ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Doesn't seem like it is moving much now, maybe will start gaining some latitude like the models show as it consolidates:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[GeneratorPower]

What is with the stationary storms lately? I mean, this is unusual. A tropical wave that stalls by the Cape Verde islands? Never seen that in 15 years of watching this stuff. This makes me think that steering currents are erratic and weak basin-wide. This could be real trouble for any storm that does develop.

[AutoPenalti]

Doesn't seem like it is moving much now, maybe will start gaining some latitude like the models show as it consolidates:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Seems to be moving just fine, I'd say around 5-10kts.

[KWT]

Models have been showing slow motion over the next 24hrs as the system rotates around and forms a main vortex further north around 14N near the CV islands.

Indeed there are already hints of circulation in the northern convective batch at the eastern end of the convection.

[sma10]

And if the Euro is to be believed, once this consolidates in the next day, it's really off to the races maybe at close to 20mph over the next several days

[KWT]

Also whilst I never take this seriously...it seems increasingly likely that PTC-10 doesn't make it, and if it doesn't...then 93L will be the 'I' named system, which for a time between 2003-2008 delivered some monsters!

[gatorcane]

Also whilst I never take this seriously...it seems increasingly likely that PTC-10 doesn't make it, and if it doesn't...then 93L will be the 'I' named system, which for a time between 2003-2008 delivered some monsters!

Not to mention that name "Irma" sounds formidable and creepy in some ways! That name would be better suited for this invest given the bullish model guidance

[CyclonicFury]

Also whilst I never take this seriously...it seems increasingly likely that PTC-10 doesn't make it, and if it doesn't...then 93L will be the 'I' named system, which for a time between 2003-2008 delivered some monsters!

More like 2003-13. Igor, Irene, Isaac, Ingrid were all somewhat significant.

[forecasterjack]

VERY concerned about this system. All lined up. Looking at ECMWF stuff from weather.us

Crazy moist mid levels: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/28 ... 0000z.html
Diverging shear vectors, "negative wind shear": https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/28 ... 0000z.html

As for steering, I think the key is all in this loop: https://weather.us/satellite/1551-e-130 ... .html#play

bear with me lol. Recurving Typhoon in the WPAC (loop above) will pump latent heat into the high latitudes, creating a large PNA ridge. This means a large Eastern US trough. That means we can rule out the GOM (IMO). In weather, we work with zero sum systems. What goes down, must come up. This means that large E US trough means large Bermuda high. That should steer it far enough W (IMO) to put it very close to the east coast. Exactly how close will be ironed out over the next week and will determine exact track. For now though, I think it's inside Bermuda if not closer. Likely as a strong storm.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO at 50%/80%

A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a few
hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
within the next few days over the eastern Atlantic. The low is
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic
during the next several days. Regardless of development, heavy rain
is possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[galaxy401]

Well with Ten moving out of the picture, looks like this might be the infamous I storm after all...

EDIT: I missed KWT's post about the same thing. Oops.

[smithtim]

VERY concerned about this system. All lined up. Looking at ECMWF stuff from weather.us

Crazy moist mid levels: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/28 ... 0000z.html
Diverging shear vectors, "negative wind shear": https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/28 ... 0000z.html

As for steering, I think the key is all in this loop: https://weather.us/satellite/1551-e-130 ... .html#play

bear with me lol. Recurving Typhoon in the WPAC (loop above) will pump latent heat into the high latitudes, creating a large PNA ridge. This means a large Eastern US trough. That means we can rule out the GOM (IMO). In weather, we work with zero sum systems. What goes down, must come up. This means that large E US trough means large Bermuda high. That should steer it far enough W (IMO) to put it very close to the east coast. Exactly how close will be ironed out over the next week and will determine exact track. For now though, I think it's inside Bermuda if not closer. Likely as a strong storm.

Interesting stuff thanks for sharing!

As I said in the prior thread in talking topics about this storm definitely looks serious and requiring keep eye on!!! And, been hearing nearly all models support makes me believe very high potential to develop, guess that's why NHC 80%

[forecasterjack]

VERY concerned about this system. All lined up. Looking at ECMWF stuff from weather.us

Crazy moist mid levels: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/28 ... 0000z.html
Diverging shear vectors, "negative wind shear": https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/28 ... 0000z.html

As for steering, I think the key is all in this loop: https://weather.us/satellite/1551-e-130 ... .html#play

bear with me lol. Recurving Typhoon in the WPAC (loop above) will pump latent heat into the high latitudes, creating a large PNA ridge. This means a large Eastern US trough. That means we can rule out the GOM (IMO). In weather, we work with zero sum systems. What goes down, must come up. This means that large E US trough means large Bermuda high. That should steer it far enough W (IMO) to put it very close to the east coast. Exactly how close will be ironed out over the next week and will determine exact track. For now though, I think it's inside Bermuda if not closer. Likely as a strong storm.

Interesting stuff thanks for sharing!

As I said in the prior thread in talking topics about this storm definitely looks serious and requiring keep eye on!!! And, been hearing nearly all models support makes me believe very high potential to develop, guess that's why NHC 80%

Yep, very supportive environment (check out links if you haven't already) and a strong BH high makes steering setup very concerning. Will keep a close eye on it for sure!

[AutoPenalti]

Something tells me this may be a Florida threat, I hope I'm wrong though.

[forecasterjack]

Something tells me this may be a Florida threat, I hope I'm wrong though.

definitely a possibility but I think it's probably farther north. NC and up based on the strong E US trough. Just an early hunch though everyone except GOM on the table IMO

[otowntiger]

Something tells me this may be a Florida threat, I hope I'm wrong though.

definitely a possibility but I think it's probably farther north. NC and up based on the strong E US trough. Just an early hunch though everyone except GOM on the table IMO

yeah but this far there is no telling how strong the trough will be or frankly even IF it will be.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 12.2°N 22.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[CycloneCaptain]

Something tells me this may be a Florida threat, I hope I'm wrong though.

definitely a possibility but I think it's probably farther north. NC and up based on the strong E US trough. Just an early hunch though everyone except GOM on the table IMO

Agreed, I believe this to be a northern storm as well and not a Florida threat - however way too early to tell.

[southwest southerner]

Also whilst I never take this seriously...it seems increasingly likely that PTC-10 doesn't make it, and if it doesn't...then 93L will be the 'I' named system, which for a time between 2003-2008 delivered some monsters!

More like 2003-13. Igor, Irene, Isaac, Ingrid were all somewhat significant.

IKE

[cycloneye]

@StuOstro
Classic peak season swirl near Cabo Verde -- this one has "Tropical Cyclone Going to Develop" written all over it. #93L

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/902337163005751298