ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6941 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:28 pm

poof121 wrote:Center looks near here, 997.4 mb.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019&unit=M&tz=STN


its pretty clear its nearby.. its very exposed and farther offshore than expected. if the dry air filters out could see more convection near the center before landfall in 36 hours +

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6942 Postby PaulR » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:29 pm

canetracker wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:Please pray for EVERYONE IN HOUSTON or whatever you do. We have at least 2 different levees getting ready to breach and emergency evacuations are in progress. We have family that has already been affected and are safe, but our daughters neighborhood is filling up and we have had to give them instructions what to do to be safe. They have a second story to go to, so they should be safe, but this rain is relentless and it has no where to go. I have verified amounts over 3 feet from some friends and we are approaching 20" at out house but are not flooded so far. This is catastrophic for 10s of thousands if not 100s of thousands of people and we see no end in sight for at least 24 hours if not longer.

This is so sad. Praying for everyone in Houston. Please keep us posted.


My prayers too. My friends and relatives in the region seem to be safe / ok, so one might think I'd just be lurking here out of a more detached interest, but instead I find myself reading these posts with wet eyes, sometimes.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6943 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:30 pm

Image

no organised core.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6944 Postby Langinbang187 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:39 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Image

no organised core.


Yea Harvey is definitely not tropical anymore. Too bad he's still pouring rain all over Texas....hopefully everything holds up.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6945 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:42 pm

I'm not saying that he is tropical or subtropical, I just know I am not gonna breath a complete sigh of relief until he is over Kentucky.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6946 Postby lisa0825 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:44 pm

Blinhart wrote:I'm not saying that he is tropical or subtropical, I just know I am not gonna breath a complete sigh of relief until he is over Kentucky.


AMEN to that!!!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6947 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:46 pm

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

The center of Harvey has been moving east-southeastward over the
extreme western Gulf of Mexico this evening. Although there is no
deep convection near the center of Harvey, thunderstorm activity has
continued to increase well north of the center, along the immediate
northwest Gulf Coast and has spread inland over the Greater Houston
area, worsening the catastrophic flooding situation. Another band
of heavy rainfall is moving inland over portions of southern and
southwestern Louisiana. Widespread rainfall totals of 30 to 36
inches have been observed in southeastern Texas and the Houston
Metropolitan Area. Storm totals could reach 50 inches in some
locations, which would be historic for the area.

A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site near Matagorda Bay has
continued to report sustained tropical-storm-force winds this
evening, and data from this and other nearby stations still support
an initial intensity of 40 kt. Given the current structure of the
cyclone and the lack of convection near the center, little change
in strength is expected while Harvey moves over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. After landfall in about 36 hours, gradual weakening
should occur as the circulation moves farther inland.

Harvey has been moving east-southeastward or 120/3 kt. The storm
is forecast to turn northeastward, then north-northeastward over
the next couple of days as a ridge to the northwest of the system
weakens and Harvey is steered around the western side of a ridge
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance has shifted
slightly eastward and the new NHC track has been adjusted in that
direction.


Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 10
to 20 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with
isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice
of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe
place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products
from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A
summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spreading farther east into Louisiana.
Additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are expected in
southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches
expected in south-central Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches are expected in southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi
and Alabama. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office and the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding
hazard in these areas.

3. While Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended eastward along
the coast of Louisiana and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued, the
impacts of winds and storm surge are expected to be secondary
compared to that of the rains.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 28.2N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 28.1N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 28.5N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 29.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 30.7N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0000Z 33.4N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0000Z 35.5N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/0000Z 38.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6948 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:47 pm

southerngale wrote:Update...

Most of Pinewood is flooded and most have evacuated. Hundreds of homes.Catastrophic flooding. There's been many rescues by boat. Sandbags have been useless. Water coming up in my backyard. My street flooded. The entrance to Pinewood is flooded and Hwy 105 is flooded in both directions. It's been closed from Pinewood to Sour Lake (and beyond?) all day, but a few hours ago, I received pics of it flooded near Bevil Oaks (a few miles from here, if that) Have generator on now, but will eventually run out of gas. Have extra gas cans, but not enough for days. Getting very worried we will flood, but can't drive out. Would have to be by boat. Pine Island Bayou will crest at or above the record set in 1994. My house has never flooded and they built a new, huge drainage ditch that would supposedly help in situations like this, but Harvey just laughed at it. We lost electricity last night and the estimated time of restoration is August 31st and I doubt that will happen. I've been watching the water rise in my backyard since earlier this afternoon and now that it's dark, will be harder to do. I have a ways to go, but it's still rising, raining and more rain coming. I have been praying for my community, neighboring cities flooded, Houston, and all areas affected. We don't get the attention Houston gets as we're a MUCH smaller metropolis, but we'd appreciate some prayers. Very nervous.
I'll post pics when I have more time and electricity.


unfortunately, the worst of the future flooding may affect the BPT area, since that is where landfall may occur. It would need to go east of Lake Charles to greatly reduce the flood threat
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6949 Postby meriland29 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:49 pm

Looks like harvey is still a TS according to NHC
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6950 Postby lisa0825 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:51 pm

I apologize if this has been posted already...

This is about a 15 min drive north of me.... drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/embed/6xmV7YfeQds
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6951 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:55 pm

Alyono wrote:
southerngale wrote:Update...

