ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6761 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:37 pm

Frank P wrote:
stormreader wrote:
Frank P wrote:my thoughts after further review, he is well off the coast, and that is not a mid level center but the LLC that is so pronounced in the GOM, and center totally devoid of any convection due to the dry air


Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

Quite possibly, reminds me of a strong system that went south deep into the Yucatan on land from the BOC, then came back out and headed due north to the ngom, nothing but a big ole dry system that produce strong TS winds and a decent surge over here in Biloxi... can't remember its name though.. dang


Isidore '02. actually a good analog. these systems rarely stack again after spending so much time over land. Harvey will likely remain a rain threat and marginal surge threat due to coastal bathymetry but not likely a meaningful sustained wind threat.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6762 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:38 pm


Well, I just don't like the looks of that well established circulation off the coast. I'm an untrained observer for sure, but it looks mid-level, and dry, as has been noted, but its tightly wound, and ominous.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6763 Postby Callista » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:39 pm

By "pushing the water into Houston", do you mean a storm surge that reaches into Houston? Right now, the flooding there is being caused by the heavy rain. Harvey is sucking up water from the Gulf and raining it down again on Texas. Of course there is a storm surge, as there is with any hurricane, but the rain is the major cause of the flooding, as far as I can tell.

Does anybody have a current pressure and wind map of the area around Harvey? Not just the immediate area in Texas, but the surrounding states and Mexico. Maybe that would help us figure out which way those air masses might be moving.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6764 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:40 pm

Frank P wrote:
stormreader wrote:
Frank P wrote:my thoughts after further review, he is well off the coast, and that is not a mid level center but the LLC that is so pronounced in the GOM, and center totally devoid of any convection due to the dry air


Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

Quite possibly, reminds me of a strong system that went south deep into the Yucatan on land from the BOC, then came back out and headed due north to the ngom, nothing but a big ole dry system that produce strong TS winds and a decent surge over here in Biloxi... can't remember its name though.. dang

Remember that storm. It was a powerful hurricane that dove south over the Yucatan. Stayed there for days. Eventually came off, as a very large system with 65 mph winds or so. Seems like it was an "I" storm.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6765 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:40 pm

txrok wrote:Ok, I am not an expert and actually don't know a lot about weather, but just saw this post on another forum where someone is evidently speculating. My question for your experts - is something like this possible? There are a lot of little cities around the bay. I was born and raised there and have a lot of family and friends there. Is this something we should worry about?

Here's what they asked:

correct me if i'm wrong, but if it strengthens and takes the projected path when it starts moving north; would it not push the water in the gulf up past Galveston and into Houston? Would this not be worst case scenario? I don't see anyone talking about it, but if it strengthens enough over tonight and Tuesday before it turns north, this could happen?


No. Harvey is a poorly-organized tropical storm, not a Cat 4 hurricane. The wind field is more like a trof than a TS. Southerly winds averaging 15-25 mph would not create a storm surge. They'd build tides to 1-2 ft above normal. Even if Harvey did develop a well-defined circulation with a large area of 50 mph winds, the tides into Galveston bay would be perhaps 4 ft above normal - if the center moved inland west of GLS.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6766 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:40 pm

psyclone wrote:
Frank P wrote:
stormreader wrote:
Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

Quite possibly, reminds me of a strong system that went south deep into the Yucatan on land from the BOC, then came back out and headed due north to the ngom, nothing but a big ole dry system that produce strong TS winds and a decent surge over here in Biloxi... can't remember its name though.. dang


Isidore '02. actually a good analog. these systems rarely stack again after spending so much time over land. Harvey will likely remain a rain threat and marginal surge threat due to coastal bathymetry but not likely a meaningful sustained wind threat.



Is there any evidence there is major decoupling of the LLC and the MLC?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6767 Postby WeatherCat » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:41 pm

Image

Wide view of closed and flooded roads across SE Texas (as of 8/28 @ 4:20pm). No words.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6768 Postby WeatherCat » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:43 pm

WeatherCat wrote:Image

Wide view of closed and flooded roads across SE Texas (as of 8/28 @ 4:20pm). No words.


Sorry about that missing image ... apparently TinyPic deleted it seconds after providing me the link.

Anyone attempting to evacuate can visit drivetexas.org for information on road closures.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6769 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:43 pm

Callista wrote:By "pushing the water into Houston", do you mean a storm surge that reaches into Houston? Right now, the flooding there is being caused by the heavy rain. Harvey is sucking up water from the Gulf and raining it down again on Texas. Of course there is a storm surge, as there is with any hurricane, but the rain is the major cause of the flooding, as far as I can tell.

Does anybody have a current pressure and wind map of the area around Harvey? Not just the immediate area in Texas, but the surrounding states and Mexico. Maybe that would help us figure out which way those air masses might be moving.

