ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

If I go out on the Euro to 96 hours and place the cursor at the lat/lon I get similar results.



Again, it could happen, but the odds of there being no break in the ridge have, so far, never happened.

[tolakram]

Of course the one notable exception is Ike ... not sure why this plot didn't pick it up. So after all those pretty plots I have a little less confidence in my research.

[ConvergenceZone]

When is the next set of model runs coming out for this Invest?

[Blinhart]

I just want the same results that we see from all the past storms where this is pretty much a fish. Don't need this to come into the GoM or East Coast. Also I don't like the models showing the Tx/La. Border getting another storm in a week.

[artist]

When is the next set of model runs coming out for this Invest?

I believe they should be coming out soon, except the euro and U.K. met, around 2 am. Think I've got that right.

[Florida90$boy]

Seems like a lot of invest/storms are on a SW course this year how long until we have a good idea if this is a threat or not

[otowntiger]

If I go out on the Euro to 96 hours and place the cursor at the lat/lon I get similar results.



Again, it could happen, but the odds of there being no break in the ridge have, so far, never happened.

Agree- I mentioned this earlier that a storm developing at this latitude has a very strong chance of recurving. In fact climatologically it is way more common that storms approaching east to west from this general location, even at much lower latitudes, to recurve out to sea without affecting the CONUS. It is the rare anamoly that takes a different path- I.e. Andrew.

[USTropics]

If I go out on the Euro to 96 hours and place the cursor at the lat/lon I get similar results.



Again, it could happen, but the odds of there being no break in the ridge have, so far, never happened.

Ike formed after 35W, not sure if your data is for initialization before 35W only.

[Florida90$boy]

If I go out on the Euro to 96 hours and place the cursor at the lat/lon I get similar results.



Again, it could happen, but the odds of there being no break in the ridge have, so far, never happened.

Agree- I mentioned this earlier that a storm developing at this latitude has a very strong chance of recurving. In fact climatologically it is way more common that storms approaching east to west from this general location, even at much lower latitudes, to recurve out to sea without affecting the CONUS. It is the rare anamoly that takes a different path- I.e. Andrew.

Always a 1st time for everything for some folk just hope it isn't that time

[meriland29]

So...this looks to likely be a fish?

[WeatherHoon]

So...this looks to likely be a fish?

Probably, but not definitely.

[ConvergenceZone]

So...this looks to likely be a fish?

I wouldn't say "likely" quite yet, even though storms that form this far out, generally do curve out to sea

[artist]

:froze:

So...this looks to likely be a fish?

I wouldn't say "likely" quite yet, even though storms that form this far out, generally do curve out to sea

If not, let's hope it is similar to 92l/TD10, which never quite made it.

[Florida90$boy]

So...this looks to likely be a fish?

This 1 could go the way of 2005 Emily or 1998 Georges the steering patterns are similar to the 2004-2005 season

[SouthFLTropics]

Stronger at 114 compared to 18z

[SFLcane]

Huge WSW dip once again on the 00z thru 126hrs

[SouthFLTropics]

Huge WSW dip once again on the 00z thru 126hrs

Almost every model I've seen is all in on the WSW dip.

[SouthFLTropics]

132 Hours...The islands need to watch this closely.

[SFLcane]

Here is your WSW dip...

[SouthFLTropics]

144...getting stronger East of the islands.