ATL: IRMA - Models

[gatorcane]

GFS has this heading for a weakness between the Bahamas and Bermuda at hour 192.

EDIT hour 198: weakness looks to be closing.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS has this heading for a weakness between the Bahamas and Bermuda at hour 192.

EDIT hour 198: weakness looks to be closing.

The question will be whether it makes it out or not. If the door closes, she's coming west.

[gatorcane]

GFS really ramping this up now north of Puerto Rico hour 210.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS really ramping this up now north of Puerto Rico hour 210.

The trough looks to be lifting north and the ridge spreading westward.

[gatorcane]

GFS and ECMWF in remarkable agreement on 9 day position.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks stuck...and crawling west

[Kingarabian]

GFS and ECMWF in remarkable agreement on 9 day position.

Yup. Just intensity wise where the GFS has a TS and the Euro has a Major hurricane.

[KWT]

Yep trough lifting out and flattening by 216hrs.

This run seems more reasonable than the 12z GFS, whilst it does nothing with it early on it at least keeps it as an identifiable system throughout and it does eventually get into more favourable waters in the SW part of the tropic atlantic basin. Personally I think it will be stronger tha the GFS thinks to start with, though the general trend may not be far off from the mark.

This one is heading towards Florida on this run it seems!

[gatorcane]

looks like it is turning west east of the Bahamas on the 18Z GFS.

[sma10]

GFS and ECMWF in remarkable agreement on 9 day position.

They are also in remarkable agreement on day 10, even more remarkable because they are depicting very different trough positions

[gatorcane]

Day 10 heading slowly west towards Bahamas with a ridge to the north:

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to be just enough ridging to keep it coming west...No trough in site across the CONUS to come save the day as of yet.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow:
Do we even trust the GFS anymore?

Early last month it was all over a random wave showing that it would become our first major and head through the Caribbean and into the Greater Antilles and pose a threat to Florida and the SE U.S. It was depicting extremely favorable conditions which is the total opposite as to what occurred.

Now I know that was the old-GFS but the new-GFS has proven itself just as bad if not worse in similar and different ways.

It's hard to trust a model that goes from major cane to struggling invest in one run.

You have to give it some credibility. It accurately predicted that 92L wouldn't become much of anything, even when most of us including myself thought it was out to lunch. Trust me, I choked down my crow with some ketchup on that. Based on what 92L looked like north of the islands I would have sworn that Florida or the east coast was going to be looking at a serious threat. As of today we are still waiting on 92L/PTC 10 to maybe form.

I guess you're right. I guess I'm just overlooking things, besides it was the first showing Harvey rapidly strengthening in the Western Gulf whereas the Euro had a TS at best!

[gatorcane]

GFS is beelining towards South Florida at 264 hours.

[stormhunter7]

Heading west into GOM.....

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS is beelining towards South Florida at 264 hours.

The trough/ridge pattern is alarming considering the agreement at long range on the globals. Intensity is a crapshoot at this moment. We've got everything from a major (Euro) to a TD/TS (GFS).

[SFLcane]

Oh my...

[sma10]

Okay... So who is going to be the first to say the "A" word?

[gatorcane]

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Strengthening Cat 3 Moving Into Keys and into GOM... Enjoy!