ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weathaguyry]

Something tells me this may be a Florida threat, I hope I'm wrong though.

definitely a possibility but I think it's probably farther north. NC and up based on the strong E US trough. Just an early hunch though everyone except GOM on the table IMO

Agreed, I believe this to be a northern storm as well and not a Florida threat - however way too early to tell.

These thoughts combined with the fact that this will likely be an "I" storm isn't very comforting

[Bocadude85]

Something tells me this may be a Florida threat, I hope I'm wrong though.

definitely a possibility but I think it's probably farther north. NC and up based on the strong E US trough. Just an early hunch though everyone except GOM on the table IMO

Agreed, I believe this to be a northern storm as well and not a Florida threat - however way too early to tell.

93L is 3k miles from the US Coast and has not even devolved yet and you guys are already speculating that this potential system won't be a threat to Florida but will be a threat further up the coast? Steering patterns are constantly changing and the models are almost never right with their 10 day forecasts, it is way to early to be guessing which state could or could not be threatened.

[RL3AO]

93L is 3k miles from the US Coast and has not even devolved yet and you guys are already speculating that this potential system won't be a threat to Florida but will be a threat further up the coast? Steering patterns are constantly changing and the models are almost never right with their 10 day forecasts, it is way to early to be guessing which state could or could not be threatened.

You'd think we'd get used to these posts after 11+ years, but nope.

[HURAKAN]

93L is 3k miles from the US Coast and has not even devolved yet and you guys are already speculating that this potential system won't be a threat to Florida but will be a threat further up the coast? Steering patterns are constantly changing and the models are almost never right with their 10 day forecasts, it is way to early to be guessing which state could or could not be threatened.

You'd think we'd get used to these posts have 11+ years, but nope.

[bamajammer4eva]

If the current PTC 10 Fails to get designated will TD 10 be given to 93L or has TD 10 already been used whether it actually develops or not??

[floridasun78]

this far out wont worry or go nut with it untll 1,000 mile east of islands models are going chance over 200 time time it get 1,000 mile of island rgan still change again yes nhc have going be strong system but that unknown now

[floridasun78]

If the current PTC 10 Fails to get designated will TD 10 be given to 93L or has TD 10 already been used whether it actually develops or not??

that i know ptc 10 have not upgrade to td their say may not be next ts storm chance dropping to be next ts

[CyclonicFury]

If the current PTC 10 Fails to get designated will TD 10 be given to 93L or has TD 10 already been used whether it actually develops or not??

It would be TD 11.

[fci]

If the current PTC 10 Fails to get designated will TD 10 be given to 93L or has TD 10 already been used whether it actually develops or not??

It would be TD 11.

Did I miss TD #10?

[CyclonicFury]

If the current PTC 10 Fails to get designated will TD 10 be given to 93L or has TD 10 already been used whether it actually develops or not??

It would be TD 11.

Did I miss TD #10?

No, PTC #10 is 10L. This new PTC system is going to throw off the seasonal totals.

[AubreyStorm]

2am

As of 2:00 am EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...
A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a couple
of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
within the next few days over the eastern Atlantic. The low is
forecast to move generally westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is possible over portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[TheStormExpert]

It would be TD 11.

Did I miss TD #10?

No, PTC #10 is 10L. This new PTC system is going to throw off the seasonal totals.

I hope they don't count PTC#10 towards the season totals.

[RL3AO]

I think the GFS has a good idea on development. We'll probably see slow consolidation over the next 3 days or so with a depression or weak storm for a few days following. This will be mostly due to SST's in the 26 to 27C range and some mid latitude subsiding air getting into the system. Then intensification begins after that.

[GCANE]

Impressive convergence on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[bob rulz]

I think the GFS has a good idea on development. We'll probably see slow consolidation over the next 3 days or so with a depression or weak storm for a few days following. This will be mostly due to SST's in the 26 to 27C range and some mid latitude subsiding air getting into the system. Then intensification begins after that.

The longer it takes to develop, the further west it has a chance to go. I'm not going to be one of the silly people saying "I feel like this is going to threaten X place" but a strong-looking CV wave with nearly unanimous model support but that takes a bit of time to develop is always something you have to have some apprehension about.

[GCANE]

Lots of energy with this one.
All ready firing very strong, off-scale rain-rate cells.

[KWT]

That high rate cell is exactly where the models have pegged formation to begin.

Models trending weaker with this in the short term, which has kinda been the trend this season, overestimating the eastern part of the basin and underdoing the western part of the basin.

Given it gets decently north towards 20N by 35W it will likely run into some cooler waters.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO up to 70%-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area near
the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days over the
eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the
next several days. Heavy rain is possible over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2017082912, , BEST, 0, 152N, 237W, 25, 1008, LO

[gatorcane]

coming into view on far right....: