ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2017082718, , BEST, 0, 119N, 184W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS023, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
AL, 93, 2017082800, , BEST, 0, 120N, 190W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS023, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,
AL, 93, 2017082806, , BEST, 0, 120N, 195W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, al712017 to al932017,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119044

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located just
offshore of the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized
since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in a few days
over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move westward at
15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several
days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[SFLcane]

Very bullish all the way around here just about all models onboard. To early to know if a threat.

[eastcoastFL]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located just
offshore of the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized
since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in a few days
over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move westward at
15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several
days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

http://i.imgur.com/9gFatSX.png

Have there been any model runs yet?

[KWT]

Models are indeed very bullish on this one developing.

Very early days yet to forecast this one, most models do recurve it BUT its too early to discount any situation.

[gatorcane]

Floater loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[RL3AO]

Has a good chance to be the 2nd major and produce enough ACE to shut down talk of a below average season.

[cycloneye]

12Z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2017082812, , BEST, 0, 115N, 205W, 25, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

These CV longtrackers are the most I like (I am sure many of you too) to track especially if they dont threat any landmasses.Let's see if this one is only an open sea all the time or down the road a landmass is going to be threatened.For sure it will be fun to track as it will rack up ACE bigtime.

[Michele B]

Oh, boy.

Here we go!

[blp]

Interesting to see the models have this lifting NNW and gaining latitude as it organizes and consolidates. Right now it looks to be heading west per last forecast update. I think this could have some implications downstream because if it stays at a lower latitude it might make it harder to lift out and also could be a problem for the island chain. Let' see how this evolves.

[otowntiger]

its early, I know, but this looks like one to watch. It does look like it will start bending north towards the end, maybe fish or upper east coast threat? While I know its early it was about this distance out last year the models were calling for the ultimate strength and path of Matthew - as I recall we were watching closely about 10 days out and generally the early models had it correct.

[CycloneCaptain]

Just hope its not a repeat of Gert

[NDG]

ACE generator will kick in with this system, dust will be nonexistent this time around as it gets into the middle of the Atlantic.

[galaxy401]

So we potentially have a long tracker here. We haven't had one in quite awhile. Let's see what this does and hopefully stays away from the Gulf.

[ForeverFlorida90s]

Is it weird that I like hurricanes so much that I hope and look forward to Them coming my way they are just so beautiful and interesting

[jlauderdal]

Is it weird that I like hurricanes so much that I hope and look forward to Them coming my way they are just so beautiful and interesting

Fair enough as long as your being honest

[RL3AO]

Is it weird that I like hurricanes so much that I hope and look forward to Them coming my way they are just so beautiful and interesting

I personally don't care if you want Florida to be hit by a strong hurricane. I know you have no control over that occurring. However, posts like that will lead to heated responses to you which will take the thread off topic. Therefore, we don't allow posts that wish for major hurricanes to hit land.

[ForeverFlorida90s]

Is it weird that I like hurricanes so much that I hope and look forward to Them coming my way they are just so beautiful and interesting

Fair enough as long as your being honest

I remember the 04-05 seasons it's been a long time for us interesting to see what 93l does

[ForeverFlorida90s]

Is it weird that I like hurricanes so much that I hope and look forward to Them coming my way they are just so beautiful and interesting

I personally don't care if you want Florida to be hit by a strong hurricane. I know you have no control over that occurring. However, posts like that will lead to heated responses to you which will take the thread off topic. Therefore, we don't allow posts that wish for major hurricanes to hit land.

I understand so I'll just watch and wait patiently since that's all I can do