ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

convectipon starting to fill in all around the center.. heavy rains return to houston area.. not looking good. if the center deepens then the rain increases..

[mitchell]

HOUSTON (AP) — Officials released more water from Houston-area reservoirs overwhelmed by Harvey early Monday in a move aimed at protecting the city's downtown from devastating floods but that could still endanger thousands of homes, even as the nation's fourth-largest city braced for more rain.

The Army Corps of Engineers started the reservoir releases before 2 a.m. Monday — ahead of schedule — because water levels were increasing at a rate of more than six inches (15 centimeters) per hour, Corps spokesman Jay Townsend said. The timetable was moved up to prevent more homes from being flooded, Townsend said.

Meanwhile, officials in Fort Bend County, Houston's southwestern suburbs, late Sunday issued mandatory evacuation orders along the Brazos River levee districts. County officials were preparing for the river to reach major flood stages late Sunday. County Judge Robert Herbert said at a news conference that National Weather Service officials were predicting that the water could rise to 59 feet (18 meters), three feet (90 centimeters) above 2016 records and what Herbert called an "800-year flood level." Herbert said that amount of water would top the levees and carries a threat of levee failure.

http://kfdm.com/news/nation-world/batte ... 2017/?jkfh

I saw this over the weekend and was wondering if anyone know why they hadn't opened them earlier, prior to the event, to try and draw down as much water as possible. In some water management scenarios, releasing as much water as possible prior to the rainfall would allow more of the peak of the runoff to be partially detained and possibly reduce peak flows downstream.

[tolakram]

Still watching Hurricanetracks live camera.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF?utm_campaign=ustre.am&utm_source=ustre.am%2F1rAmM&utm_medium=social&utm_content=20170827055058



High water point that I witnessed:


With levee releases and more rain on the way this could change quickly!

[Aric Dunn]

Like the weather channel was saying, this may gain 5 mph additional strength once offshore, but dry air is definitely being entrained into it. So it may not even gain that much.

yes dry air is present at the moment. but the models are saying it wont last.. with a lot of wrap around moisture. I think only reason it wont deepen a lot is becasue it spent too much time over land and will have to rebuild itself from the beginning.. which is a good thing. I say it probably gets to 50 mph may 60 if it gets as far out as the Euro and UKMET nd RGEM

[ronjon]

Winds starting to come up in Houston (9 am CDT).

HOUSTON BUSH LGT RAIN 72 69 90 NE28G37 29.69R

[srainhoutx]

convectipon starting to fill in all around the center.. heavy rains return to houston area.. not looking good. if the center deepens then the rain increases..

Pressure falls have been around 1mb every 3 hours since Midnight. I have had gusts to 40 well away from the center in NW Harris County. Getting concerned about trees falling now with the ground fully saturated.

[Aric Dunn]

convectipon starting to fill in all around the center.. heavy rains return to houston area.. not looking good. if the center deepens then the rain increases..

Pressure falls have been around 1mb every 3 hours since Midnight. I have had gusts to 40 well away from the center in NW Harris County. Getting concerned about trees falling now with the ground fully saturated.

well since its partially back on land it wont do too much. it should drop se again shortly looks its doing a cyclonic loop.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://baycitytribune.com/community/art ... l?mode=jqm Bay city mandatory evacuation for entire city by 1 pm. 10 ft of water expected in every structure. Latest census says over 17k people live there.

[catskillfire51]

I live in Lake Jackson, Tx 2 min from Freeport. So far just scattered rain some heavy at times. The big deal for us is the brazos river and waiting to see when it will flood.

[artist]

Jeff Lindner, flood control district, new evacuation-

Cypress Creek, Inverness Forest subdivision, water could go over roofs.
on twc

[Aric Dunn]

I live in Lake Jackson, Tx 2 min from Freeport. So far just scattered rain some heavy at times. The big deal for us is the brazos river and waiting to see when it will flood.

you have some heavier storms coming in about 20 min winds will likely gust into the 40s.

[ronjon]

convectipon starting to fill in all around the center.. heavy rains return to houston area.. not looking good. if the center deepens then the rain increases..

Pressure falls have been around 1mb every 3 hours since Midnight. I have had gusts to 40 well away from the center in NW Harris County. Getting concerned about trees falling now with the ground fully saturated.

well since its partially back on land it wont do too much. it should drop se again shortly looks its doing a cyclonic loop.

Aric, center might be pulling itself toward heavy convective band to its north too.

[ronjon]

Houston getting pounded with training heavy cells again. The city just can't catch a break.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/tx/houston-galveston/hgx/?region=sat&MR=1

[ronyan]

I live in Lake Jackson, Tx 2 min from Freeport. So far just scattered rain some heavy at times. The big deal for us is the brazos river and waiting to see when it will flood.

Also in LJ, oyster creek is a concern. It was at 8 ft yesterday @ Old Angleton railroad bridge but I haven't rechecked the level. The Brazos flooding is forecast to be much more serious at Richmond than at Brazoria. We have had 8 inches of rain over 72 hours so not too serious in the respect.

[vbhoutex]

Winds starting to come up in Houston (9 am CDT).

HOUSTON BUSH LGT RAIN 72 69 90 NE28G37 29.69R

Yes, it is windy here, even compared to previous. Seeing gusts in the 40mph range on the NW side with sustained in the 20s. Biggest concerns are now the continued massive flooding and the fact we may start having more power outages with the winds bringing down trees due to ground saturation. 17.09" at my house and that is actually low for the area.

[Snowman67]

Are the calls for an additional 15+ inches in Harris County likely, given that the heaviest bands/training has moved NE of the area? If so, what will be the impetus for this - additional feeder bands forming now that the system is back over water?

Thanks.

[tolakram]

So that picture I took of the Brays Bayou. I found the location using google street view. Really underscores the magnitude of the flooding! Note square sewer plate and sign.





Yesterday

[ronyan]

Currently the cells over Houston are not that heavy compared to what was seen the other night. I'm looking at around 1 in/hour in some spots, Pearland/Friendswood area is heavier upwards of 2-3"/hr on the south side of Houston.

[Aric Dunn]

Currently the cells over Houston are not that heavy compared to what was seen the other night. I'm looking at around 1 in/hour in some spots, Pearland/Friendswood area is heavier upwards of 2-3"/hr on the south side of Houston.

anything is bad right now..

[Frank P]

center bouncing around as some models indicated earlier, and looks like it is trying consolidate right on the coast, perhaps getting tugged a little to the building convection just off the NE of the center...