ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#701 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:52 pm

chris_fit wrote:
Image



Compare to the GFS at the same time. The large scale pattern very similar. That means everything that matters occurs in the next seven days. What that "thing" will be is the upper low currently located near 25N, 45W.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#702 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:52 pm

sma10 wrote:Gulf bound i think


No way...Not with that trough over the US east coast.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#703 Postby Raebie » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:53 pm

sma10 wrote:Gulf bound i think


Based on what?
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#704 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:54 pm

Thats so close on the 12z ECM at 216hrs, trough is lifting and weakening (looks like it may form a cutoff low?) but the ridge is aso weakening, so steering currents are going to weaken one way or the other.

I don't think the trough is strong enough or sharp enough to life Irma out on this run, well not enough to avoid land anyway. We will see...
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#705 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:54 pm

The way I see the Euro is that this may be a scraper from Florida to North Carolina
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#706 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:55 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
sma10 wrote:Gulf bound i think


No way...Not with that trough over the US east coast.


All in the timing, trough appears to be lifting quickly
0 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#707 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:55 pm

It misses the connection verbatim.
0 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#708 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:56 pm

Too far out but slowing it down, indicating a turn.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#709 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:57 pm

And next time on "As the Euro Turns"...What will happen beyond 240 hours!!!

Image
2 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#710 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:57 pm

That's a lot of Blue....

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#711 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:57 pm

tolakram wrote:Too far out but slowing it down, indicating a turn.

Image


Verbatim, there is no turn from hour 234 to 240.

Looks like it is trying to interact with the GOM system.
0 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#712 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:57 pm

Ouch...That was on a beeline for Florida
0 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#713 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:58 pm

It should recurve?
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#714 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:58 pm

10 days out - this is all fantasy but trough does appear to be lifting out at 10 days.
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#715 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:59 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
tolakram wrote:Too far out but slowing it down, indicating a turn.

Image


Verbatim, there is no turn from hour 234 to 240.

Looks like it is trying to interact with the GOM system.

Um... that's catastrophic.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#716 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:59 pm

SFLcane wrote:Ouch...That was on a beeline for Florida


I don't see how it doesn't lift out without any ridging there at hour 240. It's possible that it goes into a weak steering environment and slows to a crawl. That wouldn't be good because the ridge will build back in and it will be headed west then.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#717 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:59 pm

Who knows? This looks like a stall to me
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#718 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:00 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:It should recurve?
Image

That actually looks like a stall in the Bahamas
0 likes   

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#719 Postby meriland29 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:00 pm

That looks like a solid high end cat 5, look at that monster! No wonder its name is 'Irma'
0 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#720 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:00 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:
tolakram wrote:Too far out but slowing it down, indicating a turn.

Image


Verbatim, there is no turn from hour 234 to 240.

Looks like it is trying to interact with the GOM system.

Um... that's catastrophic.

What a cliffhanger.... It either heads to the GOM and interacts with Jose, lifts out, or devastates Florida.
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Stormybajan and 14 guests