ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion: 8 AM TWO=100%/100%-First advisory at 11 AM EDT

#181 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:51 am

NDG wrote:Plenty of warm water ahead of it east of the 40th longitude as long as it keeps tracking below the 20th latitude which both GFS and Euro show.


The mediocre water temps in the short term will probably be the only thing that keeps this from being a borderline major hurricane in 5 days. After that though...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion: 8 AM TWO=100%/100%-First advisory at 11 AM EDT

#182 Postby Siker » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:51 am

NDG wrote:
Siker wrote:Should see it struggle for a bit in 48-96 hours as it traverses <26°C waters, but if it holds together through those it should be off to the races.


Plenty of warm water ahead of it east of the 40th longitude as long as it keeps tracking below the 20th latitude which both GFS and Euro show.

Image


You're right, they were cooler yesterday when I checked.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory at 11 AM EDT

#183 Postby ouragans » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:53 am

cycloneye wrote:TS IRMA at 11 AM

AL, 11, 2017083012, , BEST, 0, 164N, 298W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA

This skips the question on wether it would be classified as TD10 or 11 :D While it would have been 11
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#184 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:57 am

one thing to keep in mind. The models that make this stronger in the next week or so have this losing more latitude due to stronger ridging higher up in the atmosphere at 500MB and above. So this is a case that stronger does not mean it will gain more latitude, just the opposite.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:59 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#185 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:57 am

Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#186 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:04 am

SFLcane wrote:Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?


Off the top of my head I don't think there has been. But of course that is all relative based on recorded history. We don't know what has happened beyond that. Up until last week we had never heard of 50 plus inches of rain falling on Houston in a short time either...yet here we are still watching that unfold.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#187 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:05 am

Hands down, the best looking CV system of the season thus far. In post-season analysis, it is likely they revise the time of genesis to sometime last night/yesterday. Clearly a TS at this point. There is some dry air lurking to the north, but with the low vertical wind shear magnitudes, the dry air should not be as bad of a problem as past waves. As others have pointed out, SSTs are relatively marginal over next 48-72 h, but after that we could see some quick intensification. SHIPS keeps the shear below 8 kt for the next 120 h. That's quite rare for an ATL TC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#188 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:07 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?


Off the top of my head I don't think there has been. But of course that is all relative based on recorded history. We don't know what has happened beyond that. Up until last week we had never heard of 50 plus inches of rain falling on Houston in a short time either...yet here we are still watching that unfold.


I think i will side with climo on this for now and bet on this finding an escape alley sooner rather then later we shall see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#189 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:09 am

So excited to be tracking the first real CV threat since Irene of 2011. Let the games begin :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#190 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:12 am

SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?


Off the top of my head I don't think there has been. But of course that is all relative based on recorded history. We don't know what has happened beyond that. Up until last week we had never heard of 50 plus inches of rain falling on Houston in a short time either...yet here we are still watching that unfold.


I think i will side with climo on this for now and bet on this finding an escape alley sooner rather then later we shall see.


Something to think about.. If this gets pushed south like the Euro is showing then it will pass through or near the Herbert Box. Climo is pretty high on chances for a US hit when a system passes through that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory at 11 AM EDT

#191 Postby artist » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:16 am

cycloneye wrote:TS IRMA at 11 AM

AL, 11, 2017083012, , BEST, 0, 164N, 298W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA

Wow, that was quick.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#192 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:17 am

Formation location has no bearing on future destination, especially when all models are showing the WSW dip across the Atlantic. That basically will press the reset button on this system. How far north it is when it passes 50W will be a good test to then start looking at potential CONUS impacts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#193 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:27 am

Irma looks Very impressive

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion:First advisory on Irma at 11 AM EDT

#194 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:47 am

Irma's satellite presentation continues to improve rather quickly. The 13z METEOSAT image shows clear banding structure developing. I'm wondering if short term over performance will allow it to gain a little more latitude before the ridge builds in.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion:First advisory on Irma at 11 AM EDT

#195 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:16 am

One of the first storms to form this year without an MLC blob that covers a sloppy, elongated LLC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion:First advisory on Tropical Storm Irma at 11 AM EDT

#196 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:36 am

SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Question- to tired to look.. has there been a classified tc at this latitude and managed to impact the US?


Off the top of my head I don't think there has been. But of course that is all relative based on recorded history. We don't know what has happened beyond that. Up until last week we had never heard of 50 plus inches of rain falling on Houston in a short time either...yet here we are still watching that unfold.


I think i will side with climo on this for now and bet on this finding an escape alley sooner rather then later we shall see.


This is all well and good, but what does climatology say about a system at 20N 40W moving southwesterly? Not much of a sample size to compare to I'm afraid
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#197 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 30.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#198 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:53 am

Wow, they went right to 50!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#199 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:53 am

Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far
eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday,
with many curved bands around the center. ASCAT data showed peak
winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the
circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the
instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Global models
indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for
strengthening of Irma during the next several days. However, Irma
will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier
mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate.
The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the
statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM. At the end
of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the
very conducive environment shown in most of the global models
emerges.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11. A ridge over the eastern
Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days.
Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause
the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest.
The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the
regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on
this cycle. Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern
side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction
as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 16.4N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 16.7N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 17.3N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.9N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 37.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 41.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 17.7N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 17.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#200 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:54 am

Wow hurricane near the capeverdes lol it would be unreal this makes the long trek.
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