ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6281 Postby artist » Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:39 pm

SoonerMaximus wrote:I'm trying to understand the timeline going forward with respect to the timeline of expected additional rainfall for Houston area and how that actually corresponds with change in flood levels. News and Wx channel all seem to focus on how much additional rainfall is expected (double what has come), but they aren't diving into how that actually translates into additional flooding. Without explaining it, the implication is to expect double the levels that currently exist, and this flooding is because of such a large amount over such a short time. The Harris County Flood Warning site is down for me at least, so I can't see what the flood levels have actually done, if they've receded any or held steady. Some areas on the news were showing receding water, so it has fallen back some at least in some places, but with the additional rainfall coming down over the course of the next few days instead of such a short time period, one would expect a somewhat less severe ratio of rainfall to flood level.

Am I thinking this through correctly? Essentially, we all know this is unprecedented for the area, and with the further complication of releasing the reservoirs, can get extremely difficult to predict, but I wonder what the actual increase is going to be to the flood levels over the next few days. The fact I'm not hearing it anywhere tells me nobody has a good prediction.

https://www.click2houston.com/live/watc ... prc-2-news
Conference right now
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6282 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:48 pm

Important point Harris Ema guy just made... This is the first time Barker and Addicks have had to have releases When Buffalo was still in flood stage...in other words, they don't really know what this will look like downstream. He seems to be hedging on how much additional homes will be flooding. It all depends on rain overnight. Neighborhoods west of the reservoirs will also start flooding, but that is regardless of the controlled releases.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6283 Postby latitude_20 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:52 pm

artist wrote:
SoonerMaximus wrote:I'm trying to understand the timeline going forward with respect to the timeline of expected additional rainfall for Houston area and how that actually corresponds with change in flood levels. News and Wx channel all seem to focus on how much additional rainfall is expected (double what has come), but they aren't diving into how that actually translates into additional flooding. Without explaining it, the implication is to expect double the levels that currently exist, and this flooding is because of such a large amount over such a short time. The Harris County Flood Warning site is down for me at least, so I can't see what the flood levels have actually done, if they've receded any or held steady. Some areas on the news were showing receding water, so it has fallen back some at least in some places, but with the additional rainfall coming down over the course of the next few days instead of such a short time period, one would expect a somewhat less severe ratio of rainfall to flood level.

Am I thinking this through correctly? Essentially, we all know this is unprecedented for the area, and with the further complication of releasing the reservoirs, can get extremely difficult to predict, but I wonder what the actual increase is going to be to the flood levels over the next few days. The fact I'm not hearing it anywhere tells me nobody has a good prediction.

https://www.click2houston.com/live/watc ... prc-2-news
Conference right now


Nobody really knows the answer to that question. All that matters is that additional flooding will occur. I doubt there is time for those in danger of flooding to sit around and wonder. Flooding is already catastrophic, more rain to come, nobody knows exactly how much, and now we add in the dam releases. It's unfortunately too late. All we can know is that additional rainfall along with dam releases are just going to make things worse. It really is that simple.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6284 Postby nutkin517 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:58 pm

I am in Beaumont and it was raining pretty hard for about 30 minutes or so. It has slowed a little. My back yard was under water this morning and had water in the front up to my porch. My street is raised up quite a bit and even it was flooded.

I was expected to work this morning, but I didn't go. There is no way I could've gotten there safely. Besides the logistics of evacuating, I am sure a lot of people didn't leave for fear of losing their jobs.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6285 Postby artist » Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:59 pm

An awful situation getting worse, but trying to keep it from getting even worse. What a conundrum!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6286 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:00 pm

nutkin517 wrote:I am in Beaumont and it was raining pretty hard for about 30 minutes or so. It has slowed a little. My back yard was under water this morning and had water in the front up to my porch. My street is raised up quite a bit and even it was flooded.

I was expected to work this morning, but I didn't go. There is no way I could've gotten there safely. Besides the logistics of evacuating, I am sure a lot of people didn't leave for fear of losing their jobs.

Glad to hear you are safe, and welcome to S2K. Listen, if your employer expects you to risk your life to go to work, you shouldn't unless you are some sort of first responder or something. Stay where you are if it is safe.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6287 Postby Portaransas » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:00 pm

Latest radar, COC seems to jog ENE almost. I'm wondering if it won't make it offshore, and will lose energy faster than thought. Best case scenario, hoping that's what happening. It looks pretty clear that a substantial shift is occurring.

I'm looking here btw: http://kxan.com/weather/radar/
Last edited by Portaransas on Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6288 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:01 pm

I hope twc and the 24 hr news channels get those maps and post them on newscasts asap. Those people need to know what is going on around those reservoirs.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6289 Postby smooth2904 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:02 pm

Is it just me or does it look like this thing is moving due east now?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6290 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:02 pm

Portaransas wrote:Latest radar, COC seems to jog ENE almost. I'm wondering if it won't make it offshore, and will lose energy faster than thought. Best case scenario, hoping that's what happening.


Both GFS and Euro had the LLC jumping around before making it offshore. I have no real clue if it will make it or not, but so far it seems to be following the expected path.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6291 Postby artist » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:05 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:I hope twc and the 24 hr news channels get those maps and post them on newscasts asap. Those people need to know what is going on around those reservoirs.

I agree. Horrible time for their website to be down.
Kprc is now showing where some more areas will not have access for at least 5 days due to cresting of the Brazos.
Last edited by artist on Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6292 Postby nutkin517 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:06 pm

I plan on staying put. Have plenty of food/water. I am off tomorrow and school was canceled. Local station said to expect 14.5" tonight.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6293 Postby artist » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:07 pm

nutkin517 wrote:I plan on staying put. Have plenty of food/water. I am off tomorrow and school was canceled. Local station said to expect 14.5" tonight.

Stay safe. Thoughts and prayers are with you and all effected.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6294 Postby JaxGator » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:09 pm

One of the many heroic police officers that have been undertaking many water rescues alongside firefighters, Air National Guard and the Coast Guard (story seems credible). Probably will have many more tonight...
https://www.facebook.com/texassheriffsd ... 19/?type=3
Last edited by JaxGator on Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6295 Postby artist » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:10 pm

Maps have been posted to Kprc home page now.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6296 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:10 pm

Evening,

I have not been on this forum for a few days. Has anyone heard from Rock, he was getting pounded when the storm moved in.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6297 Postby artist » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:11 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening,

I have not been on this forum for a few days. Has anyone heard from Rock, he was getting pounded when the storm moved in.

I believe someone earlier said he was ok, maybe a couple of pages back.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6298 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:11 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6299 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:13 pm

Thanks Artist.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6300 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:14 pm

Portaransas wrote:Latest radar, COC seems to jog ENE almost. I'm wondering if it won't make it offshore, and will lose energy faster than thought. Best case scenario, hoping that's what happening. It looks pretty clear that a substantial shift is occurring.

I'm looking here btw: http://kxan.com/weather/radar/


no .. that is shallow convection on the NE side thats moving and rebuilding as it wraps around. a composite image from multiple sites has the center still moving ese to SE just about over point comfort. nearly offshore.
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