ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

30 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

48 Hours...Almost identical location as 06z

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
GFS vortex-averaged sounding for #Irma this evening shows favorable environment. Essentially no shear, anomalously high moisture content.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/902919205363871744

[SouthFLTropics]

60 Hours...Maybe a little faster forward speed than 06z

[forecasterjack]

Just catching up... Based on WPAC pattern, I think this could recurve, but not until after 70W once it interacts with E US trough. Too early to figure out all the little shortwaves in that trough that will determine eventual track. But once you're in the 75-80W range, you're one well placed vortmax away from a negatively tilted trough and, well, trouble. Again, WAY too early to speculate on shortwave behavior. For now, ensembles are locked and loaded with WNW then WSW then WNW motion. After that, all bets are off. We'll see what 12Z guidance does, but until I see a strong and consistent weakening of the CATL ridge on ensemble (not OP) guidance, I think this is very dangerous for the US.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Much stronger through HR60...19mb drop compared to 06Z.

[meriland29]

Looks like a typical fish with a great opening to recurve out to ssea.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Also somewhat S and W thru HR66...gotta go to class.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like a typical fish with a great opening to recurve out to ssea.

Not yet. Look at that steering

[SouthFLTropics]

78 Hours

[SouthFLTropics]

SW to WSW motion at hour 96

[sma10]

Key upper trough in Central Atlantic slightly further West than 6Z ... but still much closer to Irma than what Euro depicts

[txwatcher91]

GFS is trending towards the Euro through hour 96 with a MUCH stronger HP to the north building in and more WSW movement, maybe even SW.

[SouthFLTropics]

Lot's of ridging out there

[SouthFLTropics]

Of note...The eastward progression of the recurving WPAC typhoon is not near as fast as 06z. It has it almost 4 degrees further west on this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

108 Hours

[TheStormExpert]

Is that an ULL to the NW of Irma? If so wouldn't that likely help to weaken the ridge allowing for a escape route OTS?

[forecasterjack]

Is that an ULL to the NW of Irma? If so wouldn't that likely help to weaken the ridge allowing for a escape route OTS?

It could weaken the ridge a little bit, but it would need to weaken it a lot more for Irma to notice. That's a big ridge.

[SouthFLTropics]

Location almost identical to 06z at 120 hours.

[sma10]

Is that an ULL to the NW of Irma? If so wouldn't that likely help to weaken the ridge allowing for a escape route OTS?

That Upper trough is the key player in this entire game.

Euro has it much further west than GFS