ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Good catch by ASCAT of circulation that is almost closed but somewhat elongated.

[Blinhart]

Should be getting some good obs from Cabo Verde.

[msbee]

Thank you Cycloneye . Please keep all of us in the Northern islands informed.

8 AM TWO up to 70%-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area near
the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days over the
eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the
next several days. Heavy rain is possible over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Thank you Cycloneye . Please keep all of us in the Northern islands informed.

8 AM TWO up to 70%-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area near
the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days over the
eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the
next several days. Heavy rain is possible over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

http://i.imgur.com/kZG8l5k.png[/

As always will do that.Let's see what happens with the track of this system down the road.

[KWT]

Yeah its not closed low yet but its getting closer, would be interesting to see what happens when it clears the islands, may help it to develop a closed circulation.

Models are pretty lukewarm afterwards so I expect very modest strengthening and then a leveling off between days 3-5. After that it all depends on the exact track.

[otowntiger]

That high rate cell is exactly where the models have pegged formation to begin.

Models trending weaker with this in the short term, which has kinda been the trend this season, overestimating the eastern part of the basin and underdoing the western part of the basin.

Given it gets decently north towards 20N by 35W it will likely run into some cooler waters.

And at the risk of getting slammed for referencing what this thing will do 3k miles and 12 days down the road (and contradicting myself in an earlier post lol), it may not be that crazy that to speculate on the long term future based on what its doing now: 1. it is forming very far north, 2. It is forming this far east = the system will either do one or both: hit cooler waters limiting development (as KWT mentions above) and be in position to be very easily affected by a weakness in the Bermuda high and/or a trough down the road or just in general turn more poleward due to its early developed intensity. I could be way off as this is just amateur speculation on my part.

[KWT]

And at the risk of getting slammed for referencing what this thing will do 3k miles and 12 days down the road (and contradicting myself in an earlier post lol), it may not be that crazy that to speculate on the long term future based on what its doing now: 1. it is forming very far north, 2. It is forming this far east = the system will either do one or both: hit cooler waters limiting development (as KWT mentions above) and be in position to be very easily affected by a weakness in the Bermuda high and/or a trough down the road or just in general turn more poleward due to its early developed intensity. I could be way off as this is just amateur speculation on my part.

Yeah its still a long way off, so for now I'm focusing on the bend WSW that comes along at 96-144hrs. If that happens I think the odds of a US strike (and maybe even islands strike) will increase drastically. If it marches on still near W/WNW at that point then I think its highly likely to be far enough north that it feels the weakness, even if the GFS is a little overdoing the weakness IMO for the time of year (the type of troughing on the model is something I associate more with mid to late September, doesn't mean it can't happen but knowing the GFS, I'd venture its overdoing things.)

[cycloneye]

Before Bahamas,Hispanola,Florida, the Carolinas etc are those of us who live in the northern Leewards,U.S and BVI Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.Let's watch how the track of this system will unfold in the next few days.We dont have to be in panic on the islands at this time but to be calm and see what happens.

[cycloneye]

At TWC,Dr Greg Postel explained in a short way about the future track of whatever comes out from 93L.In 7-10 days is not clear what will be the final track he said.

[terstorm1012]

I'm hoping for nice big ACE maker that spins harmlessly out to sea. We've got lots of time to watch this one. I just hope it isn't a disaster for someone.

[jlauderdal]

At TWC,Dr Greg Postel explained in a short way about the future track of whatever comes out from 93L.In 7-10 days is not clear what will be the final track he said.

And if he did give us an exact track we wouldn't believe it anyway
.5 days max folks

[SoupBone]

At TWC,Dr Greg Postel explained in a short way about the future track of whatever comes out from 93L.In 7-10 days is not clear what will be the final track he said.

And if he did give us an exact track we wouldn't believe it anyway
.5 days max folks

Because of Harvey, EVERYONE should be well aware of model inconsistency, especially that far out. Harvey took the grand prize on that one.

[AubreyStorm]

The Invest 93L getting that look....

[Happy Pelican]

The Invest 93L getting that look....

It certainly is

[chaser1]

(from this morning's TWO) ".....and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days over the eastern Atlantic...." Um, from the looks of both this a.m.'s ASCAT and continuously improved Satellite presentation, i'd say we're looking closer to about 12-24 hours than 2-3 days.

[northjaxpro]

93L looks absolutely impressive currently. Looks well on its way of being or next cyclone for sure!!

[TheStormExpert]

93L looks absolutely impressive currently. Looks well on its way of being or next cyclone for sure!!

Than what the heck is the GFS on!?

[floridasun78]

we need see islands reporting if reporting ts wind or td wind?

[Hugo1989]

Smell like Potential Cyclone to the next TWO

[cycloneye]

A low pressure area located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands has
become better defined since yesterday. Any significant increase in
the associated thunderstorm activity would result in the formation
of a tropical depression within the next day or two. The low is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. Heavy rain is
possible over portions of the northwestern Cabo Verde Islands
through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.