ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Been watching these forums for awhile. I've been in a few minor hurricanes in FL and now in PA. Sandy was nasty here in Lehigh but I know it was worse elsewhere. It's got me fascinated with watching these storms now. Hoping it's a fish storm myself.

Sandy was a super rare trajectory right? Most PA storms are typically brushing the coast or maybe coming up from the Carolinas and weakening?

Yes, Sandy took a very rare path. She was atypical among tropical systems affecting this part of the world.

Thanks for confirming. I have got a bit obsessed with these things and trying to learn. I was watching Jeff Piotrowski do his live coverage while inside of Harvey and was blown away (no pun intended). Being near the NE coast here in allentown, I can't help but get nervous when one is near by haha...

One thing, however, Sandy had in common with other NE hurricanes is that she was undergoing an extratropical transition (i.e. becoming a hybrid system). Although this change was more pronounced than in most cases. One of the few good analogs I've found for Sandy, in terms of system evolution and structure if not path, was the infamous "Snowicane" of October 1804 -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_Snow_hurricane

But I digress, back to Irma.

[cycloneye]

@philklotzbach
#Irma now has max winds of 60 mph - the strongest a named storm has been this far east in the tropical Atlantic since Grace (2015).

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/903019887269785601

[Kingarabian]

Must be a pain in the ... to track the CV systems. SSD updates like every hour?

[RL3AO]

Must be a pain in the ... to track the CV systems. SSD updates like every hour?

We've gotten too used to GOES-16 already.

[Exalt]

Must be a pain in the ... to track the CV systems. SSD updates like every hour?

This is 100% a T3.5 by now.

[Sciencerocks]

Reminds me of Isabel
1. Very strong and was upgraded very far east straight to a tropical storm.
2. Went west-southwest in the central Atlantic
3. Forecasted to bomb and become a very powerful cane.
4. East coast trough

Wouldn't surprise me if it turns out like isabel at the end of the day...

If the Ecmwf is right Floyd or Fran is the better analog maybe.

[KWT]

Must be a pain in the ... to track the CV systems. SSD updates like every hour?

We've got 30 mins updates here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=15

Still its not exactly the 1 min updates we've been used to with Harvey.

Irma is still chugging along nicely, maybe a hair north of west now, but not by much. Going to be a long few days of tracking this before we get into the range where we can have a little confidence in the track.

I'm personally liking a mix between Earl 2010 and Irene 2011 at the moment.

[Kingarabian]

Must be a pain in the ... to track the CV systems. SSD updates like every hour?

We've got 30 mins updates here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=15

Still its not exactly the 1 min updates we've been used to with Harvey.

Irma is still chugging along nicely, maybe a hair north of west now, but not by much. Going to be a long few days of tracking this before we get into the range where we can have a little confidence in the track.

I'm personally liking a mix between Earl 2010 and Irene 2011 at the moment.

Agreed. Too bad the models are gonna windshield wipe like no tomorrow a for about a week thus keeping everyone in the SE/E/NE coast states on edge

Thank you for the link.

[meriland29]

Reminds me of Isabel
1. Very strong and was upgraded very far east straight to a tropical storm.
2. Went west-southwest in the central Atlantic
3. Forecasted to bomb and become a very powerful cane.
4. East coast trough

Wouldn't surprise me if it turns out like isabel at the end of the day...

If the Ecmwf is right Floyd or Fran is the better analog maybe.

And they are both female names starting with the letter I, not that that bears much significance.

[cycloneye]

Video discussion of Irma by Levi Cowan.As always he does these videos in a simple way to explain all the factors.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... of-mexico/

[Hurricaneman]

The track the next 96 hrs seems pretty easy with the ridge causing a possible WSW motion but after that the lesser Antilles and possibly Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and after that anywhere from New Foundland to the Eastern GOM including the Bahamas and Bermuda need to keep tabs on this as track past 5 days is a crapshoot

[Cunxi Huang]

I would go with 60kts right now.. ... hurricane by 11pm ? I mentioned it this morning as a possibly after seeing the trend.

my experience + many documents have told me that never ever look at the scatterometer of WindSAT. It always overestimate wind speed.
Look ASCAT instead.

[stormreader]

Anything under 920 seems like fairytale stuff to me. There are just some extremes even a hurricane can't achieve at that size...

Cat 5 is <920. Hardly the stuff of fairytales.

Unless it's Grimm fairytale...

Talk of Cat 5's got me thinking. Looked at this website with tracks of hurricanes believed to be Cat 5's at some time in their lifespans. Not a whole lot of fishes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_C ... icanes.png

[Aric Dunn]

persistant ball of convection rotating over the center.. its happening fast..

[Evenstar]

Reminds me of Isabel
1. Very strong and was upgraded very far east straight to a tropical storm.
2. Went west-southwest in the central Atlantic
3. Forecasted to bomb and become a very powerful cane.
4. East coast trough

Wouldn't surprise me if it turns out like isabel at the end of the day...

If the Ecmwf is right Floyd or Fran is the better analog maybe.

And they are both female names starting with the letter I, not that that bears much significance.

I've come to believe that tracking hurricanes is 3/4 science and 1/4 voodoo.

The voodoo priestess in me thinks it's interesting that several of our most famous and/or destructive storms have names starting with "I". Isabel, Ike, Ivan, Irene, et al...

[stormreader]

Reminds me of Isabel
1. Very strong and was upgraded very far east straight to a tropical storm.
2. Went west-southwest in the central Atlantic
3. Forecasted to bomb and become a very powerful cane.
4. East coast trough

Wouldn't surprise me if it turns out like isabel at the end of the day...

If the Ecmwf is right Floyd or Fran is the better analog maybe.

And they are both female names starting with the letter I, not that that bears much significance.

I've come to believe that tracking hurricanes is 3/4 science and 1/4 voodoo.

The voodoo priestess in me thinks it's interesting that several of our most famous and/or destructive storms have names starting with "I". Isabel, Ike, Ivan, Irene, et al...

Somehow, I knew you would appreciate a post about hurricanes and our own private "dreamscape".

[Exalt]

This is giving me reaaaaaally bad vibes, the most recent two hurricanes to make landfall in Virginia have been I names, Irene and Isabel, if I remember correctly.. I don't like this at all. I hate to be grim, but I just have a terrible feeling.

[stormreader]

This is giving me reaaaaaally bad vibes, the most recent two hurricanes to make landfall in Virginia have been I names, Irene and Isabel, if I remember correctly.. I don't like this at all. I hate to be grim, but I just have a terrible feeling.

Someone very close to me was named "Irma". Not a very common name at all, anymore. Have to ask the priestess, but seems like a lot of power in that name.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I would go with 60kts right now.. ... hurricane by 11pm ? I mentioned it this morning as a possibly after seeing the trend.

my experience + many documents have told me that never ever look at the scatterometer of WindSAT. It always overestimate wind speed.
Look ASCAT instead.

Usually when Aric posts what he is seeing and what he thinks is happening with a system,
you can take it too the bank.

[Aric Dunn]

I would go with 60kts right now.. ... hurricane by 11pm ? I mentioned it this morning as a possibly after seeing the trend.

my experience + many documents have told me that never ever look at the scatterometer of WindSAT. It always overestimate wind speed.
Look ASCAT instead.

Usually when Aric posts what he is seeing and what he thinks is happening with a system,
you can take it too the bank.

Also CUNXI I posted a follow up to this explainning it a little more.