ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

OK what is the likely hood of this becoming a hurricane again before coming in land again? Where at do you guys see it making it's 4th or 5th landfall (I know officially they have it at 3, but if it goes back off shore over a bay and then hits a barrier island that would be the 4th)? I'm mainly asking the Pro-Mets

[tatlopuyo]

Situation in texas kind of reminds me about what happened to northern luzon here in the philippines during typhoon parma back in 2009.

[SunnyThoughts]

Bay City just announced a mandatory evacuation of the entire city by 1 pm tomorrow. Texas state operations center projects severe flooding of every structure in Bay City with up to 10 ft downtown.

[LarryWx]

Through 4PM today, the official Houston station had received an astounding 28.41" of rainfall month to date with much more still to come! The 28.41" was already enough to obliterate the previous record for any month on record (back to 1889), which had been the 19.21" of June, 2001!!

Edited to say "month to date"

[southerngale]

Maybe a tad off topic, but Harvey related...
I can't even go on my patio during all this without a jacket and it's late August!

[Aric Dunn]

and now the center is moving south.. .. if this keeps up even an hour it will be be offshore ..

right over port lavaca..

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe a tad off topic, but Harvey related...
I can't even go on my patio during all this without a jacket and it's late August!

yeah that freezing 75 degrees lol

[BZSTORM]

If some has asked this already - please link me to the post. Question what is the longest surviving Tropical Storm overland, I'm not talking longest surviving storm as these have been fish I know, just want to know about overland. Reason asking this Hurricane Mitch 1998 dumped an unbelievable amount of rain on Belize and Honduras for days before finally making landfall and quickly weakened from Cat 5 hurricane to Tropical storm but also quickly weakened to Depression still dumping rain over vast area. I don't recall any other cyclone in the Atlantic surviving as long as Harvey has on land after making landfall as a major hurricane.
Texas is in for alot more rain and in Belize with Mitch where we were so very very lucky not to have the hurricane make landfall we had standing flood water at least 6-8" deep even on the coast for nearly 2 weeks after the storm had made landfall in Honduras, so I understand full well the problems TX is going to have not for weeks but months with all this rainwater. My prayers are with everyone there.

[southerngale]

Maybe a tad off topic, but Harvey related...
I can't even go on my patio during all this without a jacket and it's late August!

yeah that freezing 75 degrees lol

Don't judge.
The wind and rain... I'm cold

[megsy]

I feel so bad asking this because of what's going on east of us, but we are in a very confusing situation and could use some guidance as it seems OEM is a bit overwhelmed at the moment. We are in Katy, inside the Barker Reservoir flood map. Buffalo bayou behind us topped over today and our streets are flooded, houses are starting to flood in the neighborhood.

OEM says we are under voluntary evacuation and should consider leaving in the morning. But they aren't giving us guidance on where to go. I'm not even sure we could get a car out of our neighborhood... but if we could - the models are confusing and I can't tell if the situation we are in is going to get worse or better and whether or not to try and get out.

Does anyone have any thoughts? I know there are worse situations, and I'm incredibly grateful we don't have water intrusion yet (but also feel guilty for feeling that way, bah this sucks). Anyway, WWYD?

[southerngale]

And the power just went out... lovely

[stephen23]

and now the center is moving south.. .. if this keeps up even an hour it will be be offshore ..

right over port lavaca..

Appears if it continues to head south like it is now that it will splash west of the forecast point. Wondering how much that will affect track? If the storm comes back in west of Houston that could be even worst then what is going on now

[Wx_Warrior]

And the power just went out... lovely

Got a heavy band about to coming rolling thru Triangle Area....could get dicey for a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

and now the center is moving south.. .. if this keeps up even an hour it will be be offshore ..

right over port lavaca..

Appears if it continues to head south like it is now that it will splash west of the forecast point. Wondering how much that will affect track? If the storm comes back in west of Houston that could be even worst then what is going on now

You mean a "waterfall" lol

[stephen23]

Last few radar frames appears to show precipitation starting to pick back up close to the COC as it gets closer to water

[Aric Dunn]

Last few radar frames appears to show precipitation starting to pick back up close to the COC as it gets closer to water

yep been watching it.. its moving faster now to the south..

[stephen23]

Last few radar frames appears to show precipitation starting to pick back up close to the COC as it gets closer to water

yep been watching it.. its moving faster now to the south..

Almost appears to be moving south/southwest. NHC forecast does not show that. They showed south east

[Aric Dunn]

Last few radar frames appears to show precipitation starting to pick back up close to the COC as it gets closer to water

yep been watching it.. its moving faster now to the south..

Almost appears to be moving south/southwest. NHC forecast does not show that. They showed south east

dont see any ssw motiong really. but straight south is pretty clear.. should be back over water shortly.. more returns showing up on radar.. satellite looks like a subtropical/hybrid .. temp profile is troprical though..

will be another long few days..

though shear has increased quite a bit today.. however its hard to tell the differnce between what the system is producing and outside shear.. time will tell

[Aric Dunn]

its now over the intercoastal just NE of port o'conner

[lilybeth]

Thinking about everyone effected by Harvey