ATL: IRMA - Models

[SFLcane]

138 much stronger 18z was already opening up

[WeatherEmperor]

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[RL3AO]

While you don't expect something at 20N, 40W to be a threat to the US, something at 15N, 55W (where it has it in 5 days) is certainly something you could see being a US threat.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[SFLcane]

Think will recurve on this run

[ColdMiser123]

GFS is going to pass into the eastern Hebert Box this run.

[SFLcane]

May come very close to PR on this run..

[SouthFLTropics]

Think will recurve on this run

I don't think so...first trough will pull it North some but not enough to lift it out...door will close. Looks like a lot of ridging out there.

[ColdMiser123]

Into the eastern Hebert Box at hour 180.

[RL3AO]

Will see the ridge amplify during the next few time frames as the Rossby wave train rolls along.

[SouthFLTropics]

The track consistency at 180 Hours is great...almost identical to 18z...trough seems shallower with a stronger ridge.

[ConvergenceZone]

I had thought a recurve on this run as well. Guess not. We will see where it ends up. I think Sep 13th was when this model showed a landfall before

[SFLcane]

powerful hurricane now heading in towards the Bahamas..could still recurve

[SouthFLTropics]

The trough is going to start pulling it up but will it be enough to get it out???

[USTropics]

The last 3 runs of the GFS have been remarkably consistent in track and location (obliviously intensity has varied):

[SFLcane]

No way it makes it past 75w

[RL3AO]

A little off topic, but this is a great example of a recurving typhoon near Japan impacting the entire northern hemisphere. The typhoon is near Japan at the start of the loop. You get downstream ridging and then a series of troughs and ridges. The ridge over the Atlantic will near the third of the series (WPac, US west coast, western Atlantic). It may manage to time the amplification of the ridge well enough to make a US threat out of this. Remarkable stuff.

[SouthFLTropics]

The trough is definitely different on this run vs the 18z.

[SFLcane]

yikes its turned W 948mb in the Bahamas..

[AxaltaRacing24]

Despite being ways away, these have been some interesting/entertaining runs today. Been a while since we have seen something like this.