ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Can't remember the last time I saw a 915 from this model. Matthew?

[artist]

Just here to remind you that y'all are now speculating at 200+ hour model forecasts. It's not like those have ever been wrong before.... Oh wait.

The models can and will change between now and then. No need to get worried about anything yet.

The islands might be

[SouthFLTropics]

The CONUS isn't out of the woods yet...The trough is washing out.

[HurricaneEric]

The 12z Euro should be telling. I'm hoping that somehow the Euro gives into this solution and that Irma ends up going OTS, but I almost expect (with the way models have disagreed this year) that the Euro will double-down on its solution of a more south and west track... we'll see.

How many models are in the GFS camp? How many with the Euro/UKMet? That will be telling.

EDIT: OTS not accurate as Bermuda might be in play with a 915mb monster cane just south of them in this GFS run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Canadian at end of run

[AxaltaRacing24]

Close call for Bermuda as the monster is just SW

[AutoPenalti]

The CONUS isn't out of the woods yet...The trough is washing out.

That ridge is about to tell us what happens.

[blp]

I agree with this tweet.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/902929635276718082

[sma10]

Just here to remind you that y'all are now speculating at 200+ hour model forecasts. It's not like those have ever been wrong before.... Oh wait.

The models can and will change between now and then. No need to get worried about anything yet.

My favorite part of the whole run, is how it depicts a completely different picture ... yet still ends up with an identical track for Irma.

[hohnywx]

The 12z Euro should be telling. I'm hoping that somehow the Euro gives into this solution and that Irma ends up going OTS, but I almost expect (with the way models have disagreed this year) that the Euro will double-down on its solution of a more south and west track... we'll see.

How many models are in the GFS camp? How many with the Euro/UKMet? That will be telling.

We are 200+ hours away from the storm being near the US. Nothing will be telling.

[Langinbang187]

GFS is drunk.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow

[sma10]

Wow

Surf's Up!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Parallel to Bermuda just before they get slammed by the eastern side of Irma before it re-curves.

[HurricaneEric]

The 12z Euro should be telling. I'm hoping that somehow the Euro gives into this solution and that Irma ends up going OTS, but I almost expect (with the way models have disagreed this year) that the Euro will double-down on its solution of a more south and west track... we'll see.

How many models are in the GFS camp? How many with the Euro/UKMet? That will be telling.

We are 200+ hours away from the storm being near the US. Nothing will be telling.

I apologize for my poor wording. I meant "interesting" in terms of the battle between models. I agree that nothing is telling of where it'll go past the medium-range.

[GCANE]

Run-to-run, at the same time slot, STR / Azore High keeps building.
Not a good thing.

[KWT]

Certainly becomes a powerful hurricane on the 12z that is for sure.

Upper steering really flattens out around 240hrs as the trough and its tropical extension decay away, leaving weak steering currents.

Anyway I'll keep a close on how far WSW it gets first, the models don't tend to do too well on WSW diving storms take a look back at both Katrina and Ike to see that the models had to keep shifting west due to under-estimating such a set-up..

[SouthFLTropics]

It's not every day you see those kind of numbers in that part of the Atlantic. One thing all the models agree on is that Irma will be an ACE monster.

[northjaxpro]

You know, you've gotta laugh. Who knows - perhaps GFS is spot on. But come on - look at its setup flip flop: at 204 hours shows driving trough into Florida panhandle. Just 6 hrs ago, the 6Z at the exact same time period showed a ridge building over Florida and the trough completely lifting out of New England. Like I say - maybe the GFS ends up completely correct, but it would be by accident.

The only way that trough digs that far into Florida is due to the tropical spin up in the GOM. If that doesn't happen (for Texas and Louisiana's sake pray to God it doesn't) then there will be more ridging.

Yes you are right
A system developing in the Western GOM absolutely makes me sick to even think about with the current situation ongoing in TX and SW LA.

But, a developing cyclone in the GOM would indeed prove vital in eroding the ridge down the road. That is some irony . the worst possible scenario imaginable for South Texas and Louisiana may help spare the U.S.East Coast with Irma. We just have to watch how all this evolves in the days to come.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Bermuda barely misses the eye as it moves up and out to sea