ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

when early plane could fly to IRMA ?

Based on the current track/forecast, I'd guess Tuesday. There's always a chance NOAA flys a UAV out there, but that will only give us dropsondes around the storm.

[HurricaneEric]

Stronger means it should lose more latitude when ridge builds in. Stronger does not mean it will gain more latitude in this case.

Amateur here. Can you explain why that is? Does a stronger storm feel the effects of a ridge more? Does it actually amplify the ridge? All of the above? None?

[BensonTCwatcher]

If the GFS is correct it should noticeably start gaining latitude especially later tonight. I see no sign of it gaining latitude right now:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Nope, I've been watching it quite closely today and no real signs of any gaining in latitude. The 12z GFS had this at 17N around 06-09z, which is now only 6hrs away or so.

Most of the ensembles are trying to pull this system due NW and then bend back north of west before the bend back, starting to doubt that pull north happens to any great degree. NHC track looking good IMO.

You two are onto something. Actually GFS has this at least 17N by 6z, we'll see tonite, but that's a long way north in 6 hours

[RL3AO]

Stronger means it should lose more latitude when ridge builds in. Stronger does not mean it will gain more latitude in this case.

Amateur here. Can you explain why that is? Does a stronger storm feel the effects of a ridge more? Does it actually amplify the ridge? All of the above? None?

A stronger hurricane will be steered more by the upper level winds. In this case, the upper level winds (in the black box) are more from the northeast which will give the storm a west-southwest motion...especially a strong storm.

[floridasun78]

if high build too strong could cause IRMA into Caribbean until find weakness that be key how strong will high be

[Evenstar]

Got this off one of those "meaning of your name sites".

Irma

It comes from the German,
and its meaning is "powerful"

I hear voodoo drums in the distance...

[cycloneye]

RL3AO,those gray clouds that extend to the NE from Irma,what is causing that stretch to that direction?

[Joe Snow]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903018745416880130




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903024339766923268




Ventrice not sold on the future intensity of Irma

BUT if you read the ensuing replies they down play his theory.

[HurricaneEric]

Amateur here. Can you explain why that is? Does a stronger storm feel the effects of a ridge more? Does it actually amplify the ridge? All of the above? None?

A stronger hurricane will be steered more by the upper level winds. In this case, the upper level winds (in the black box) are more from the northeast which will give the storm a west-southwest motion...especially a strong storm.

http://i.imgur.com/zkfnVB1.jpg

Thanks a lot RL3AO, really appreciate the patience you pros have w/ us noobs

Thats a very concerning trend then.. I think its safe to say those in the Lesser Antilles and PR should start worrying about a potential strike if this trend continues. Too early to tell beyond that.

[RL3AO]

RL3AO,those gray clouds that extend to the NE from Irma,what is causing that stretch to that direction?

Looks like shear vorticity and then a weak upper low forming.

[BYG Jacob]

If this ends up going past the LA what are the odds she gets into the GoM

[RL3AO]

BUT if you read the ensuing replies they down play his theory.

I think it's the opposite of a few weeks ago. A Kelvin wave couldn't overcome the very strong negative conditions. In this case, I don't think a suppressed Kelvin wave can shut down the very favorable conditions. It may impact a marginal case more, but the Atlantic two weeks ago and the Atlantic now, are not marginal cases. It's gone from very negative to very positive.

[BYG Jacob]

Thought shear was supposed to be minimal?

[O Town]

[BYG Jacob]

That is a very good looking TS, don't think we're far off from a hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

we already have numerous hot towers rotating around. CDO is quickly becoming established.. likely will have an EYE by morning. if not later tonight..

[BYG Jacob]

we already have numerous hot towers rotating around. CDO is quickly becoming established.. likely will have an EYE by morning. if not later tonight..

We'll probably wake up to a strong cat 1 or cat 2 IMO.

[Exalt]

I've said it once already and I'll say it again, that outflow is stellar.

[BYG Jacob]

I've said it once already and I'll say it again, that outflow is stellar.

Shockingly good for a TS. Should only improve as Irma continues to intensify.

[psyclone]

I love that spiral like galaxy appearance to Irma. it looks like a classic big hurricane in a formative state. The I's have it.