Really, really, really....slow

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/larry.html

Really becoming a bit confident that this will be a west GOM storm, and most likely a Mexico storm; seems as if this were to be the predictino written in stone based on that ridge that will drop.

To show you the chances of a eastward movement: the only possibility I can see of a east movement is getting caught in one of these troughs, and if Larry was going to get caught, it would have already---after all; it formed from a frontal low.

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, ncweatherwizard.

[Lowpressure]

More and more looking like a sit a spin death in the BOC. If it is going easterly, it better start soon.

[ColdFront77]

The convection associated with Tropical Storm Larry has (at least appeared) to have moved easterly, as the center just about stays in one spot.

Low pressure could develop under different portions of the convection and then there will be more movement at some point.

This is system is still something to watch.

[Rainband]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/larry.html

Really becoming a bit confident that this will be a west GOM storm, and most likely a Mexico storm; seems as if this were to be the predictino written in stone based on that ridge that will drop.

To show you the chances of a eastward movement: the only possibility I can see of a east movement is getting caught in one of these troughs, and if Larry was going to get caught, it would have already---after all; it formed from a frontal low.

If it became a hurricane wouldn't the trofs have more effect due to the vertical height of the storm. I guess I am asking if storms are stronger and vertcally stacked they are influenced more by upper level flows?? Thanks

[ncweatherwizard]

The troughs would have more effect on the storm--if it were far enough north. But Larry will just meander in the southern GOM, and possibly BOC, several hundred miles from the southernmost point that the trough will reach. Even if Larry intensifies, there will be quite a distance between the storm and any passing troughs. Besides, the next trough is much weaker than the one that is along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, and will be passing well north of Larry in 48 hours---at its southernmost point, it may be at the GOM coast. After 60 hours, high pressure is going to dominate the Midwest. Basically the idea here is distance--if Larry were say 150 miles farther north, it would already be moving east-northeast. Hope that answers the question.

[Rainband]

The troughs would have more effect on the storm--if it were far enough north. But Larry will just meander in the southern GOM, and possibly BOC, several hundred miles from the southernmost point that the trough will reach. Even if Larry intensifies, there will be quite a distance between the storm and any passing troughs. Besides, the next trough is much weaker than the one that is along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, and will be passing well north of Larry in 48 hours---at its southernmost point, it may be at the GOM coast. After 60 hours, high pressure is going to dominate the Midwest. Basically the idea here is distance--if Larry were say 150 miles farther north, it would already be moving east-northeast. Hope that answers the question.

It does.. I just heard the trof will dig deeper into the GOM. Thanks for clearing it up BTW I enjoy your posts very informative..keep up the good work