ATL: IRMA - Models

[gatorcane]

what I find interesting is that if you look at the GFS at 234 hours corresponding to the 240 hour Euro the big Midwest/EC trough is already lifting out (quicker than the Euro). It has 93L has strong hurricane already recurving. I think if 93L were further south like the Euro shows it would allow the ridge to build back in over the Western Atlantic in the wake of the trough driving the system more west:

[Frank2]

Here's a good spaghetti product from a local source:

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[cycloneye]

[RL3AO]

A 6000 m height at 500 mb over the Atlantic is quite remarkable.

[Blown Away]

12z...

[SouthFLTropics]

A 6000 m height at 500 mb over the Atlantic is quite remarkable.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/D5QZFBZ.png

To be clear, are you saying that the Euro may be overdoing the strength of the ridge?

[SFLcane]

It can happen BUT i'll be shocked if this system makes past the islands at that latitude.

[LarryWx]

A 6000 m height at 500 mb over the Atlantic is quite remarkable.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/D5QZFBZ.png

To be clear, are you saying that the Euro may be overdoing the strength of the ridge?

I've noticed over the years that the Euro often overdoes the strength of ridges. I think it is a bias. As you get further out in time, the Euro tends to show weaker ridges.

[RL3AO]

This is also a borderline extreme synoptic pattern over North America (probably influenced some by the recurving Typhoon Sanvu) that the Euro is really good at picking out a day or two sooner than the other global models. Very complex forecast for the entire US including the potential for widespread record low temps across the central US.



The GFS is pretty much on board now too, but it's a little more progressive over North America. Also the track of 93L over the Atlantic is very likely impacting the development of the ridge in the GFS. If the storm is actually further south than the GFS shows, it'll likely going to have the Bermuda ridge intensifying.

[SFLcane]

Another view of 12z tracks WSW dive towards the end.

[gatorcane]

00Z Euro animation. Quite an epic track if this verifies. Look at the bend SW east of the Lesser Antilles. Pretty remarkable:

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That setup RL3AO you posted would be juicy in winter for snow.

[RL3AO]

That setup would be juicy in winter for snow.

Reminds me a lot of the November 2014 event. Recurving typhoon amplifies the Rossby wave train leading to record cold and 16" of snow for me in Minnesota.

[NDG]

A 6000 m height at 500 mb over the Atlantic is quite remarkable.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/D5QZFBZ.png

To be clear, are you saying that the Euro may be overdoing the strength of the ridge?

I've noticed over the years that the Euro often overdoes the strength of ridges. I think it is a bias. As you get further out in time, the Euro tends to show weaker ridges.

I have seen it go both ways.

Here is a good example, current ridge to the north of the Antilles is stronger than what it was forecasting 7 days ago.
Oh, by the way, well look at that, it had the right position for Harvey last night 7 days ago

[KWT]

A 6000 m height at 500 mb over the Atlantic is quite remarkable.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/D5QZFBZ.png

To be clear, are you saying that the Euro may be overdoing the strength of the ridge?

I've noticed over the years that the Euro often overdoes the strength of ridges. I think it is a bias. As you get further out in time, the Euro tends to show weaker ridges.

Yes I think that is probably fair, the GFS equally has a similar bias for overdigging troughs at a similar sort of range, so readng between the lines my guess would be north of ECM and south of GFS, probably a close call to whether or not it becomes a real threat to the east coast/Florida but I wouldn't rule it out yet.

Any WSW bend of any magnitude will really enhance the chances that it misses the weakness to the north, though I'm struggling to believe any bend will be as much as the ECM is doing.

[SFLcane]

Lots of time to watch folks..control ECM

[hohnywx]

00Z Euro animation. Quite an epic track if this verifies. Look at the bend SW east of the Lesser Antilles. Pretty remarkable:

As I mentioned yesterday, the 12z UKMET was also showing a SW bend in that area. I remember reading somewhere that storms which have a SW movement at some point in the MDR region have a much greater chance of eventually making landfall. Just food for thought as we watch this system.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That EPS model spells trouble ridging over the SE anyone buy it?

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow: That EPS model spells trouble ridging over the SE anyone buy it?

At 312 hours this is exactly what I want my model to show...because it normally never ends up verifying.

[sma10]

00Z Euro animation. Quite an epic track if this verifies. Look at the bend SW east of the Lesser Antilles. Pretty remarkable:

Epic would be appropriate. Is there any analog to a storm forming at 15N 25N and coming thru the Leewards at 16-17N? Certainly none that I can name.