ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Well east of forecast.. and continuing at a pretty good clip now.. considering its previous slow motion

[Dean4Storms]

I think that eastward movement is just that same vortex that's been making a counter-clockwise loop all day going east. I think it'll rotate north shortly. Have to watch storm as a whole and ignore that vortex.

NHC says East....

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

[Steve]

THe 12z Euro nailed the eastwasrd motion of the center and system as a whole. ..

It was good on the track overall from last Tuesday. Probably gets a B for track and straight up D on seeing intensification 3 days before it became a Cat 4.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 42&ypos=35

GFs from Wed gets a C- on track and C on intensity. It had a hurricane but it also missed the boat.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=72

CMC from 12z last Tuesday C on track and C on intensity.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=365

I think NAVGEM deserves a C for both as well - 00z Wed
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=365

NAM gets a D for track but B+ for intensification. This was 00z Wed. Presumably it being farther off the coast led to the intensification.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=365

By 18z NAM had the track right and then a run or two later it hit the low 900s and ultimately 880s which couldn't happen IMHO.

Verification scores from these and other models may differ. But you kind of have to go by what you see.

[artist]

Heard of this possibility over Harris county sheriffs feed earlier today. I hope it doesn't happen-
http://abc13.com/workers-evacuated-from ... e/2355735/
1.5 mile radius around Crosby plant evacuated amid risk of explosion

[Aric Dunn]

THe 12z Euro nailed the eastwasrd motion of the center and system as a whole. ..

It was good on the track overall from last Tuesday. Probably gets a B for track and straight up D on seeing intensification 3 days before it became a Cat 4.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 42&ypos=35

GFs from Wed gets a C- on track and C on intensity. It had a hurricane but it also missed the boat.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=72

CMC from 12z last Tuesday C on track and C on intensity.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=365

I think NAVGEM deserves a C for both as well - 00z Wed
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=365

NAM gets a D for track but B+ for intensification. This was 00z Wed. Presumably it being farther off the coast led to the intensification.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=365

By 18z NAM had the track right and then the low 900s and ultimately 880s which couldn't happen IMHO.

Verification scores from these and other models may differ. But you kind of have to go by what you see.

yeah,
though had it had another 12 hours over water it could have dropped to the low 900's after landfall the environment became incredibly conducive !

[stormreader]

So right now, according to NHC and eyes, Harvey tracking East. Looks even a tad south of due east on sat imagery from NHC. Using visible, cause no convection around center. Pressure has fallen some, now 994. But without convection, can't see a whole lot of intensification. Wonder how far east?

[tolakram]

Beaumont and Port Arthur really under the gun now, hopefully all in those areas is ok.

saved loop

[galaxy401]

Beaumont and Port Arthur really under the gun now, hopefully all in those areas is ok.

Isn't that where Southerngale lives at? That area has been under constant heavy rain the entire day now...

[nutkin517]

Power came back on about 20 mins ago. Still pouring but ditch draining good still... So far.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles/status/902626825502908423




NWS Lake Charles ✔ @NWSLakeCharles
Flash Flood Warning continues for Beaumont TX, Port Arthur TX, Orange TX until 10:15 PM CDT
4:19 PM - Aug 29, 2017 · Beaumont, TX

[tolakram]

ir loop
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-93&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[Casper1]

Have we had an update from SouthernGale recently? Saw that her house was beginning to flood earlier this morning

I talked to my buddy in Port Arthur this afternoon around 1. He is stuck at the Motiva Refinery, which is still operational, because the roads are flooded. He said at that point they had received 37" at the plant. From what I could see the few times I checked radar today, it hasn't stopped raining all day.

[artist]

Beaumont and Port Arthur really under the gun now, hopefully all in those areas is ok.

Isn't that where Southerngale lives at? That area has been under constant heavy rain the entire day now...

I believe Jason's said she had water coming in her house earlier. I think she was going to try to get out.

[KBBOCA]

Still a lot of extreme rainfall with Harvey

 https://twitter.com/MetDavidPaul/status/902709432777416704





David Paul‏ @MetDavidPaul 8m8 minutes ago

Wow, one hour rainfall totals of 4" south of #Beaumont Tuesday evening. #Harvey #TXwx

[Alyono]

Beaumont and Port Arthur really under the gun now, hopefully all in those areas is ok.

saved loop

would not be surprised to see total destruction in some of those areas. After seeing the ocean on I-10 today, this may end up as the Ground Zero

[CrazyC83]

The Sabine Pass region, including Beaumont and Port Arthur, looks like it will be as bad as Houston. We just need to get some media east.

[KBBOCA]

5 day radar loop of Harvey

 https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/902710394250244097

[KBBOCA]

Does anyone remember the rescue total from Katrina? These numbers are staggering... I'm curious how they compare.

 https://twitter.com/AP/status/902704109375160320

[CrazyC83]

Does anyone remember the rescue total from Katrina? These numbers are staggering... I'm curious how they compare.

 https://twitter.com/AP/status/902704109375160320

Probably higher than in Katrina, since there are more than 5 times as many people in flooded areas.

[artist]

7:00 p.m.

The Calcasieu OEP has consolidated all area shelters into one, located at the Lake Charles Civic Center.

Multiple tornadoes have been reported near Crowley and Jennings, and one has been confirmed.

4:30 p.m.

Calcasieu OEP is scheduled to give a briefing on Harvey at 4:30 p.m. We'll be broadcasting it, and you can watch online HERE.

4:00 p.m.

Notes from 3:30 p.m. briefing on TS Harvey:

Dick Gremillion, OHSEP: Made 126 rescues last night.

Dick Gremillion, OHSEP: 350-400 rescues done in east Lake Charles, Iowa and Bell City/Hayes. 126 calls for help.

Shelter to open up at the Civic Center.

http://www.kplctv.com/story/36220435/li ... orm-harvey