ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

Cat 5 is <920. Hardly the stuff of fairytales.

Unless it's Grimm fairytale...

Talk of Cat 5's got me thinking. Looked at this website with tracks of hurricanes believed to be Cat 5's at some time in their lifespans. Not a whole lot of fishes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_C ... icanes.png

That's largely a product of all the warmest waters of the basin being to the west near the landmasses. Sea surface temperatures are overemphasized at times, but category 5s need the extra instability that very warm sea surface temperatures bring. The Canary Current influenced Eastern Atlantic is generally just too cool for them. Only two category 5s have been recorded or estimated east of 55ºW, and just barely: Hugo '89 at 54.6ºW and Isabel '03 at 54.8ºW.

[KWT]

Getting a real classic look and the models are really ramping up intensity. Once you get above 115kts you really are at the whim of internal structure and how that evolves, this one could have a chance of flirting with cat-5 if it doesn't stray too far north. Isabel showed you can get 5's ad we've had a couple of close shaves (Joaquin was close) as well in that neck of the woods.

[meriland29]

This is giving me reaaaaaally bad vibes, the most recent two hurricanes to make landfall in Virginia have been I names, Irene and Isabel, if I remember correctly.. I don't like this at all. I hate to be grim, but I just have a terrible feeling.

Someone very close to me was named "Irma". Not a very common name at all, anymore. Have to ask the priestess, but seems like a lot of power in that name.

Yeah, like bertha or something lol

[gatorcane]

Stronger means it should lose more latitude when ridge builds in. Stronger does not mean it will gain more latitude in this case.

[Evenstar]

This is giving me reaaaaaally bad vibes, the most recent two hurricanes to make landfall in Virginia have been I names, Irene and Isabel, if I remember correctly.. I don't like this at all. I hate to be grim, but I just have a terrible feeling.

Someone very close to me was named "Irma". Not a very common name at all, anymore. Have to ask the priestess, but seems like a lot of power in that name.

Alarmingly, my Dad wanted to name me Irma (grandmother's middle name), but my Mom put the kibosh on that (thank gawd). I've hated that name ever since I heard that story. My inner voodoo priestess tells me this is not a good sign.

[HurricaneRyan]

PLEASE stay over the ocean. Not here for ANOTHER I storm getting retired. Bad storms are inevitable and its a part of life, but I'd rather have a different letter take the cake.

[floridasun78]

i bet when first plane go in we have strong cat 3 i bet islands leewards are getting worry as storm get bigger hopping go north of them i hope do

[tarheelprogrammer]

SSTs in its path are not too warm are they at that far north?

[gatorcane]

If the GFS is correct it should noticeably start gaining latitude especially later tonight. I see no sign of it gaining latitude right now:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Exalt]

This is giving me reaaaaaally bad vibes, the most recent two hurricanes to make landfall in Virginia have been I names, Irene and Isabel, if I remember correctly.. I don't like this at all. I hate to be grim, but I just have a terrible feeling.

Someone very close to me was named "Irma". Not a very common name at all, anymore. Have to ask the priestess, but seems like a lot of power in that name.

Alarmingly, my Dad wanted to name me Irma (grandmother's middle name), but my Mom put the kibosh on that (thank gawd). I've hated that name ever since I heard that story. My inner voodoo priestess tells me this is not a good sign.

Most of the past I names since Isabel have been strong CONUS (quite a few East Coast as well) or Mexico landfalls, with Ingrid, Irene, Ike, Ivan, Isabel and strong landfalls like Ida or Isaac. A scary amount of I names have been retired lately as well with Ingrid, Irene, Ike, Igor, Ivan, and Isabel.

[Exalt]

SSTs in its path are not too warm are they at that far north?

With the WSW bend, SSTs in Irma's path are more than sufficiently warm.

[KWT]

If the GFS is correct it should noticeably start gaining latitude especially later tonight. I see no sign of it gaining latitude right now:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Nope, I've been watching it quite closely today and no real signs of any gaining in latitude. The 12z GFS had this at 17N around 06-09z, which is now only 6hrs away or so.

Most of the ensembles are trying to pull this system due NW and then bend back north of west before the bend back, starting to doubt that pull north happens to any great degree. NHC track looking good IMO.

[stormreader]

Unless it's Grimm fairytale...

Talk of Cat 5's got me thinking. Looked at this website with tracks of hurricanes believed to be Cat 5's at some time in their lifespans. Not a whole lot of fishes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_C ... icanes.png

That's largely a product of all the warmest waters of the basin being to the west near the landmasses. Sea surface temperatures are overemphasized at times, but category 5s need the extra instability that very warm sea surface temperatures bring. The Canary Current influenced Eastern Atlantic is generally just too cool for them. Only two category 5s have been recorded or estimated east of 55ºW, and just barely: Hugo '89 at 54.6ºW and Isabel '03 at 54.8ºW.

Yes. The warm waters of the NW Caribbean come to mind when thinking of Cat 5's. Close to home, so therefore those tracks close in to the US mainland. But interesting that the two you mentioned that formed east of 55 degrees, both affected the US.

[stormreader]

This is giving me reaaaaaally bad vibes, the most recent two hurricanes to make landfall in Virginia have been I names, Irene and Isabel, if I remember correctly.. I don't like this at all. I hate to be grim, but I just have a terrible feeling.

Someone very close to me was named "Irma". Not a very common name at all, anymore. Have to ask the priestess, but seems like a lot of power in that name.

Alarmingly, my Dad wanted to name me Irma (grandmother's middle name), but my Mom put the kibosh on that (thank gawd). I've hated that name ever since I heard that story. My inner voodoo priestess tells me this is not a good sign.

Could be your own genuine inner name--or name most befitting you spiritually. In your family, too. Perhaps why you feel the connection.

[weathaguyry]

Agreed, this is giving me bad vibes as a strong hit somewhere

[AxaltaRacing24]

SSTs in its path are not too warm are they at that far north?

They are at their coolest during the next few days before a ramp up to near 30 C

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 55kts.

AL, 11, 2017083100, , BEST, 0, 163N, 318W, 55, 999, TS

[stormreader]

Got this off one of those "meaning of your name sites".

Irma

It comes from the German,
and its meaning is "powerful"

[floridasun78]

when early plane could fly to IRMA ?

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903018745416880130




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903024339766923268




Ventrice not sold on the future intensity of Irma