ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hriverajr]

Moving towards the water a little quicker per satellite

Not good

Don't see it... It's been hanging out near Victoria for hours..

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z euro is sooo not good..

[Aric Dunn]

Moving towards the water a little quicker per satellite

Not good

Don't see it... It's been hanging out near Victoria for hours..

Radar it looks like it not moving much. Long loop showing movement nearly straight to coast. Still not all that fast. But more than it was..

Either way. 12z euro not good

[newtotex]

The 12z euro is sooo not good..

What's it looking like?

[collegebroke]

I've been on this site since it started and just love how kind everyone is on this site. I also have been living in Sugarland/Richmond SW Houston area for 40 years. I've been through depressions, storms, Allison, Ike, and just general storms. At my house we have received 22" of rain in 35 hours and expecting more. The current forecast brings the storm directly over our house tomorrow night or Tuesday morning. Never, Never, have evacuations taken place like this. If you don't live here, you can't really understand. Just on a Friday or Sunday night, the normal traffic pattern is so heavy that it takes an amazing amount of time to get home. During the one evacuation that was called during Rita (I think), We spent an hour on the main road to leave and only got 1/2 mile. We chose to stay this time because we've had 22" of rain before and that was pretty much the forecast at first. Secondly, the storms usually move out pretty quick or at least give us a break for water to drain. Not this one. The thing is that the only one who would have known what this storm would do is its Creator. Considering the horrible experience that we had with trying to evacuation 6+ million (people died on the highway while stranded, sick and out of gas), and the bad experiences in the last year plus Allison, considering that the governor got disaster declarations two days before it hit, considering that all the county judges (including Ed Emmet) and city mayors have worked together to pull resources together, things could have been much, much worse. I'm grateful for the planning and good sense that is here now. I does not help to see people who really don't know talk badly about the people that I think have done an excellent job. Seems to me that the energy that is being used to lay blame would better be used to lay bricks on the road to recovery. Yes we have a leak in the roof, yes we are stranded in our neighborhood, yes, we are expecting it to get a little worse, but we have power, food, water, and a generator. I woke up on the right side of the daylight. I can't ask for more. Thanks for letting me vent.

[northjaxpro]

I have to ask has anyone heard from our esteemed met and moderator Wxman57? I believe if my memory through the years on this site of mentions of 57 living in the Houston area and I was wondering if 57 has informed us is doing OK? I hope all is OK under these circumstances.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z euro is sooo not good..

What's it looking like?

Quute a bit farther offshore and longer. Though i dont have the hi res. Not sure how strong it gets

[ronyan]

I have to ask has anyone heard from our esteemed met and moderator Wxman57? I believe if my memory through the years on this site of mentions of 57 living in the Houston area and I was wondering if 57 has informed us is doing OK? I hope all is OK under these circumstances.

He posted 15 minutes ago on KHOU board. Seems to be alright.

[ConvergenceZone]

Moving towards the water a little quicker per satellite

Not good

Don't see it... It's been hanging out near Victoria for hours..

I am kind of hoping it would move to the water faster, so that it can leave faster than anticipated. But not sure that will happen.Of course that would only be good if it means it would leave the water faster and not slow down

[LearnedHat]

Does anybody have a map of current near-shore water temps off the Texas shore? Is there a map from a week ago that we can compare to?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Not good

Don't see it... It's been hanging out near Victoria for hours..

I am kind of hoping it would move to the water faster, so that it can leave faster than anticipated. But not sure that will happen.Of course that would only be good if it means it would leave the water faster and not slow down

Actually the faster it gets in the water the more time it has to redevelop. You want this thing to continue dying out over land, because once it touches water the rain bands will only get worse. Sad situation currently unfolding in front of all of us.

[curtadams]

One thing I've been thinking about is that the rivers and bayous are likely to continue rising for some time, even if the rain stops (which it doesn't seem to be). I normally see quite a lot of projected flood crests but I haven't seen any yet. Are there any resources with predictions, even crude ones, for how high the water is going to get? That would be very useful for people trying to figure out what to do now. Or is this so far out of experience that it can't be done?

[jasons2k]

I have to ask has anyone heard from our esteemed met and moderator Wxman57? I believe if my memory through the years on this site of mentions of 57 living in the Houston area and I was wondering if 57 has informed us is doing OK? I hope all is OK under these circumstances.

Yes, he is fine - posted on the KHOU board about 20min ago.

Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:15 pm

Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too bad here tonight.

My forecast takes the center of Harvey across Houston on Wednesday (as a TD), by the way...

[tarheelprogrammer]

One thing I've been thinking about is that the rivers and bayous are likely to continue rising for some time, even if the rain stops (which it doesn't seem to be). I normally see quite a lot of projected flood crests but I haven't seen any yet. Are there any resources with predictions, even crude ones, for how high the water is going to get? That would be very useful for people trying to figure out what to do now. Or is this so far out of experience that it can't be done?

I did see on TWC that Buffalo Bayou is supposed to reach 75 feet????????? I think which is 15 feet above the record. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks for posting an update on wxman57. Great to know he is OK.

[newtotex]

One thing I've been thinking about is that the rivers and bayous are likely to continue rising for some time, even if the rain stops (which it doesn't seem to be). I normally see quite a lot of projected flood crests but I haven't seen any yet. Are there any resources with predictions, even crude ones, for how high the water is going to get? That would be very useful for people trying to figure out what to do now. Or is this so far out of experience that it can't be done?

Another thing that is really going to be awful is that even if Harvey comes ashore again near Houston as a moderate/strong tropical storm, the situation with already saturated ground and downed trees will only exacerbate the situation. If you start having trees and other debris clogging up areas, that's going to cause some massive back flow. Not to mention the surge going up the already flooded bayous

[HouTXmetro]

Harris County (Houston) emergency director Ed Emmett (@edemmett on Twitter) just said on CNN that if this was a hurricane, they would have evacuated people. But it's just a "RAIN EVENT" so they did not. Are you kidding me? For the official in charge of emergency management in natural disasters to dissociate the flooding in Houston from Hurricane/Tropical Storm Harvey is so disingenuous and dangerous.

This was PREDICTED IN ADVANCE. Inadequate response from the mayor and the county commissioner!

[BRweather]

The 12z euro is sooo not good..

What's it looking like?

Quute a bit farther offshore and longer. Though i dont have the hi res. Not sure how strong it gets

992 mb

[Steve]

As I type, we are under a rain band with torrential downpours in it. Just coming down. I fear tonight might be worse than this. Most school districts are closed for the week. I assume UH, Rice, TSU, HCC and Lone Star will follow suit. I hope the situation will improve, but unfortunately we are in the 6th inning of a 9 inning game. We are ok so far in our subdivision in Atascocita.

http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

Looks like you'll be getting a break fairly soon though there is another band moving up from the south. Luckily that one appears to be rotating rather than training.

[PTPatrick]

Looking at euro 3 hour rainfalls overnight and into tomorrow morning will be very bad again for Houston. It shos was a brief lull tomorrow evening into night, possibly from regeneration over the gulf causing storms to reconsolodate toward the center further south? But then the show starts again Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday...projects 28 inches between now and Wednesday night.

Take any pinpoint precip forecasts with a grain of salt...they show potential and it will vary greatly, but in general another couple feet for the Houston metro seems very reasonable.