93L/Irma Total ACE Poll

[RL3AO]

Poll will remain open for 48 hours.

[Ntxw]

I actually prefer 25-35 range which is within range of similar hurricanes in such a track. Took the over with 30-39

[RL3AO]

My back of envelope calculation with a hurricane in 5 days, a cat 3 north of the islands, and a weak hurricane in 15 days got me 38. Since I think it'll probably be stronger (maybe quite a bit), I took the 40 to 50 range. A 125 kt storm for 3 days is almost 20 ACE.

[bg1]

Most storms don't reach 50. Matthew did last year but it was a major for an unbelievable amount of time. Also, there'll probably be something to keep this in check for a while. I'll go with ACE in the 40s for now.

[1900hurricane]

I as well am thinking just clipping over 40*10**4 kt**2. There is certainly big number potential here with a likely long-track major hurricane. Irma will probably be the most prolific Cape Verde hurricane since Igor '10.

[weathaguyry]

I'm going with 30-40, Irma seems to be at a fairly high latitude, so I dont believe it will affect the CONUS, but may possibly affect Bermuda, the storm looks nice already, and doesn't have to contend with the SAL or shear that earlier storms had to, so it's a good bet that this will become a major, just a complete opinion though

[Kazmit]

I went with 30-40, although I think that may end up being conservative.

[chaser1]

50+ "bad moon rising"

[Kingarabian]

EPS has shifted considerably south west and tracks it over some of the Caribbean islands. They do have Irma as a strong cane but any further south deviations and it'll be over Hispaniola. Actually a complicated ACE forecast...

[NDG]

I went very conservative, 30-40.

[1900hurricane]

The southwestward dip before reaching 20ºN should help keep Irma over sufficiently warm waters for a long time, and it actually reminds me somewhat of the all-time ACE champion, Ioke '06. It's probably a safe assumption that we aren't going to challenge Ioke's ~85 units of ACE, but the system's overall longevity at high intensity ceiling is pretty up there. It's just a question of how much is realized.

[RL3AO]

The southwestward dip before reaching 20ºN should help keep Irma over sufficiently warm waters for a long time, and it actually reminds me somewhat of the all-time ACE champion, Ioke '06. It's probably a safe assumption that we aren't going to challenge Ioke's ~85 units of ACE, but the system's overall longevity at high intensity ceiling is pretty up there. It's just a question of how much is realized.

I'm starting to wonder if we can get 10 days of a major hurricane out of this. Starting to look like it could be one in 2 or 3 days.

[1900hurricane]

The southwestward dip before reaching 20ºN should help keep Irma over sufficiently warm waters for a long time, and it actually reminds me somewhat of the all-time ACE champion, Ioke '06. It's probably a safe assumption that we aren't going to challenge Ioke's ~85 units of ACE, but the system's overall longevity at high intensity ceiling is pretty up there. It's just a question of how much is realized.

I'm starting to wonder if we can get 10 days of a major hurricane out of this. Starting to look like it could be one in 2 or 3 days.

That would be pretty crazy, Ivan '04 is the only other storm that I am aware of aside from the aforementioned Ioke to have pulled that off since 1970. That would probably over 60 units easy, even if Irma never reaches category 5 intensity like the other two.

[RL3AO]

And we're underway.

Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Name System ACE Max Intensity
------------------ ------------ ---------------
Arlene (01L) [TCR] 0.81 45
Bret (02L) 0.6875 40
Cindy (03L) 1.55 50
Don (05L) 0.6875 40
Emily (06L) 0.405 45
Franklin (07L) 3.685 75
Gert (08L) 7.2675 90
Harvey (09L) 11.1225 115
Irma (11L) 0.7075 55

Season Total 26.9225

[RL3AO]

1900, do you happen to know the top 5 or 10 for consecutive days as a hurricane or major hurricane in the Atlantic?

[1900hurricane]

1900, do you happen to know the top 5 or 10 for consecutive days as a hurricane or major hurricane in the Atlantic?

I haven't done much before 1970, so nothing I have right now is all-encompassing, but I do have some ideas of which storms were particularly prolific. Ivan '04 spent 10 days as a major hurricane, 9 of which were consecutive, and is the highest since 1970. Isabel '03 and Luis '95 are the next two up with 8 major hurricane days, all consecutive. Edouard '96, Matthew '16, and Fabian '03 round out the systems with MH days >=7, with 7.75, 7.5 and 7.25, respectively and all consecutively. As far as overall, I'd probably look towards 1893 Charleston and 1899 San Ciriaco, both of which have ridiculously long consecutive time spent at MH intensity.

I'm not quite as confident about the basic hurricane intensity systems, but I would probably start with the same group and also look at some of the really big ACE systems. I know Francis '80 and Carrie '57 accumulated huge hurricane days (12.25 and 17.75, respectively), and I think they were consecutive too. Probably Donna '60 too. There are probably more that I missed too, but that's a good start. (Edit: also Ginger '71. I think I remember from some Noru discussion that Ginger was the record holder here.)

[Blinhart]

I am going with the top 60+, I can see this being a Cat 5 for at least 3 days and a major for way more than 10 days, I wouldn't be surprised to see this top Ioke. You are talking about a system that is about to become a Hurricane soon, and have at least a week (possibly 12 days) before any type of land interaction. And if he goes into the Caribbean I could see it do some crazy stuff and not make any major land interaction say for another week after going through the islands, this could be a very scary situation.

[hurricanehunter69]

Whoa....And I thought I was aggressive. Out of respect for the Ventrice forecast, the NHC forecast ( albeit conservative ), possible land interaction, and a US hit (as opposed to an extended trip thru the subtropics ). I went with 25 to 30

[Blinhart]

Just hoping not a Allen type of track

[KWT]

Whoa....And I thought I was aggressive. Out of respect for the Ventrice forecast, the NHC forecast ( albeit conservative ), possible land interaction, and a US hit (as opposed to an extended trip thru the subtropics ). I went with 25 to 30

That sounds very low for a system that has formed this far east. To give an idea, even if it stayed at 60kts for the rest of its life, its quite probable this gets upto 20 units of ACE...and that with it never becoming a hurricane, which is looking mighty unlikey obviously.

My guess based on historical track would be between 45-60, land interaction could possibly lower that a little and a far NE track compared to what is expected may drop it down, but even a system like Fabian which is about as far east as is likely to get managed around 40-45 units.

Also, quite possible if it does NOT recurve that this is the first time in history this forum manages to break 1000 cumulative pages for a storm, Matthew came close as did Ike in the past but neither managed it.