In its current position, Harvey's onshore wind field is not going to allow any of those rivers that drain SE Tex to empty their waters into the Gulf. The water is being held up there in the river system, because of the onshore wind flow. Makes the whole drainage situation worse.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6770 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:Vortex shot southward off the TX coast in the last hour or so. Far as I can tell, that's Harvey's LLC. There appears to be a frontal boundary right on the TX coast. Almost like a warm front moving north between Houston & Galveston. Completely different rain pattern either side. Very odd.


It that's the case, what does that portend for the greater Houston area? Do you think that we are still at risk for 15 plus inches of additional rain over the next few days?

Thanks
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6771 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:46 pm

Snowman67 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Vortex shot southward off the TX coast in the last hour or so. Far as I can tell, that's Harvey's LLC. There appears to be a frontal boundary right on the TX coast. Almost like a warm front moving north between Houston & Galveston. Completely different rain pattern either side. Very odd.


It that's the case, what does that portend for the greater Houston area? Do you think that we are still at risk for 15 plus inches of additional rain over the next few days?

Thanks


I don't know, it's a very odd situation. Lots of dry air wrapping around Harvey now. I wouldn't look for a big (15"+) rain event.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6772 Postby Frank P » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:49 pm

psyclone wrote:
Frank P wrote:
stormreader wrote:
Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

Quite possibly, reminds me of a strong system that went south deep into the Yucatan on land from the BOC, then came back out and headed due north to the ngom, nothing but a big ole dry system that produce strong TS winds and a decent surge over here in Biloxi... can't remember its name though.. dang


Isidore '02. actually a good analog. these systems rarely stack again after spending so much time over land. Harvey will likely remain a rain threat and marginal surge threat due to coastal bathymetry but not likely a meaningful sustained wind threat.

thanks, I remember it being called Izzy for short, but when I looked it up I spelled is Isadore... off by one vowel.. but thanks again, I was racking my brain on this.. I remember sitting in the front yard by hwy 90, in a lawn chair catching some pretty good winds, and watching the new coliseum pier get destroyed by the surge and depositing a plethora of brand new treated lumber right on the beach in front of the house..... made a couple of hauls later that night no less helping clean up the beach..
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6773 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Vortex shot southward off the TX coast in the last hour or so. Far as I can tell, that's Harvey's LLC. There appears to be a frontal boundary right on the TX coast. Almost like a warm front moving north between Houston & Galveston. Completely different rain pattern either side. Very odd.


It that's the case, what does that portend for the greater Houston area? Do you think that we are still at risk for 15 plus inches of additional rain over the next few days?

Thanks


I don't know, it's a very odd situation. Lots of dry air wrapping around Harvey now. I wouldn't look for a big (15"+) rain event.


I've been watching the dry air all day, but for some reason, it doesn't wrap it up. I know that's not likely correct, but in the visual at least, it never makes it into his core.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6774 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:54 pm

Looks like feeder banks are starting to feed into the east side of the storm again. In my opinion looking MUCH better than earlier today.
I'll be curious to see what he does tonight.


https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6775 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:56 pm

SoupBone wrote:
I've been watching the dry air all day, but for some reason, it doesn't wrap it up. I know that's not likely correct, but in the visual at least, it never makes it into his core.


It won't wrap into the core, but the moisture feed is being cut off. May decrease the chance of very heavy rain in SE TX.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6776 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:57 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Looks like feeder banks are starting to feed into the east side of the storm again. In my opinion looking MUCH better than earlier today.
I'll be curious to see what he does tonight.


https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes


Yeah, I was observing a few mets earlier today discuss the fact that rain rates and coverage would probably increase tonight, just as they did last night in and around the Houston area.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6777 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Vortex shot southward off the TX coast in the last hour or so. Far as I can tell, that's Harvey's LLC. There appears to be a frontal boundary right on the TX coast. Almost like a warm front moving north between Houston & Galveston. Completely different rain pattern either side. Very odd.


It that's the case, what does that portend for the greater Houston area? Do you think that we are still at risk for 15 plus inches of additional rain over the next few days?

Thanks


I don't know, it's a very odd situation. Lots of dry air wrapping around Harvey now. I wouldn't look for a big (15"+) rain event.


Thanks Wxman57. Hopefully the dry air will suck some of the life out of it.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6778 Postby Frank P » Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:00 pm

Dang, that dry center is getting way off the coast, I don't think any model forecasted it to go that far out in the GOM.. really tight circulation.. cool to watch though...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6779 Postby artist » Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:00 pm

Hwy 225 and 146, near LaPorte, shelter indoors, some type of chemical spill.
Via KPRC. They will report more when they have it.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6780 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:04 pm

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