ATL: IRMA - Models

[KWT]

I tend to put alot of weight behind the ECM ensembles, even if the operational is off on one so to speak ,the ensembles often will paint a fairly reasonable trend, and clearly the trend at the moment is for it to get far enough west to at least require VERY close watching of it.

I will once again be paying close attention to the vorticity charts from the 18z GFS at 00hrs, lets see if its actually got a good grip of the strength of 93L this time round...

[jlauderdal]

It will be interesting to see what the GFS run show this evening.

somehwere close to miami

Yeah I can't remember seeing a Get Florida Storm Run from this new version of the GFS. I think it is due.

i thoight it would take a day or two for a gfs strike on sofla but we might get it on the next run, lets see...all kidding aside, everybody really needs to be prepared for at least 5 days not 3 without power. ideally you are set already but if you wait a few days out from a strike have 5 days at least. Flooding is really tough to prepare for but i see people in houston rushing to the stores standing in lines 3-4 hours two days after losing power, its not a texas thing, we see it in florida too. If you are going to go to the store right after you lose power do it a few days before you might lose power, no sweat you will use the supplies. You must have water at a minimum, you can weeks without food only a few days without water and water is cheap.

The western atlantic and western gulf are looking favored and we are getting to the peak statistically..Floridians know we have two months to go...matthew and wilma were late season big systems. Be smart about it, donate what you can to our friends in Texas, this will take years to recover from and they need help!!

[SouthFLTropics]

Well said jlauderdale

[ace]

Is there a separate thread yet on a potential spin up in the Bay of Campeche next week?

It's being discussed in the global models thread here-
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118543&p=2615572#p2615572

Thanks!

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS 18z very similar through 60 hours...Maybe a little weaker than 12z.

[SouthFLTropics]

A hair faster and maybe a hair SW at 72 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS similar through 108 hours...Maybe a bit south...same strength

[SouthFLTropics]

Slightly south and slightly more organized at 120... Don't look at the BOC unless you want to feel ill

[KWT]

Looks like the GFS again drops a shear wall just far enough south to hit the western side of the system, also pushes quite a wad of dry air around the outer part of the circulation.

[SouthFLTropics]

Pay close attention to what happens with this recurving typhoon as it relates to the future pattern over the CONUS and the eventual steering of 93L as it approaches days 8 to 10.

[Kingarabian]

MDR is a still a graveyard per the 18z GFS.

May make it to the Caribbean on this run if it remains this shallow.

[SouthFLTropics]

Not sure it makes the Caribbean...Might go into the Greater Antilles shredder though.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS 96-144 hours:

[SouthFLTropics]

A hair slower through 150 but not much different

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 156

[TheStormExpert]

Do we even trust the GFS anymore?

Early last month it was all over a random wave showing that it would become our first major and head through the Caribbean and into the Greater Antilles and pose a threat to Florida and the SE U.S. It was depicting extremely favorable conditions which is the total opposite as to what occurred.

Now I know that was the old-GFS but the new-GFS has proven itself just as bad if not worse in similar and different ways.

It's hard to trust a model that goes from major cane to struggling invest in one run.

[Bocadude85]

168 hr 18z GFS starts to deepen 93L.

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow:
Do we even trust the GFS anymore?

Early last month it was all over a random wave showing that it would become our first major and head through the Caribbean and into the Greater Antilles and pose a threat to Florida and the SE U.S. It was depicting extremely favorable conditions which is the total opposite as to what occurred.

Now I know that was the old-GFS but the new-GFS has proven itself just as bad if not worse in similar and different ways.

It's hard to trust a model that goes from major cane to struggling invest in one run.

You have to give it some credibility. It accurately predicted that 92L wouldn't become much of anything, even when most of us including myself thought it was out to lunch. Trust me, I choked down my crow with some ketchup on that. Based on what 92L looked like north of the islands I would have sworn that Florida or the east coast was going to be looking at a serious threat. As of today we are still waiting on 92L/PTC 10 to maybe form.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks awfully troughy off the east coast...This should pull up and out, perhaps affecting Bermuda. That is, unless the trough retrogrades.

[SouthFLTropics]

Much more improved vorticity from 12z