Most of Pinewood is flooded and most have evacuated. Hundreds of homes.Catastrophic flooding. There's been many rescues by boat. Sandbags have been useless. Water coming up in my backyard. My street flooded. The entrance to Pinewood is flooded and Hwy 105 is flooded in both directions. It's been closed from Pinewood to Sour Lake (and beyond?) all day, but a few hours ago, I received pics of it flooded near Bevil Oaks (a few miles from here, if that) Have generator on now, but will eventually run out of gas. Have extra gas cans, but not enough for days. Getting very worried we will flood, but can't drive out. Would have to be by boat. Pine Island Bayou will crest at or above the record set in 1994. My house has never flooded and they built a new, huge drainage ditch that would supposedly help in situations like this, but Harvey just laughed at it. We lost electricity last night and the estimated time of restoration is August 31st and I doubt that will happen. I've been watching the water rise in my backyard since earlier this afternoon and now that it's dark, will be harder to do. I have a ways to go, but it's still rising, raining and more rain coming. I have been praying for my community, neighboring cities flooded, Houston, and all areas affected. We don't get the attention Houston gets as we're a MUCH smaller metropolis, but we'd appreciate some prayers. Very nervous.
I'll post pics when I have more time and electricity.


unfortunately, the worst of the future flooding may affect the BPT area, since that is where landfall may occur. It would need to go east of Lake Charles to greatly reduce the flood threat


We have a boat. We will come get you!! Let me know.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6952 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:55 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:As bad as it is in Houston, I'm very shocked that it's not much much worse. There must be enough breaks between these areas of rain to be able to allow for drainage, which is great news. The way that it looked Sunday Morning, I was thinking that we would be seeing only rooftops of the city with all the feet of rain. I know it's not quite over yet. I'll just keep hoping for good news


I think the people in Houston don't want to hear this at the moment while they're watching the water approach them...

EDIT: This is my 1000th post! Finally after five years! :lol:
Last edited by galaxy401 on Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6953 Postby O Town » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:59 pm

southerngale wrote:Update...

Most of Pinewood is flooded and most have evacuated. Hundreds of homes.Catastrophic flooding. There's been many rescues by boat. Sandbags have been useless. Water coming up in my backyard. My street flooded. The entrance to Pinewood is flooded and Hwy 105 is flooded in both directions. It's been closed from Pinewood to Sour Lake (and beyond?) all day, but a few hours ago, I received pics of it flooded near Bevil Oaks (a few miles from here, if that) Have generator on now, but will eventually run out of gas. Have extra gas cans, but not enough for days. Getting very worried we will flood, but can't drive out. Would have to be by boat. Pine Island Bayou will crest at or above the record set in 1994. My house has never flooded and they built a new, huge drainage ditch that would supposedly help in situations like this, but Harvey just laughed at it. We lost electricity last night and the estimated time of restoration is August 31st and I doubt that will happen. I've been watching the water rise in my backyard since earlier this afternoon and now that it's dark, will be harder to do. I have a ways to go, but it's still rising, raining and more rain coming. I have been praying for my community, neighboring cities flooded, Houston, and all areas affected. We don't get the attention Houston gets as we're a MUCH smaller metropolis, but we'd appreciate some prayers. Very nervous.
I'll post pics when I have more time and electricity.

Wow, Kelly that doesn't sound good. Kept thinking things were a bit better where you were. Your previous posts sounded hopeful. Sure hope the water stabilizes soon. It's got to be a scary scenario, watching the water come closer. Your definitely in my prayers as is all that is going through this horrible situation. Keep us posted. Definitely thinking about ya. <3
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6954 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:01 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:As bad as it is in Houston, I'm very shocked that it's not much much worse. There must be enough breaks between these areas of rain to be able to allow for drainage, which is great news. The way that it looked Sunday Morning, I was thinking that we would be seeing only rooftops of the city with all the feet of rain. I know it's not quite over yet. I'll just keep hoping for good news


I think the people in Houston don't want to hear this at the moment while they're watching the water approach them...


Yeah I think this is not a good time to find bogus silver linings. This is bad.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6955 Postby PaulR » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:02 pm

Blinhart wrote:I'm not saying that he is tropical or subtropical, I just know I am not gonna breath a complete sigh of relief until he is over Kentucky.


People in the parts of KY that Ike blasted may have a problem with that...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6956 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:02 pm

The convergence line Aric Dunn has pointed to is the ongoing reason for all the catastrophic flooding.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6957 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:02 pm

Just saw a post where they use flood water in trash bags to hold back flood water. Perfect!!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6958 Postby PaulR » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:05 pm

I'm watching the coverage on ABC13 (Houston) of guys in huge construction vehicles hauling rescued people to safety - amazing...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6959 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:08 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:As bad as it is in Houston, I'm very shocked that it's not much much worse. There must be enough breaks between these areas of rain to be able to allow for drainage, which is great news. The way that it looked Sunday Morning, I was thinking that we would be seeing only rooftops of the city with all the feet of rain. I know it's not quite over yet. I'll just keep hoping for good news



I'm watching abc13.com There are people being rescued at this time. There is a man driving a front end loaded up and down a main road..at every intersection there are people standing waiting to be rescued. Crying for help and he can only take a few at a time. They are scared and trying to climb on the sides of the front end loader he said earlier. He said they need more HELP. This is on ONE road ..imagine how many people need to be rescued. It's raining, there are children shivering...everybody is soaking wet and they are having to wait to be taken to a walmart, where they are boarded on another vehicle and taken to a shelter, shelters which are running out of blankets, food...etc. Its bad, trust me...its bad.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6960 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:09 pm

Harvey is still tropical per NHC so time to move along with those posts IMO.

By the way do we finally see some convection forming around the center?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... x&loop=yes
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