ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TC signature appears on sat-pic's too have a closed off LCC. Will surely improve
further as the shear lessons.

[USTropics]

93L is looking really good this morning:

[wxman57]

It appears to be a TD/TS to me.

[ouragans]

It appears to be a TD/TS to me.

Same for me. I would bet on upgrade to TD at 11AM

[cycloneye]

Wow,it looks very well organized. I can see the first advisory at 11 AM.

[ouragans]

TCFA has been issued at 06z

[znel52]

93L is looking really good this morning:

Looking healthy this morning. This storm could end up being an ACE monster!

[cycloneye]

8 aM TWO up to 100%/100%,first advisory at 11 AM EDT


Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area a couple
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better
organized overnight, and advisories will likely be initiated at 11
AM EDT on a tropical cyclone. The system is forecast to gradually
intensify and move west-northwestward to westward at about 15 mph
over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[tolakram]

I've been playing around with the hurricane history site again but i figure here is a better place to put these rather than the model thread.

If it wasn't for the persistent trough FLorida and the East coast would be hit on a more regular basis. Nothing magic about it, just a fairly normal weather feature.

Anyway, I picked a 100 mile radius and caught one storm from this area hitting the US, a storm from late August 1893. Hits Georgia.

[tolakram]

West of there captures a few more, all unnamed except for Fran.



This site is too much fun so I'll stop.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

[tolakram]

If I had gone a little further west it would have captured Ike, which is one of the few, or the only, storm to dip back south and then end up striking the US.

[NDG]

Let the CV season begin, dust will not be a problem for this system.

[northjaxpro]

This cyclone is shaping up to be one of these classic, Cape Verde trackers!!

This storm looks very impressive this morning!!

[Siker]

Should see it struggle for a bit in 48-96 hours as it traverses <26°C waters, but if it holds together through those it should be off to the races.

[cycloneye]

Great tweet from Levi about the down the road question.

@TropicalTidbits
Questions for #93L start early, such as what the relative position of this cutoff upper trough is in 3-5 days. Will impact track 40W-60W.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/902869681400360961

[NDG]

West of there captures a few more, all unnamed except for Fran.

http://i.imgur.com/rc2qYg5.png

This site is too much fun so I'll stop.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

IMO, all analog tracks recurving east of Bermuda are no good with this system, Atlantic ridging over and just east of Bermuda will be strong. Question now is how far west will it track. Where exactly does the trough over the eastern US sets itself, over the Great Lakes & MS river valley or exactly on the east coast, will the Atlantic ridge keep retrograding westward along with 93L? A lot of questions to be answered to know exactly if it will recurve off of the US East Coast closer to Bermuda or will it be a threat to the US? Lots of time to watch.

[cycloneye]

TS IRMA at 11 AM

AL, 11, 2017083012, , BEST, 0, 164N, 298W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA

[RL3AO]

Added a poll for the amount of ACE Irma will accumulate.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119077

[znel52]

Here we go. Looks like Irma will be the first legit powerful Cabo Verde storm of the season!

[NDG]

Should see it struggle for a bit in 48-96 hours as it traverses <26°C waters, but if it holds together through those it should be off to the races.

Plenty of warm water ahead of it east of the 40th longitude as long as it keeps tracking below the 20th latitude which both GFS and Euro show.