

 https://twitter.com/ArtAcevedo/status/901723767537324032




 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/901759465086701569

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/marcusbailey/status/901760440350408704

[Chris_in_Tampa]

River levels near or above flood stage in Texas:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/region.p ... _type=near

River levels and rainfall for Houston area:
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

Clear Creek (at) I-45 has received 2 feet of rain in 24 hours from Harvey. Data not verified.


From: https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall

Some river levels are already at record levels and climbing.

Some river levels have already surpassed the high water marks of Allison in 2001.

Some river levels are already over 10 feet above the top of their bank.
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall
Click "Stream Elevation" tab.

Some river levels are already way past 100-year flood events and nearing 500-year flood events.
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... v=rainfall
Same one with 24+ inches of rain in 24 hours. As of posting, stream elevation is 15.06 ft. 0.14 inches away from 500-year flood event.

For that gauge:

Flood Frequency: Elevation
10% (10-year): 9.50'
2% (50-year): 11.60'
1% (100-year): 12.40'
.2% (500-year): 15.20'

Some historical storms:

Claudette 1979: 16.90'
Allison 2001: 10.70'
Ike 2008: 11.00'

Could be two 500-year events within a little over 38 years.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/HerzogWeather/status/901760368938246144




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/901763306138075136

[xironman]

Radar may not be the best method given the state of the storm, but it looks like a slow southeast drift from San Antonio

[GCANE]

No way.
That feeder band is starting to bow out.
Maybe setting up for a mild Derecho.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/901765351960190976

[Langinbang187]

Looks like calls of "Bullet dodged" were as ridiculous as I suspected they were. Hoping everybody manages to stay safe, but a very scary situation.

[NDG]

The convergence over SE TX has been incredible and to think it could stick around until at least Wednesday if the Euro is correct.

12 hr radar loop.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/901771628325076992




 https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/901760368988577792

[tolakram]

This is horrible. It was difficult to believe when the models forecast some of the worst flooding in history.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/901706878077554688




Eric Blake ✔ @EricBlake12
It is hard to overstate how dire a situation #Harvey is. All signs point to the worst flood on record for the #Houston metro area.
3:24 AM - Aug 27, 2017

[BRweather]

These people desperately need the GFS to verify or let it push far enough east. Something.

[stormlover2013]

Radar looks like it's headed back into gulf!!!