ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Glad the models are showing it as a fish storm. Why do people think it could be a category 5 storm?

The GFS had it sit over Bermuda for two days as a cat 4/5. HOW IS THIS A FISH?

[Aric Dunn]

There is definitely an eye feature beginning to become more clear. likely a hurricane by 11pm

[AxaltaRacing24]

Glad the models are showing it as a fish storm. Why do people think it could be a category 5 storm?

The environment is favorable for intensification throughout the entire path. And not every model shows a fish. The GFS destroys Bermuda and EURO/UK show Bahamas/island impacts. Just because the CONUS does not get hit doesn't mean it's a fish.

[marionstorm]

Thanks guys. Didn't know about the forecast with Bermuda I was just going off twitters.

[txwatcher91]

Glad the models are showing it as a fish storm. Why do people think it could be a category 5 storm?

Models are not all showing a fish storm; in fact all of them seem to impact land whether it is Bermuda, the islands or the US. It has plenty of time over water, a favorable environment with little to no shear. Once this gets into warmer water it really won't have anything to hinder it except eyewall replacement cycles, for the next 5-7 days at least. Once a hurricane is well established it also is less affected by shear/dry air as well.

[Janie2006]

AFDs for all WFOs are free to the public, and coastal WFOs are cèrtainly watching Irma and clearly say so in the discussions. However, for very good reasons they aren't alarmist. It's a long way out and there will be plenty of changes in modeled direction and strength.

To be honest, I'm rather doubtful that a significant percentage of the population can locate their town on a radar or determine what's ahead based on radar presentation, and I'm not trying to be funny, it's a fact. Imagine what would happen if one started ringing alarm bells about Irma *now*. I shudder to think.

[RL3AO]

Remarkable structure. Could easily see this as a hurricane tomorrow.

[Janie2006]

She's looking very healthy this afternoon. Has the potential to be a classic long-track CV 'cane.

[Gustywind]

I do not like that track! Thanks for keeping us informed though, Luis

Me too

[Aric Dunn]

Remarkable structure. Could easily see this as a hurricane tomorrow.

I would wager sooner rather than later.. but the NHC will wait until it has a full eye and CDO and it looks like a major..

[Aric Dunn]

Euro trending farther south a west motion again. no wnw turn near the islands.. im leaning that way given the set up.

and quite abit faster..

[Hurricane Andrew]

Cycloneye, you are not going to like this EURO run...yikes.

[Aric Dunn]

Cycloneye, you are not going to like this EURO run...yikes.

its taking on a classic florida or florida straights track once it resumes a wnw track..

[Gustywind]

Euro trending farther south a west motion again. no wnw turn near the islands.. im leaning that way given the set up.

Waouw that should mean that a very POWERFULL ridge over the eastern may steer Irma westward even wsw towards the Leewards or why the northern Windwards? Hope not because of we have a lot of time to see what could happens

[Michele B]

Looks good on satellite, most likely will become a hurricane within 24-36 hours as the SST's of 26C will be enough for a minimal cane along with the good UL environment. This one could easily become our first cat 5 of the year... question is where it goes long term. The "I" storms seem to have a tendency of being particularly nasty for whatever reason.

Maybe cause they have to wait so long to get "borned?"

[Blinhart]

Blinhart opined "I'm sorry to disagree with you, with what the models are showing, they are letting people know ahead of time that they need to be vigilant and not be caught by surprise."

"Cry Wolf Syndrome" is an important factor that the real hurricane forecasters, the ones that bear the weight of responsibility (NHC guys) are very cognisant of. They would never state, based on 12+ day computer progs that "all residents of the east coast" should pay close attention to future advisories of Hurricane Ziggy". Five days out they might start to do this; and the 5-day cone implies this strongly when portions of it reaches a coastline.

Forecasters with the weight of, or the feeling of responsibility, make it clear repeatedly, that anytime during the hurricane season, especially the heart of the season, that the public should be vigilant of every tropical entity.

When they, as the commercial weather guy has done, overly raise anxieties time after time, and the 12 day out "threat" does not materialize, the Cry Wolf Syndrome sets in. THEN when a hurricane warning is actually issued for a true threat, a higher % of the public does not take heed. One example being the people who drowned, or almost drowned during IKE, that stayed on those barrier islands east of Galveston.

When a true threat occurs, 3 days out or less, then it is responsible to state (as Neil Frank did), "There really is a wolf out there!"

Anyways, or course you have a right to disagree; that's what de bait is all about. And since your post, the GFS, that had Irma crossing the Florida Keys, has shifted eastward, then further eastward to near Bermuda. But, of course, as usually happens over time, the forecast track will shift back west again.

Well TWC is also telling people to keep an eye on this.

[txwatcher91]

I've found over the years that when Euro/UK are in strong agreement through 120 that you can almost always depend on them to be right vs the GFS/CMC solutions. With a strong ridge like that, a faster motion and WSW movement into the islands looks fairly likely. If I were in the islands, PR area I would be on high alert right now, especially if the Euro ensembles come in similar to the 00z ones.

[Aric Dunn]

notice in the euro run that system in the guld being pushed ese.. very strong ridge behind that trough on east coast while IRMA is near DR.. if it misses the trough florida into gulf ?

[Siker]

Meager convection at the moment but fantastic structure. DMAX could prove very eventful, hurricane in the next 36 hours seems likely.

[Michele B]

I can think of one storm that baffled models and forecasters a like that dove sw .. though ike made it much farther than irma will before it bends to the SW..

The patterns that exists with this type of set up often lead to threats to the islands and the mainland.

Ike was supposed to recurve pretty quick after it started moving SW but instead it kept moving SW and hit cuba...
let try and keep our speculation down to 3 days at a time, please..

right now anywhere from the central islands to texas and the NE are in play.. but lets just focus on the islands first..

Yeah Ike was just like this in many ways, long tracking CV storm that bent WSW.

Worth remembering Ike also was nearly at 25N when it bent WSW.

Katrina also went way more WSW than any models were predicting when it began its dive.

A key thing to watch for is how far north it moves before the turn.. if it stays more westerly the wsw to sw motion might be farther south. meaning both ridges the one sterring it now and the much stronger one near the islands end up being stronger.

also if this becomes a major hurricane while moving wsw to sw around that second ridge then we run the risk of it pumping up that ridge and keeping more of a WSW to W motion longer. similar to the what the EURO is doing .. especially the euro yesterday that drove it through the greater antilies.

OMG! I hope this wouldn't mean a track into GoM and over to TX again?!?!?!?!