ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

Appears Harvey is pulling moisture from the low over Chicago

Seriously? That is some absurd outflow

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT HARVEY HAS 45 MPH WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended east of Cameron,
Louisiana, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Bolivar, Texas, to
Morgan City, Louisiana.

[SoupBone]

Appears Harvey is pulling moisture from the low over Chicago

Seriously? That is some absurd outflow

Can someone explain how all of that massive west Texas dry air isn't kicking his butt?

[BYG Jacob]

Appears Harvey is pulling moisture from the low over Chicago

Seriously? That is some absurd outflow

Can someone explain how all of that massive west Texas dry air isn't kicking his butt?

He's still drawing enough moisture from the GoM to support him.

[SunnyThoughts]

Storm Surge watch?? Could there really be a significant storm surge? amazing

[stormreader]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT HARVEY HAS 45 MPH WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended east of Cameron,
Louisiana, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Bolivar, Texas, to
Morgan City, Louisiana.

I think Tropical Storm force winds will begin spreading sooner rather than later along the La coast. Thus the extension of the Trop Storm warning eastward to Intracoastal city. Very slow moving. Just can't expect the storm to sit off the coast without some intensification and spreading of the wind field around the system--especially to the east.

[taveanator]

Will there be recon again since it sure seems like the center is back out over open water?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... quality=92

Dry air intrusion or not, I'm worried Harvey could spring back to life if it spends too much more time over warm open water...really need recon to see pressure readings.

[1900hurricane]

3 km NAM for those who wish to view it.

[Frank P]

watching the latest loop of the GOES vis sat loop, here is where I see a "center" of Harvey, looks like it is perhaps at the mid levels than at the surface... if it is the LLC its looks to be hauling butt away from the convection...

[BYG Jacob]

3 km NAM for those who wish to view it.

Dear god...

[xironman]

Appears Harvey is pulling moisture from the low over Chicago

I don't think that would be the case. Harvey is being kept alive by the very moist low level flow from the gulf. Whatever low is in the midwest may be taking in moisture that Harvey is expelling as outflow.

[stormreader]

Storm Surge watch?? Could there really be a significant storm surge? amazing

If that wind field continues to expand eastward--which I think its doing now that its off the coast--you can see that well established cyclonic flow way off the coast now. Won't need much pressure drop at all, I think, to get those winds up to 65-70 mph. And over quite a large area, I think. Check wind obs in SW La over the next 12 hours, and I think you'll see this reflected. Think NHC is seeing this too. Harvey is not done yet.

[BYG Jacob]

watching the latest loop of the GOES vis sat loop, here is where I see a "center" of Harvey, looks like it is perhaps at the mid levels than at the surface... if it is the LLC its looks to be hauling butt away from the convection...

Or might be trying to pull it back down over the water.

[xironman]

3 km NAM for those who wish to view it.

The NAM is not great at tropical systems, but since this is sub-tropical gyre, it could be ok.

[stephen23]

Appears Harvey is pulling moisture from the low over Chicago

I don't think that would be the case. Harvey is being kept alive by the very moist low level flow from the gulf. Whatever low is in the midwest may be taking in moisture that Harvey is expelling as outflow.

Looking on weather bug app on phone there is clearly rain clouds moving in a line from Chicago through Dallas and wrapping into the West side of Harvey

[stephen23]

By the way. The training starting to set up over Dallas is not good for Houston either. It all ends up in the gulf around Houston

[xironman]

Appears Harvey is pulling moisture from the low over Chicago

I don't think that would be the case. Harvey is being kept alive by the very moist low level flow from the gulf. Whatever low is in the midwest may be taking in moisture that Harvey is expelling as outflow.

Looking on weather bug app on phone there is clearly rain clouds moving in a line from Chicago through Dallas and wrapping into the West side of Harvey

Well, it may not be a weather bug app, but here is the water vapor loop showing the distribution of moisture. And you can see how the gulf is providing moisture for the eastern half of the county.

[stormreader]

3 km NAM for those who wish to view it.

The NAM is not great at tropical systems, but since this is sub-tropical gyre, it could be ok.

Well, that's worst case scenario for SE Texas, bringing Harvey back in over Galveston, and then over Houston. At this point, I've still got to favor the Euro track further east toward the Tex-La border, but who knows.

[stormreader]

I don't think that would be the case. Harvey is being kept alive by the very moist low level flow from the gulf. Whatever low is in the midwest may be taking in moisture that Harvey is expelling as outflow.

Looking on weather bug app on phone there is clearly rain clouds moving in a line from Chicago through Dallas and wrapping into the West side of Harvey

Well, it may not be a weather bug app, but here is the water vapor loop showing the distribution of moisture.

Good for showing the dry air. Got to look at Harvey maybe becoming more sub-tropical, possibly. Better for rainfall (less), but worse for wind--easier to get up to strong tropical storm force.

[meriland29]

Do you think harvey will regain 50mph winds or more?