WPAC: - MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Huh, another JMA tropical depression. Looks like they're expecting to name it "Mawar" in a day or so. No JTWC invest designation for this one at the moment as far as I can tell.

TD
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 28 August 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 28 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N17°10' (17.2°)
E133°10' (133.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 29 August>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N17°10' (17.2°)
E130°00' (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 29 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°10' (17.2°)
E127°00' (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Pretty surprised it's not yet tagged as an invest.
Im not sure if it's already fully removed from the massive circulation of Sanvu but it really does look good on IR atm.
I think it got a boost from a ULL to its NW which has already moved away.
I'm also quite surprised bout the Euro 00z dropping this after it showed development yesterday.

[doomhaMwx]

12Z ASCAT pass... Lolz!

[mrbagyo]

We now have a floater - 90W

[doomhaMwx]

It may be another Southern China threat after it passes through Luzon, and most of the intensification will probably occur once it arrives over South China Sea, like the most recent storms Hato and Pakhar...

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 170828 1800 17.8N 131.4E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

[dexterlabio]

Does anyone see a hint of circulation? Basing on the satloop, it looks like the motion of cloud clusters are linear. I don't know if this is one of the few cases of JMA hyping on a naked swirl (and this doesn't even look like it has one).

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

Does anyone see a hint of circulation? Basing on the satloop, it looks like the motion of cloud clusters are linear. I don't know if this is one of the few cases of JMA hyping on a naked swirl (and this doesn't even look like it has one).

Well, there's a slight SW & SE low level wind flow component in it which can be seen on vis satloop.
There's also a positive low level convergence and good amount of vorticity associated with our system.
ATM, the circulation looks really broad and elongated.

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 170829 0600 17.6N 128.5E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

Does anyone see a hint of circulation? Basing on the satloop, it looks like the motion of cloud clusters are linear. I don't know if this is one of the few cases of JMA hyping on a naked swirl (and this doesn't even look like it has one).

Well, there's a slight SW & SE low level wind flow component in it which can be seen on vis satloop.
There's also a positive low level convergence and good amount of vorticity associated with our system.
ATM, the circulation looks really broad and elongated.

JMA is known to classify every disturbance as a TD no matter how it looks in the tropics. In fact, they have 2 classification for TD. 1. A minor TD...2. TD with gale warning that is forecast to become a TS within the next 24 hours but without no reasoning or discussion. Just imagine Harvey without the valuable discussions...

[euro6208]

Well at least all of the global models develops this in some way mostly after it hits Luzon.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA no longer expecting it to become a Tropical Storm before hitting Luzon...

TD
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 29 August 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 29 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N17°00' (17.0°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa

[euro6208]

JTWC has dropped this from BT.

[doomhaMwx]

The disturbance has been designated as an Invest again... (91W)...
I think we should just continue the discussion in this thread...

91W INVEST 170830 0000 17.7N 122.7E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 170830 0600 17.6N 121.1E WPAC 20 1004

Latest has the center over Luzon.

[doomhaMwx]

Models have come into a better agreement that it'll become a Tropical Cyclone over the South China Sea... It will turn NW-NNW and cross the coast of Southern China probably this coming weekend...

[euro6208]

If it does verify, it will be the 4th TC to hit the area this season and 3rd straight starting with Hato.

[euro6208]

Straight to MEDIUM!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.7N 122.7E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WELL DEFINED
BANDING. A 300154Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OVER LUZON,
REEMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.