yep, as nhc continues with a bias towards the southerly route and euro holding tough the gfs solutions to this point appear to be becoming less likely with time..lets see how the model responds with the continued motion of the system..the ots was the best bet for the untired states now we are going to need to rely on the shredder or possible a deep southerly route into CA or mexSFLcane wrote:Though still large disagreement those EPS members got your attention if your in Florida.
ATL: IRMA - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
jlauderdal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7183
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
06z GFS still going the same direction as the previous runs, certainly being very consistent from run to run. Upto 20N around 57W, quite a way north of where the NHC is around a similar longitude.
One of these models is going to have to back down sooner rather than later, wonder if we see that on the 12z suite. Still too early to say which solution is right, I'd probably side with the ECM if you held a gun to my head.
GFS also back on board with developing a Gulf storm and that will muddy and complicate things on this run!
One of these models is going to have to back down sooner rather than later, wonder if we see that on the 12z suite. Still too early to say which solution is right, I'd probably side with the ECM if you held a gun to my head.
GFS also back on board with developing a Gulf storm and that will muddy and complicate things on this run!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Not seeing recurve here in 06z at 216hr...looks to be beelining twards the SE Coast...
0 likes
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Totally different evolution on the 06z GFS with regards to the upper trough!
Very similar evolution to ther 00z ECM and IMO a far more realistic representation of what happens with the upper trough which is weaker and doesn't leave a gapping late October weakness open.
Still too far north IMO in the mid term but the pattern looks much more like what you'd expect in early September.
Very similar evolution to ther 00z ECM and IMO a far more realistic representation of what happens with the upper trough which is weaker and doesn't leave a gapping late October weakness open.
Still too far north IMO in the mid term but the pattern looks much more like what you'd expect in early September.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
USTropics
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2656
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Not seeing recurve here in 06z at 216hr...looks to be beelining twards the SE Coast...
Blocking high to the north, no imminent recurve:
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Trough over the US (which picks up a Gulf storm on the 06z GFS) becomes cutoff, similar to the Euro, as heights rise across the western Atlantic. Should see a Carolina strike this run. Too early to call this cutting off of the trough a "trend", but that scenario would virtually guarantee a US landfall.
0 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Not seeing recurve here in 06z at 216hr...looks to be beelining twards the SE Coast...
No way out on this run, its going to be a US landfall its just where about.
Track on the 06z is basically another Isabel. I personally think it is too far north still, so expect some further mid term corrections to the south, basically every run on the GFS recently has slightly adjusted WSW regardless of set-up aloft.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
USTropics wrote:Down to 896mb:
Sub 900 cane gonna blow up SC in the 06z...Huge westward swing in the GFS..
0 likes
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests