ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Pressure continues to drop.

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28
Location: 28.6°N 95.8°W
Moving: ESE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Actually that is 1 mb higher then the previous advisory I believe.

[artist]

Mike O'Neill @MovieMinuteMike
·
5h
#BREAKING @katyisd has opened Morton Ranch HS and Cinco Ranch HS as shelters for people in the Katy area. #khou11 #harvey

[stormreader]

Pressure continues to drop.

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28
Location: 28.6°N 95.8°W
Moving: ESE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Its going to be really interesting to see, what intensity Harvey attains before landfall near Port Arthur (my best guess) or thereabouts. Those of us who have watched these systems for years know that sometimes the models and numbers don't tell the story when it comes to intensification. Euro and others, great for landfall forecast (much improved over the years)...but intensity.... we're going to have to wait and see. I think 60-65 mph at second landfall is a reasonable and conservative guess at this time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Winds here in Sugar land/missouri city are up substantially. Having gusts to 30, maybe 35 for the last 2 hours. Prolly highest winds in the storm.

[artist]

BARC Houston
BARC Houston @BARC_Houston
UPDATE regarding George R. Brown shelter: Hall "A" in the GRB has been designated for evacuees with pets as of... (link: http://fb.me/6XSHzo5eA) fb.me/6XSHzo5eA

[tolakram]

Pressure continues to drop.

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28
Location: 28.6°N 95.8°W
Moving: ESE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Actually that is 1 mb higher then the previous advisory I believe.

You're right. 4am was 998, 997 at 7am, now back to 998.

[txwatcher91]

Pressure continues to drop.

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28
Location: 28.6°N 95.8°W
Moving: ESE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Actually that is 1 mb higher then the previous advisory I believe.

You're right. 4am was 998, 997 at 7am, now back to 998.

I believe Aric posted a buoy ob that was a 996mb and falling, so the advisory may be a little off too?

[stormreader]

Winds here in Sugar land/missouri city are up substantially. Having gusts to 30, maybe 35 for the last 2 hours. Prolly highest winds in the storm.

Ben hearing that much of the morning from people in Houston area. I take those anecdotal reports seriously. Storm center is hardly any closer to Houston than earlier (perhaps slightly), but I think you're sensing that you have a storm which is now for all intents and purposes back over water and in a reorganizing phase.

[HurricaneAce]

Hey new here, got people down in Texas/LA what are the odds of this storm flooding LA?

[stormreader]

If you are looking for green shoots of hope they are not to be found in the 12z GFA or NAM HIRES precip runs. Tonight looks to be a long night around houston, into tomorrow morning. Rain certainly isnt letting up there today like I thought it might. IN any case, still no major signs that another deluge will come all at once like the other night, but it all bears close watching. Nam wants to hit it with from the onshore than swing a ball of major precip back over it on the west side of the center as it passess... a 1 - 2 punch.

That NAM sounds very reasonable. With some intensification (doesn't have to be too much) you'll get that consolidation around the center, rotating around and giving the west side a good dose upon landfall.

[Steve]

Hey new here, got people down in Texas/LA what are the odds of this storm flooding LA?

Chances of flooding of SW and SC LA good. SELA depends on bands. We have tornadoes coming up now with some of the periphery.

http://www.weather.gov/lix/

Flash Flood Warnings all over SW:
http://www.weather.gov/lch/

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Winds here in Sugar land/missouri city are up substantially. Having gusts to 30, maybe 35 for the last 2 hours. Prolly highest winds in the storm.

Ben hearing that much of the morning from people in Houston area. I take those anecdotal reports seriously. Storm center is hardly any closer to Houston than earlier (perhaps slightly), but I think you're sensing that you have a storm which is now for all intents and purposes back over water and in a reorganizing phase.

Winds coming out of the NNE too. Its trying to pull itself together.

[tolakram]

Hey new here, got people down in Texas/LA what are the odds of this storm flooding LA?

La will experience some flooding, not sure how much yet. Local weather offices should have issued expected flooding maps. This is the latest from the Weather Prediction Center, NOAA.

[GCANE]

Large tower firing now and pushing out a clearing to its SE & South.
Likely a step-function of latent heating possibly creating a warm core.

[HurricaneAce]

Hey new here, got people down in Texas/LA what are the odds of this storm flooding LA?

La will experience some flooding, not sure how much yet. Local weather offices should have issued expected flooding maps. This is the latest from the Weather Prediction Center, NOAA.

Ok thanks, looks like enough to cause some headaches

[GCANE]

That tower popped right with CIN clearing out.

[GCANE]

Looks like it'll slowly move into a Theta-E ridge.
This may go.

[artist]

https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/tx.php?x=1
Last updated: 13:05 CDT on 08-28-2017
Flash Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 1:05PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 4:00PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Chambers; Liberty
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 1:05PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Jackson
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 1:05PM CDT
Expiring: September 02 at 4:36AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Jackson
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 1:05PM CDT
Expiring: September 02 at 3:10PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Colorado; Jackson; Wharton
Flash Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:55PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 7:00PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Jasper; Tyler
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 1:30PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Galveston
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 3:15PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Brazoria; Fort Bend; Matagorda
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 4:00PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Chambers; Liberty
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 6:15PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Harris
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: August 29 at 12:00AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Polk
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Madison
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Austin
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Houston
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: August 29 at 11:17AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Grimes
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:San Jacinto; Trinity
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Brazos; Washington
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Colorado
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: August 29 at 8:15PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Montgomery
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: August 30 at 2:30AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Burleson
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: August 31 at 5:00PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Walker
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: September 02 at 1:27AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Wharton
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:54PM CDT
Expiring: September 02 at 9:40AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Waller
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:51PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Hardin; Liberty; Polk
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:51PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Liberty; Polk; San Jacinto
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:51PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Liberty; Polk; San Jacinto
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:51PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Trinity; Walker
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:51PM CDT
Expiring: September 02 at 11:40AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Polk; San Jacinto
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:39PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Chambers; Liberty
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:39PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Chambers; Liberty
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:39PM CDT
Expiring: September 02 at 9:40AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Madison; Walker
Flash Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:32PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 6:45PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Newton; Orange
Flash Flood Watch
Issued: August 28 at 12:28PM CDT
Expiring: August 29 at 7:00AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Anderson; Bell; Falls; Freestone; Leon; Limestone; Milam; Robertson
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:24PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Angelina; Cherokee; Nacogdoches
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:23PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Burleson; Lee
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:23PM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Austin; Brazoria; Fort Bend; Waller

[HurricaneAce]

Hey new here, got people down in Texas/LA what are the odds of this storm flooding LA?

Chances of flooding of SW and SC LA good. SELA depends on bands. We have tornadoes coming up now with some of the periphery.

http://www.weather.gov/lix/

Flash Flood Warnings all over SW:
http://www.weather.gov/lch/

Thanks man those are some vicious looking bands. This definitely will be worse than expected

[artist]

Louisiana

Last updated: 13:20 CDT on 08-28-2017
Flood Advisory
Issued: August 28 at 1:20PM CDT
Expiring: August 29 at 12:00AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Jefferson; Orleans; St. Charles
Tornado Warning
Issued: August 28 at 1:02PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 1:30PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Cameron
Flash Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:59PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 7:15PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Allen; Beauregard; Jefferson Davis; Vernon
Tornado Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:58PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 1:30PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:St. Martin; St. Mary
Tornado Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:34PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 1:30PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Lafourche; St. Charles
Flash Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 12:32PM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 6:45PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Beauregard; Calcasieu; Cameron; Jefferson Davis
Tornado Watch
Issued: August 28 at 12:13PM CDT
Expiring: August 29 at 12:00AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Acadia; Ascension; Assumption; Calcasieu; Cameron; East Baton Rouge; Iberia; Iberville; Jefferson; Jefferson Davis; Lafayette; Lafourche; Livingston; Orleans; Plaquemines; St. Bernard; St. Charles; St. James; St. John The Baptist; St. Martin; St. Mary; St. Tammany; Tangipahoa; Terrebonne; Vermilion; West Baton Rouge
Hurricane Local Statement
Issued: August 28 at 11:49AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:East Cameron; Vermilion; West Cameron
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Acadia; Jefferson Davis; Vermilion
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Beauregard; Calcasieu
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Calcasieu
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Calcasieu
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Lafayette; Vermilion
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Calcasieu
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Vernon
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Beauregard
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Rapides
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Allen; Jefferson Davis
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Beauregard; Vernon
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Acadia; Allen; Evangeline; Jefferson Davis
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: September 01 at 7:00AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Acadia; Evangeline; St. Landry
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:52AM CDT
Expiring: September 02 at 8:30AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Allen
Flash Flood Watch
Issued: August 28 at 10:21AM CDT
Expiring: August 31 at 7:00PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Assumption; Iberville; Lower Lafourche; Lower Terrebonne; Pointe Coupee; Upper Lafourche; Upper Terrebonne
Flash Flood Watch
Issued: August 28 at 10:21AM CDT
Expiring: August 31 at 7:00PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Ascension; East Baton Rouge; East Feliciana; Livingston; Lower Jefferson; Lower Plaquemines; Lower St. Bernard; Northern Tangipahoa; Orleans; Southern Tangipahoa; St. Charles; St. Helena; St. James; St. John The Baptist; St. Tammany; Upper Jefferson; Upper Plaquemines; Upper St. Bernard; Washington; West Baton Rouge; West Feliciana
Tropical Storm Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:20AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:West Cameron
Tropical Storm Watch
Issued: August 28 at 10:20AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Future
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Vermilion
Tropical Storm Watch
Issued: August 28 at 10:20AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Future
Status: Actual
Areas affected:East Cameron
Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 10:16AM CDT
Expiring: until further notice Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Lafayette; Vermilion
Flash Flood Watch
Issued: August 28 at 9:55AM CDT
Expiring: August 29 at 7:00AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Sabine
Flash Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 9:37AM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 2:30PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Acadia; Iberia; Lafayette; St. Landry; St. Martin; St. Mary; Vermilion
Flash Flood Warning
Issued: August 28 at 9:28AM CDT
Expiring: August 28 at 3:30PM CDT Urgency: Immediate
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Allen; Avoyelles; Evangeline; Rapides; St. Landry; Vernon
Coastal Flood Advisory
Issued: August 28 at 5:00AM CDT
Expiring: August 30 at 7:00AM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:East Cameron; Vermilion; West Cameron
Flash Flood Watch
Issued: August 28 at 4:44AM CDT
Expiring: August 31 at 7:00PM CDT Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual
Areas affected:Acadia; Allen; Avoyelles; Beauregard; Calcasieu; East Cameron; Evangeline; Iberia; Jefferson Davis; Lafayette; Lower St. Martin; Rapides; St. Landry; St. Mary; Upper St. Martin; Vermilion; Vernon; West Cameron

https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/la.php?x=1