ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#561 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:10 am

ADT climbing
Convection very close to the CoC.
It does look like a bit of an eye.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#562 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:15 am

@EricBlake12
As #Harvey exits the scene, all eyes turn to #Irma as it potentially sets its sights on the NE Caribbean and then...? Long week ahead!


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/903190361388064768


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#563 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:15 am

Yup, that's an eyewall all right.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#564 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:19 am

Multi Satellite Intensity Estimate

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#565 Postby flamingosun » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:23 am

Winds already up to 70 mph
Well, yikes
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#566 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:26 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#567 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:44 am

Looks like it maybe finally starting to gain a little latitude. System seems to be wrapping up very nicely at the moment and is well on its way to becoming a hurricane for sure. Just a question of when the NHC pull the trigger.

Cycloneye, starting to beocme really interesting for you guys in the NE Caribbean, thankfully the GFS still gaining plenty of latitude but question marks over whether its too quick in lifting Irma out from its WSW bend.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#568 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:51 am

GCANE wrote:[img]http://i.imgur.com/LFV9TUw.gif[/mg]


Very compact core. Expecting it to expand eventually?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#569 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:59 am

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
30s
GFS looks too far north even with 06z Carolina disaster run.Advising clients in Leewards /PR to start preparations for possible
major impact
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#570 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:01 am

Kingarabian wrote:
GCANE wrote:[img]http://i.imgur.com/LFV9TUw.gif[/mg]


Very compact core. Expecting it to expand eventually?


Not too sure.
Mid-layer dry air may keep a lid on it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#571 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:15 am

Looks like towers firing on an eyewall spewing cirrus which is masking a possible eye.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#572 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:17 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#573 Postby CourierPR » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:17 am

jlauderdal wrote:Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
30s
GFS looks too far north even with 06z Carolina disaster run.Advising clients in Leewards /PR to start preparations for possible
major impact


"Irma MAJOR threat to Leewards / PR Tue,Wed further west including US after." quote by Met. Joe Bastardi
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#574 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:19 am

jlauderdal wrote:Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
30s
GFS looks too far north even with 06z Carolina disaster run.Advising clients in Leewards /PR to start preparations for possible
major impact


Given the trend in the last 24hrs I think that is probably a wise idea and I think if I were in the Leewards I'd already be keeping eye towards the preparations.

Quite clear where the center is based on the last 2hr Vis. loops, center does appear to be lifting a touch as well now. Some good convection over the center which as GCANE said is masking any proto eye.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#575 Postby Ken711 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:44 am

This looks like an Isabel track.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#576 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:44 am

Latest.
37GHz from Windsat

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#577 Postby Michele B » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:48 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:As far as I know the USA has never been struck by two category 4 or higher hurricanes in the same year, however the USA has been struck by multiple major hurricanes in the same year. Not that any of this information means anything but it is still a interesting stat.

For years I was bringing up the equilibrium concept of hurricane seasons and after the 12 year "no majors hitting US" drought isn't it interesting that when one finally hit it wasn't just any category 3 TC, but what is guaranteed to be the costliest natural disaster in American history? Happens to be a rare (even more so) CAT4 strike. Whether or not Harvey was enough to make up for 12 years of no 100 knot winds occurring there is the question. Equilibrium - that's the policy.

[b]Nature tends toward two things...equilibrium and chaos.[/b]



Wise statement.

People are always asking "Why?" when nature brings events like the one we are watching unfold in TX.

The answer to the "why" is above, from Andrew.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#578 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:49 am

Great looking inner core there GCANE with a clear spot where the eye is at that point. I think it may have gained a little latitude since that point but lets wait and see what the next few hours bring.

Either way still got a classic look to it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#579 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:50 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#580 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:52 am



Wow what a cool angle to see Irma at! At sunrise you can see a great look overshooting top as well. Also you can see clearly where the center is going to form. Eventually this is going to get into better range of the satellites.
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