ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like a high-altitude core is trying to develop.
Impressive for this part of the pond.

[SouthDadeFish]

Irma looks really good this afternoon, with symmetric convection about the center and numerous bands evident. As the GFS suggests, it might try to make a quick run at hurricane status:

[GCANE]

Picking up steam straight west.

[p1nheadlarry]

LarryWx

Gloria made a landfall in NC

[rickybobby]

According to Wesh 2 at noon it will recurve and not a threat to the us.

[hohnywx]

According to Wesh 2 at noon it will recurve and not a threat to the us.

Oh, OK. Time to shut down the thread. Thank you.

Seriously though, no one knows what is going to happen. Posts like these are not necessary.

[CourierPR]

According to Wesh 2 at noon it will recurve and not a threat to the us.

Oh, OK. Time to shut down the thread. Thank you.

Seriously though, no one knows what is going to happen. Posts like these are not necessary.

Last season the local mets in So Fla had Matthew curving out to sea. When they come on early in the game with the recurve call, watch out!

[Orlando]

"Too early to tell" according to Brian on WFTV. He's talking about whether it will impact our area.

[txwatcher91]

According to Wesh 2 at noon it will recurve and not a threat to the us.

Oh, OK. Time to shut down the thread. Thank you.

Seriously though, no one knows what is going to happen. Posts like these are not necessary.

Last season the local mets in So Fla had Matthew curving out to sea. When they come on early in the game with the recurve call, watch out!

And it didn't. It scraped the FL coast and brought tremendous flooding damage to those of us in NC.

[weathaguyry]

It is definitely way too early to tell where this will go, the most immediate threat would potentially be the Northern Islands, but beyond that it is unknown what this will do.

[txwatcher91]

I agree with your posts, but current thinking with regards to a potential CONUS threat is based on the Euro more than 10 days out... We are one Euro 12z curving OTS away from all this hype evaporating... JMHO of course and I will be tracking either way...

Within 5 days there is a fairly strong consensus of a WSW to SW jog, how much and for how long remains to be seen thought but out of all the models inside 5 days I would trust the Euro and its ensembles more than the GFS/CMC. Now that this is a developed system the GFS doesn't suddenly go "poof" with it like it did prior to it being declared a TC.

[KWT]

Well I did think it was a TD earlier today, but it has improved markedly in the last 6hrs in terms of its presentation, I was quite taken aback by it.

Could well be a hurricane within 24hrs providing it doesn't stray too far north.

As others have said, very few storms this far east make it...BUT maybe a better idea to see how many storms make it from 18N and 55W as that is in the ballpark of where it will be.

A recurve is more likely, but I think there is high uncertainty, especially as part of the reason GFS recurves is due to a TC forming in the Gulf and effectively keeping that weakness open long enough for Irma to follow through the escape door. Wouldn't totally count on that happening.

[fci]

Here is my beef with climatology. It is a useful tool, but just that; a tool. It is not absolute. Just because something is rare in cimo terms, does not mean that it will be extremely unlikely for this storm. Every storm, its steering patterns, etc, must be taken as an individual unit, with climo one of many considerations.

Very astute comment.
Lacking any formal training and because I have followed storms since the mid 1960's; I tend to default to climatology and am generally correct.
But, as many others have said; climatology says no one gets 50 inches of rain and a storm strike the coast, go inland 100 miles or so and then comes back out offshore again.
The point that climatology from where Irma is supposed to bend WSW or SW to; should be consulted.
So far, this is yet another strange track.....

[Hurricane Andrew]

Here is my beef with climatology. It is a useful tool, but just that; a tool. It is not absolute. Just because something is rare in cimo terms, does not mean that it will be extremely unlikely for this storm. Every storm, its steering patterns, etc, must be taken as an individual unit, with climo one of many considerations.

Very astute comment.
Lacking any formal training and because I have followed storms since the mid 1960's; I tend to default to climatology and am generally correct.
But, as many others have said; climatology says no one gets 50 inches of rain and a storm strike the coast, go inland 100 miles or so and then comes back out offshore again.
The point that climatology from where Irma is supposed to bend WSW or SW to; should be consulted.
So far, this is yet another strange track.....

Indeed. The thing is, at one point, every single unique storm track has been different from recorded climo...just food for thought. As you said, Harvey already broke numerous "regular rules", and he proves that expecting that the possible is impossible because of statistical averages can be very, very dangerous.

[cycloneye]

To have it clear about the "out to sea" words,if what one model has pans out,Bermuda would be in the crosshairs.Is better to say it recurves from the U.S.

[chaser1]

According to Wesh 2 at noon it will recurve and not a threat to the us.

Oh, OK. Time to shut down the thread. Thank you.

Seriously though, no one knows what is going to happen. Posts like these are not necessary.

I don't mind the posts, when simply quoting a specific source..... but the WESH statement itself by whoever actually made it - is seemingly MORONIC. Makes me question whether it was taken a little bit out of context. Hard to believe that an on-air Met could possibly be that stupid (could far easier make sense of someone stating "... but its far to our east and there's still plenty of time for track to potentially recurve out to sea)

[GCANE]

If this storm was predicted to stay weak, then that definitely increases the chance of a US landfall. Would love to see this crank up to a Cat 5 and curve East of Bermuda. Otherwise, I think Bermuda and the Northern Islands really need to keep an eye on this

In most cases yeah, however the ridging appears as though its going to be quite strong and it might get farther south than the EUro despite being a strong hurricane.

That is the one thing that has been glaring at me.
Run-to-run, the models keep building the ridging.

[Aric Dunn]

I can think of one storm that baffled models and forecasters a like that dove sw .. though ike made it much farther than irma will before it bends to the SW..

The patterns that exists with this type of set up often lead to threats to the islands and the mainland.

Ike was supposed to recurve pretty quick after it started moving SW but instead it kept moving SW and hit cuba...
let try and keep our speculation down to 3 days at a time, please..

right now anywhere from the central islands to texas and the NE are in play.. but lets just focus on the islands first..

[KWT]

I can think of one storm that baffled models and forecasters a like that dove sw .. though ike made it much farther than irma will before it bends to the SW..

The patterns that exists with this type of set up often lead to threats to the islands and the mainland.

Ike was supposed to recurve pretty quick after it started moving SW but instead it kept moving SW and hit cuba...
let try and keep our speculation down to 3 days at a time, please..

right now anywhere from the central islands to texas and the NE are in play.. but lets just focus on the islands first..

Yeah Ike was just like this in many ways, long tracking CV storm that bent WSW.

Worth remembering Ike also was nearly at 25N when it bent WSW.

Katrina also went way more WSW than any models were predicting when it began its dive.

[Ken711]

I wonder if this could be a replay of Isabel's track, hope not.