ATL: IRMA - Models

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wxmann_91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1041 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:23 am

Siker wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Ignoring the exact track of the hurricane for a moment, the Euro did trend stronger with the ULL in front of future Irma, closer to the GFS. Closed height contours at H5 at hr 96 vs open in last night's run.


It also had higher heights south and southeast of the ULL for what that might contribute to steering.


Yeah, it does seem the Euro has a more compact ULL that perturbs the ridging north of Irma a little less than the GFS, even though the two have converged on position.

This is one of those setups where the geometry of the ridge >>> the strength of the ridge.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1042 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:27 am

Hr 120
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Ridge looks flat
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1043 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:29 am

Pretty damn south
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1044 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:29 am

hr 144

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1045 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:30 am

144 hours appears to be 2.5 degrees further to the west-southwest from the 12z.

About to hit the islands.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1046 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:30 am

What does a flat ridge imply though?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1047 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:33 am

meriland29 wrote:What does a flat ridge imply though?

Just keeps steering it basically due west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1048 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:34 am

Sciencerocks wrote:144 hours appears to be 2.5 degrees further to the west-southwest from the 12z.

About to hit the islands.


If your using the toggle switch on tropical tidbits to compare the previous run then your comparing tonight's 0z run to yesterday's 0z run..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1049 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:35 am

meriland29 wrote:What does a flat ridge imply though?


TC's tend to follow the path of least resistance. Think of a ridge as a barrier of sorts. In the GFS solution, the ULL sucks the barrier in such that it lies in a SE-NW orientation. So Irma starts gaining latitude earlier. In the Euro solution, the ULL doesn't affect the barrier as much, and it lies in a E-W orientation (the flatter ridge). This solution would put many of the Lesser Antilles, PR, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas in greater danger down the road.
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1050 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:37 am

Image

168 hr
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1051 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:37 am

Puerto Rico soon to be in the right front quadrant this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1052 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:38 am

Appears to be shredder bound
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1053 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:40 am

After 96 hrs, GFS / Euro are night and day
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1054 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:42 am

192

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1055 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:45 am

Landfalls in extreme northern Hispanola at hour 192. Looks like the ridge is blocking any kind of escape this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1056 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:46 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:Landfalls in extreme northern Hispanola at hour 192. Looks like the ridge is blocking any kind of escape this run.

Imagine the hype if this thing shows a FL landfall
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1057 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:46 am

Hmmm, interesting - direct bullseye hit on Hispaniola. Since it's day 8, this means Irma is likely to NOT go thru the shredder.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1058 Postby meriland29 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:47 am

If that panned out, it would be shredded by those mtns
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1059 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:48 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Landfalls in extreme northern Hispanola at hour 192. Looks like the ridge is blocking any kind of escape this run.

Imagine the hype if this thing shows a FL landfall


I think it might this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1060 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:49 am

meriland29 wrote:If that panned out, it would be shredded by those mtns


That is the only thing saving the United States this run.
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