ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

This run makes much more sense actually. I figured that run that was taking this into the Eastern Gulf wouldn't last long

It is all going to come down to timing. Every scenario makes "sense" depending on the trough/ridge's strength.

[AdamFirst]

Expecting more windshield wiping with the other models + future runs...something in common though: looking like a monster hurricane trekking towards the western Atlantic.

[Blinhart]

Close call

HUGO type storm, not good and in 1989 he caused 10 billion in damage, which would be about 21 billion in todays money.

[Blinhart]

We just need a blocking ridge, Bermuda High that blocks this and sends it out to sea.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/902694052411342848




Interesting research that shows a decrease in mid-latitude model skill in the days following the recurving of a WPac typhoon. The model skill may be especially impacted during the next 10 days as this appears to be an unusually energetic and impressive Rossby wave train setting up.

[hurricaneCW]

We're going to be tracking this one for a while. There seems to be a general idea that this does get just east of the Bahamas and what happens after depends on the trough evolution.

Definitely no clear cut OTS track right now, which is surprising given how far north it is already.

[sma10]

It's a bit deflating after these model runs complete because, after you have taken a deep breath, you realize that the error margin at 288 hours is so enormous that talks of trap doors and blocking ridges are worthless. We essentially know nothing. Really gives meaning to the phrase "entertainment value".

[ColdMiser123]

GEFS are aggressive for SE coast/Florida impacts. Also very aggressive on the western GOM system D8-10.

[ace]

[quote="RL3AO"]0z GFS - Archived Model GIFS available in the first post of the thread.

***Thank you!!!!*** I've been looking for information on this!!!!!

[AutoPenalti]

GEFS are aggressive for SE coast/Florida impacts. Also very aggressive on the western GOM system D8-10.

Yikes, another concerning trend. Let's see what the Euro says.

[ColdMiser123]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 16.9N 29.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2017 12 16.9N 29.3W 1009 29
0000UTC 31.08.2017 24 16.7N 31.7W 1008 27
1200UTC 31.08.2017 36 17.3N 33.5W 1007 28
0000UTC 01.09.2017 48 17.8N 35.2W 1006 28
1200UTC 01.09.2017 60 18.7N 37.0W 1007 31
0000UTC 02.09.2017 72 19.5N 39.1W 1007 30
1200UTC 02.09.2017 84 19.7N 41.7W 1006 32
0000UTC 03.09.2017 96 19.0N 43.9W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.09.2017 108 18.1N 45.7W 1000 40
0000UTC 04.09.2017 120 17.8N 47.1W 994 55
1200UTC 04.09.2017 132 18.1N 49.2W 991 56
0000UTC 05.09.2017 144 18.3N 52.4W 986 53

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF rolling in, third run in a row with about the same track and position at 144 hours. Matches up with the GFS as well, although quite a bit more intense on the ECMWF.

[AutoPenalti]

00z ECMWF rolling in, third run in a row with about the same track and position at 144 hours. Matches up with the GFS as well, although quite a bit more intense on the ECMWF.

Euro is slower compared to previous runs.

[drezee]

192hr looks like a trough split coming...no good for us

[AutoPenalti]

Trend from 3 runs. Ridge is definitely stronger. Trough starts to split/retrograde

[brghteys1216]

A bit more south this run so far and much slower

[USTropics]

Trend from 3 runs. Ridge is definitely stronger. Trough starts to split/retrograde

That would be the last 6 runs technically (if you include the 12z runs), hard to do a trend without the high-resolution ECMWF runs. It is slower then the 12z run for sure, but in the overall vicinity and in remarkable agreement with the GFS.

[brghteys1216]

Trend from 3 runs. Ridge is definitely stronger. Trough starts to split/retrograde

That would be the last 6 runs technically (if you include the 12z runs), hard to do a trend without the high-resolution ECMWF runs. It is slower then the 12z run for sure, but in the overall vicinity and in remarkable agreement with the GFS.

Can you recall a storm that threatened the conus where models were in this much agreement this early on?

[sma10]

Very complicated stuff at 216hr. Trough grabs TS in gulf ... does it pull up and out in time to grab Irma or leave behind?

[AutoPenalti]

Trend from 3 runs. Ridge is definitely stronger. Trough starts to split/retrograde

That would be the last 6 runs technically (if you include the 12z runs), hard to do a trend without the high-resolution ECMWF runs. It is slower then the 12z run for sure, but in the overall vicinity and in remarkable agreement with the GFS.

I agree, there's definitely agreement as to the general vicinity, which is rare considering the GFS and Euro tend to think differently after some time.