ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

40 frame saved radar

[tolakram]

SLIDER loop
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=944.5&y=1017&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[meriland29]

where is the center of circulation atm? The current radar throws me off cause of the rain bands

[tolakram]

This 30 frame loop might give a better indication of motion and position.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=29&lon=-96&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92

[ATCcane]

Looks like the center is just east of Victoria heading SE.

[meriland29]

Harvey is anticipated to be offshore for almost a entire day. Apparently there is some anticipation of some mild strengthening, however,well, I don't know, a day is a pretty long time.

[tolakram]

Dot where I guess it is.



NHC position update is:

4:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 27
Location: 29.0°N 97.0°W
Moving: SE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[1900hurricane]

It's getting a little lost since most of the focus has been in the Houston area (understandably so), but the areas along the Colorado River downstream of Austin and upstream of I-10 have been hit about just as hard. Lots of totals > 20" in there too. The flood scale is ridiculous; it's basically going to end up with Allison '01/Amelia '78 like maximum rainfall totals with a Beulah '67 type overall areal extent. Based on surrounding obs (don't have a rain gauge set up at my new place yet), it looks like I"m closing in on 10" in Bryan near the border with College Station.

[artist]

NHC-


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Harvey is
drifting toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow
southeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is forecast to move off
the middle Texas coast on Monday and meander just offshore through
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Some slight restrengthening is possible after the center moves
off the coast on Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

[tolakram]

NHC position via google maps

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Harvey is anticipated to be offshore for almost a entire day. Apparently there is some anticipation of some mild strengthening, however,well, I don't know, a day is a pretty long time.

So it's returning to the sea? My God I swear it's like it knows what it's doing. Gives me the chills.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking out of multiple radar sites. Its definitely slowly moving se now. One thing thats concerning is looks like some convection at least on radar is returning to the center. Figured it woulf if enough convergence still exisited as it approached the waters.. not good.

[ATCcane]

Looking out of multiple radar sites. Its definitely slowly moving se now. One thing thats concerning is looks like some convection at least on radar is returning to the center. Figured it woulf if enough convergence still exisited as it approached the waters.. not good.

Yes, you can see some returns starting to show near the center. Not a lot currently but enough to pick up the spin crossing Hwy 59 just east of Victoria.

[sponger]

Hell on earth! Time to run and cut your losses if you can. Far to many stayed in known low lying areas and the after evac is going to be hell and last well into next week. Stay safe LA and TX!

[Aric Dunn]

NHC position via google maps

Yeah pretty clearon the move from the last advisory position and some convection returning..

[meriland29]

Yes, it is going to go offshore for quite some time....probably more like 1.5 days completely offshore. If that is the case (and this is a update from their earlier anticipation of it being near offshore but not quite there) I wouldn't be surprised if it regains more than 5mph in that timeframe..

[HURAKAN]

I'm ok. Been at work since yesterday and will do so until it's safe to go back to my apartment

[meriland29]

Where is it pulling this current convection from?

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/HoustonOEM/status/901912115954548736




Houston OEM‏Verified account @HoustonOEM

City of Houston has established Evacuation Rally Points for residents who need transportation to the shelter @GRBCC. http://www.houstonemergency.org/alertho ... 8-27-2017/ …

[artist]

Link: https://youtu.be/_tjPPZo_iOY